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I have some thoughts on the immigration discussion and I wanted to just shout them into the void.
I have a very unique perspective on this issue. I worked at an immigration law firm and in public criminal defense. I voted for Kamala, but do not consider myself a liberal. I'm extremely involved in the immigrant community of my native origin, I know many people who will be personally affected by changes to immigration policy.
1. Democrats are fearmongering/overreacting: there's been a line that has been floated in the past few days since the election result was clear that Trump will drive up mass deportations that will send half the affordable workforce away, prices will skyrocket, Americans will suffer, etc. I don't think this is realistic. I'll be the first to admit that I don't follow Trump's rallies and his speeches very closely. But my understanding of his policy position was that he wants to deport undocumented persons convicted of crimes en masse, at least that this would be his primary focus.
I have represented a lot of people without papers, especially in the criminal defense work. I do not think that undocumented persons are more likely than anyone else in the same socioeconomic groups to commit crimes, I want to be clear on that. In fact, breaking the numbers down with my friends in the industry, I think they may be slightly less likely to do so. However, of those that do commit crimes...we're not talking about your highly industrious citizenry. There is a subset of the undocumented class that works very hard, is very economically productive, and is vital to our workforce. There is a subset of undocumented people who, usually come with lofty goals of supporting their family abroad but either run into issues with substances or issues with assimilating and run with the wrong crowd. There isn't a whole lot of overlap with these subsets. Many in the latter subset struggle to maintain employment, or they are relatively low productivity workers when they are employed. On the other hand, the appear repeatedly in the system, and end up costing the state a non-trivial amount of resources.
There are a lot of statewide laws preventing local LEO from working with ICE, ICE's resources are stretched thin and to be clear, even under Trump 45 they were stretched thin. There will have to be target prioritization, whether Trump likes it or not. Which is to say, even if Trump wanted to deport every illegal immigrant regardless of criminality, which I'm not convinced he does, he will have to focus on deporting only those with records. So I'm really not worried about these "mass deportation waves" having a tremendous economic impact. I think the large underbelly of the economy, the hardworking undocumented worker and his family, will likely go untouched, if for no other reason as a matter of necessity.
2. Trump presidency will be bad for immigration: I am still very concerned about immigration policy under Trump 47. A lot of lip service has been given to wanted legal immigration in the campaign trail. However, the track record shows otherwise. I worked in immigration (not as an attorney) during 45 and although I'm far from a subject matter expert, I know people who are. 45 was a very rough time to be a legal immigrant, particularly in 2019-2020. Especially when it comes to F1, H1B, O1, EB1A, Green Card approvals, these are areas that I think are of tremendous importance to the country's economic prowess and competitiveness.
I do not imagine that they will get better under Trump. I think at the very best case, dream scenario, is that they do not get worse under Trump, than under Biden. And from people in the field, I know they strongly anticipate that it will get worse. These immigrants are the backbone of our country and our economy, and they have tremendous potential to be excellent American citizens. Trump gave a lot of lip service to support for legal immigration. I hope that is reflected in USCIS' policies moving forward.
I've spoken with many legal immigrants. And they are concerned by the actions of undisciplined/unruly undocumented immigrants. I think something that the left often misses is that the victims of crimes committed by illegal immigrants...they're not your wealthy white people. They are usually other poor white, poor hispanic, or poor black people. Thus, they have a more nuanced approach to these issues than "he says he will deport people so I will rage!" If Trump's immigration policy can have the precision to remove only those immigrants who have a record of being a blight on their communities, I think it could end up being very popular and even successful. But if the best and the brightest, engineers, doctors, lawyers, researchers in our universities have to be turned away, perhaps due to some nativist bias. I think that will have very bad downstream effects for American competitiveness in the global economy moving forward.
I have a very unique perspective on this issue. I worked at an immigration law firm and in public criminal defense. I voted for Kamala, but do not consider myself a liberal. I'm extremely involved in the immigrant community of my native origin, I know many people who will be personally affected by changes to immigration policy.
1. Democrats are fearmongering/overreacting: there's been a line that has been floated in the past few days since the election result was clear that Trump will drive up mass deportations that will send half the affordable workforce away, prices will skyrocket, Americans will suffer, etc. I don't think this is realistic. I'll be the first to admit that I don't follow Trump's rallies and his speeches very closely. But my understanding of his policy position was that he wants to deport undocumented persons convicted of crimes en masse, at least that this would be his primary focus.
I have represented a lot of people without papers, especially in the criminal defense work. I do not think that undocumented persons are more likely than anyone else in the same socioeconomic groups to commit crimes, I want to be clear on that. In fact, breaking the numbers down with my friends in the industry, I think they may be slightly less likely to do so. However, of those that do commit crimes...we're not talking about your highly industrious citizenry. There is a subset of the undocumented class that works very hard, is very economically productive, and is vital to our workforce. There is a subset of undocumented people who, usually come with lofty goals of supporting their family abroad but either run into issues with substances or issues with assimilating and run with the wrong crowd. There isn't a whole lot of overlap with these subsets. Many in the latter subset struggle to maintain employment, or they are relatively low productivity workers when they are employed. On the other hand, the appear repeatedly in the system, and end up costing the state a non-trivial amount of resources.
There are a lot of statewide laws preventing local LEO from working with ICE, ICE's resources are stretched thin and to be clear, even under Trump 45 they were stretched thin. There will have to be target prioritization, whether Trump likes it or not. Which is to say, even if Trump wanted to deport every illegal immigrant regardless of criminality, which I'm not convinced he does, he will have to focus on deporting only those with records. So I'm really not worried about these "mass deportation waves" having a tremendous economic impact. I think the large underbelly of the economy, the hardworking undocumented worker and his family, will likely go untouched, if for no other reason as a matter of necessity.
2. Trump presidency will be bad for immigration: I am still very concerned about immigration policy under Trump 47. A lot of lip service has been given to wanted legal immigration in the campaign trail. However, the track record shows otherwise. I worked in immigration (not as an attorney) during 45 and although I'm far from a subject matter expert, I know people who are. 45 was a very rough time to be a legal immigrant, particularly in 2019-2020. Especially when it comes to F1, H1B, O1, EB1A, Green Card approvals, these are areas that I think are of tremendous importance to the country's economic prowess and competitiveness.
I do not imagine that they will get better under Trump. I think at the very best case, dream scenario, is that they do not get worse under Trump, than under Biden. And from people in the field, I know they strongly anticipate that it will get worse. These immigrants are the backbone of our country and our economy, and they have tremendous potential to be excellent American citizens. Trump gave a lot of lip service to support for legal immigration. I hope that is reflected in USCIS' policies moving forward.
I've spoken with many legal immigrants. And they are concerned by the actions of undisciplined/unruly undocumented immigrants. I think something that the left often misses is that the victims of crimes committed by illegal immigrants...they're not your wealthy white people. They are usually other poor white, poor hispanic, or poor black people. Thus, they have a more nuanced approach to these issues than "he says he will deport people so I will rage!" If Trump's immigration policy can have the precision to remove only those immigrants who have a record of being a blight on their communities, I think it could end up being very popular and even successful. But if the best and the brightest, engineers, doctors, lawyers, researchers in our universities have to be turned away, perhaps due to some nativist bias. I think that will have very bad downstream effects for American competitiveness in the global economy moving forward.
