Loco Tony has an IRON chin.
He would survive the storm that first round McG brings, take over the fight in the second round, choke out McG in the third.
I tend to agree with this basic assessment.
I am a fan of both fighters and have watched and studied both.
I think Tony is better equipped to survive in Conor's world than the other way around.
Conor will have the striking advantage, he is faster, his punches are more accurate and he has possibly the best counter striking in the UFC. He could possibly exploit Sloppiness in Tony's striking defense that he has gotten away with with less lethal strikers in the past. If Lando can catch Tony and rock him, Conor can definitely hurt him. Has Tony tightened up these holes? I am inclined to think not because his ego probably tells him he can get away with it because it has worked this far, but all things come to an end eventually.
Tony has a great chin and he strikes differently than most, he is great with angles and very creative. This could make it harder for Conor to time him and find openings because unlike other strikers tony is less likely to repeat the same motions and techniques.
But if/when it goes it goes into Tony's world.... Conor is fucked.
Tony's subs are dangerous, he applies them quickly and is great at creating submission opportunities.
Tony can also beat Conor with Cardio. As Conor fades Tony will be just getting warmed up and he can sustain if not increase his pace as the fight goes on. In both of Conor's recent losses this was the deciding factor as he gassed and couldn't keep his hands up or slip fast enough to avoid strikes. Tony will SWARM him if that happens and won't give Conor breathing room to survive.
Tony also has power and Conor has shown that a clean shot when he is fatigued can open up his defense and lead to more strikes. I actually think if Tony gets a tko standing t is more likely to be "not intelligently defending" a barrage of strikes rather than a KO or knockdown. I think Conor's chin will hold up better than his cardio.
All that said I believe either man can win and probably favor Conor slightly just because he will probably have a chance to "play his game" first and if things go his way Tony won't get to return the favor. If it makes it out of round 1, I favor Tony and I think Conor needs to either finish in the first or do enough damage that Tony can't ever get momentum going. Once the tide turns it won't likely turn back.