This is Ellenberger's fight to win.

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by Handawg, May 13, 2014.

  1. Handawg

    Handawg Brown Belt

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    Big fan of both guys, have been for a while, and I truly believe people are sleeping on Jake because 1) They haven't seen him fight in a while, or ever, or 2) The last time we did see him fight, we saw the atrocity that was the Rory MacDonald fight.

    I really think Lawlers in trouble here. Going into Shields/Ellenberger, I remember people saying that Shields was gonna gas him out on the ground and get the decision, and even though there were rough circumstances for Shields (Dad died 2 weeks before the fight,) Ellenberger did what no one else has ever done, knock Jake Shields the fuck out.

    Lawler is hit or miss. Extremely strong at 170 and can make Jake struggle with some defensive wrestling, but I don't think he can handle Ellenberger's speed and his overall hunger. I expect to see the best Ellenberger we've ever seen, and I expect to see a Lawler coming off of the biggest loss of his career.


    Not saying Lawler can't win, I think he has to use his strength to slow Ellenberger down, gas him out, and knock him out. That is the only way I see Lawler winning this, and if he weathers an early storm (ala Kampmann,) we've seen how that can turn out for Jake.


    I can really see a KO for Jake here if he isn't too wild and closes the distance like he did in that Marquardt fight, he did the same against Condit too but couldn't break the iron chin that belongs to Condit.

    This is such a fucking great matchup though, making my goddamn head spin. Who do you guys have?
     
  2. fernandom

    fernandom Purple Belt

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    Jake has power but I don't see him being able to catch Lawler or take him down

    Lawler wins by UD I think
     
  3. doomy200

    doomy200 Brown Belt

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    Lawler is a more dynamic striker, Ellenberger has faster hands and more power

    Rory showed that Ellenberger is really stiff, whereas Lawler has shown to be much more adaptable

    This is a very close fight though

    EDIT: I don't see this one going the distance, this is actually my most anticipated fight for UFC 173
     
  4. jiujitsuforever

    jiujitsuforever Banned Banned

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    I could see Robbie by ko, or a war, also Jake by war, wrestling decision, or possibly even 1st round tko
     
  5. robjenkins2

    robjenkins2 Gold Belt

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    Lawler is better everywhere imo, he wins by violent KO
     
  6. FeloniousMonk

    FeloniousMonk Red Belt

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    I agree with you that it's a dangerous fight for both fighters and that people are sleeping on Juggernaut. But I disagree about him not getting wild. I think Jake's best shot in this fight is to fight fire with fire and goad Lawler into a brawl. Ellenberger has the power to put out a heavyweight if he lands cleanly. If he lets Robbie get into a groove whatsoever, he'll begin to get overwhelmed by Lawler's variety of strikes and be hesitant to engage. He needs to go in there ready for a fight. And if he is, it could be an incredibly short night for Lawler.

    The thing that intrigues me the most about this fight is that both fighters are the kind of dudes who put in the work to get better and correct mistakes. I got Lawler by decision. Only other outcome I see is Ellenberger by KO but I think Lawler is too polished and experienced at this point to allow himself to get into too much danger.
     
  7. countswagula

    countswagula Gold Belt

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    I think Lawler is better overall, but that won't matter if Ellenburger touches his chin. I would be very surprised if Jake were able to beat Lawler consistently on the feet or grappling to a decision.
     
  8. Handawg

    Handawg Brown Belt

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    You think so? Ellenberger definitely has the better wrestling credentials, and i'd say he's more athletic (in terms of how fast his hands are especially.) Not knocking Lawler, I think he has the strength advantage and overall striking technique, thats what makes this matchup so damn interesting imo.
     
  9. robjenkins2

    robjenkins2 Gold Belt

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    Lawler has more power and a better chin imo, Jake should be the one worried about getting ktfo
     
  10. robjenkins2

    robjenkins2 Gold Belt

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    He has better credentials but he won't be taking Robbie down in a three round fight. Robbie is a whole different animal at 170, Hendricks ran into a brick wall when he tried taking him down in the early rounds. Lawler is definitely more dynamic and he isn't afraid to pull the trigger. I think Jake will lose simply because he will be hesitant to throw due to Robbie's vaunted power.
     
  11. doomy200

    doomy200 Brown Belt

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    Anyone fighting Ellenberger better be worried about gettign ktfo
     
  12. robjenkins2

    robjenkins2 Gold Belt

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    Obviously, but Robbie has fought huge power guys before and wasn't hesitant, where as I've seen Ellenberger hesitant to pull the trigger before.
     
  13. Loisaida

    Loisaida Green Belt

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    I haven't really seen people sleeping on Ellenberger, it's just most think he'll lose, like I do. Lawler has looked like a top tier fighter since coming back to WW. Even in the loss to Hendricks he looked great. Berger switches between huge ko's: Nate and Shields, and straight sleepwalking through fights. When he fought Heiron, I'm not sure I've seen a guy show less urgency against an inferior fighter outside of Anderson.
     
  14. RockyLockridge

    RockyLockridge Red Belt

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    a coin toss match for me. Either guy could end each other.
     
  15. Kentucky Deluxe

    Kentucky Deluxe Banned Banned

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    Jake can't pull the trigger sometimes, i don't see him even hurting Lawler when Hendricks couldn't.

    I think its Lawler by UD
     
  16. alpharowe3

    alpharowe3 Red Belt

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    It's crazy that Diaz could KO a 22 yr old Lawler and Hendricks couldn't do it to a 32 yr old Lawler in 5 rounds.
     
  17. theheater

    theheater Silver Belt

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    i was driving the ellenberger bandwagon for a while but after seeing his fights vs kampmann and hieron i realized he was a great fighter but never going to hold the belt. the rory fight cemented that for me. i think lawler, rory, hendricks, lombard, and probably woodley are a step up in comp and too much for him.

    im still cheering for jake but my confidence in him vs top notch comp is shot
     
  18. robjenkins2

    robjenkins2 Gold Belt

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    Dat Stockton slap
     
  19. Task

    Task <img src="http://www.mediafire.com/download/r9he12 Platinum Member

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    I am shocked that Ellenberger is higher ranked than Matt Brown
     
  20. ShreddinMMA

    ShreddinMMA Gold Belt

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    After watching nothing more than a jab stifle Ellenberger, I feel pretty confident Lawler is going to thrash him on the feet.
     

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