This is unfathomable to me. I give you credit for not being a cretin like TCK, DS, Hans, Second Sight, etc. You see the polls and the news (that polling hasn't reflected). You saw his performance last night. There's no way you think that his odds are anywhere near even.
My estimation of McGregor took a big step forward in his last fight. I was talking to a friend of mine who is a trainer and had Diaz (we'd both picked Diaz in the first fight). I said, "You'd easily be able to craft a strategy for him to win that fight--more low kicks, wait back and counter rather than lunge." He said, sure, but in his experience, even when you see an obvious change that someone can make, it's very difficult to actually get someone to make the change, especially when the guy has already had some success in his career. And he pointed out that McGregor even dissed the MT style. But he did, in fact, make great adjustments coming out. And then when he struggled anyway, he made further adjustments (slowing his pace without ceding advantage). I'd regarded him as a guy with one great weapon and a basic, effective style built around maximizing it (that is, corralling people into range for the straight left), but a pretty limited fighter. He stepped up there.
That's not getting into the specific matchup, of course. I will need to think about it more. But I'm McGregor right now. My (very crude) system has Alvarez as a very slight favorite, though. So it's unlikely that I'll bet on it unless watching more tape with the specific matchup in mind brings me over to agreeing with the system.
