The War Room Bet Thread

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waiguoren said:
Actual Clinton lead up to 1.9%. RCP average was off by less than 1.3%. National polling was good.
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Clinton national lead up to 2.1%. RCP average was off by less than 1.1%. National polling was excellent.
 
UpaLoompa said:
I don't know and have never claimed to know exactly what polls he used. Your repeated posting of RCP numbers is thus utterly irrelevant.
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RCP has the most complete collection of polls of any aggregator that I know of. Any other polling average (see: HuffPost, which excluded LA Times and other polls) would need to exclude polls that the aggregator didn't like. If Wang used an incomplete polling average, that's yet another huge mistake on his part.

1. You started out by claiming to explain why Wang's model was wrong. You just copied Wang's own explanation (meta-margin), showing again your poor critical thinking ability and over-reliance on "experts".

2. I showed your/Wang's meta-margin argument was wrong if you used a reasonable polling average. 2.5% or 2.2% state polling error both would have been sufficient to flip PA to Trump, assuming the RCP average or any other complete average.

3. Now you are no longer claiming you know the reason for Wang's mistake, saying you are just reporting what he reported.

Advice: Try to read your "experts" (Nate Silver, Paul Krugman, Sam Wang, Harry Enten,...) with the same degree of skepticism that you read the loony right wingers. Reality will come into focus much more quickly.
 
Dang it guys. I thought that argument was going to result in some type of bet
 
Lead said:
Dang it guys. I thought that argument was going to result in some type of bet
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I've been keeping my eye out. The main issue seems to be that the loony lefties have their tails between their legs at the moment.

I think in about 1 year the deranged Trumpies will get too cocky and I will be able to attack them with multiple yuge bets. Already they are acting arrogantly in the War Room.
 
waiguoren said:
I've been keeping my eye out. The main issue seems to be that the loony lefties have their tails between their legs at the moment.

I think in about 1 year the deranged Trumpies will get too cocky and I will be able to attack them with multiple yuge bets. Already they are acting arrogantly in the War Room.
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You are looking to build an epic record here

Edit- is it 4am where you are too? Tonight is fucking crazy
 
Cubo de Sangre said:
Post #1019 made homie rethink his presence. I'd totally take a stats class from @waiguoren. Who but total fucking losers dorks pussy magnets can brush up on that shit enough?
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Trust me when I say I am no stats expert. I am pretty good in calculus though, does that make me a pussy magnet?

Most experts in most fields just aren't that smart, and you often can do their job better than them if you use a bit of common sense.

Ex: Trump early voting numbers in NC looked better than Romney's. Romney won the state....yet Nate Silver and all the "experts" predicted Clinton would win NC.
 
Lead said:
You are looking to build an epic record here

Edit- is it 4am where you are too? Tonight is fucking crazy
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Nope, 5 PM. I live in China.

Why are you staying up so late?
 
Lead said:
Open Bets

#3 @Jack V Savage v. @mcveteran81
1. Obama will still be president a week after the scheduled inauguration date due to declaring a state of emergency
2. mcveteran- True Jack V Savage- False
3. 1/27/2017 (week after scheduled inauguration day)
4. Signature bet- Winner picks the loser's signature
5. 1/28/2017-2/27/2017

#11 @Jack V Savage v. @LucasWithLidOff
1. Hillary Clinton will be indicted by 12/28/2016
2. LucasWithLidOff- For, Jack V Savage- Against
3. 12/29/16
4. Avatar Bet
5. Permanent



Leader Board/Records Thingy
Jack V Savage 1-0
Hans Gruber 2-0
Tropodan 1-0
Space 1-0
Rex Kwon Do 1-0
Waiguoren 2-0


Closed Bets
#10 @VivaRevolution v. @Jack V Savage
1. Trump will be at 33% or more with Bovada's betting odds
2. VivaRevolution- For, Jack V Savage- Against
3. 11/07/16 8:00PM ESt
4. Signature bet
5. 11/08/16-12/07/16
*I will use this site to convert the betting odds to percentages http://sportsbettingsites.org/betting-tools/no-vig-calculator/'
Winner: Jack V Savage

#1 @Fawlty v. @Tropodan (Onesided)
1. Donald Trump wins general election
2. Tropodan, for. Fawlty, against.
3. 11/08/2016
4. If Trump wins the general election, Fawlty wears av of Tropodan's choosing. Freeroll (no punishment if Tropodan loses).
5. 11/08/2016-01/20/2017
Winner: Tropodan

#4 @Space v. @Lead
1. Donald Trump wins the general election
2. Space- for, Lead- against
3. 11/08/2016
4. Signature bet- winner picks losers signature
5. 11/08/2016-01/20/2017 (Election day to Inauguration day)
Winner: Space

#7 @Quipling v. @Rex Kwon Do
1. Winner of the U.S. Presidential Election
2. Quipling : Hillary - Rex :Trump
3. 11/08/16
4. Av Bet- Loser of the bet changes his av to a suitably presidential picture of the winning candidate
5.11/09/16- 12/09/16
Winner: Rex Kwon Do

#9 @m52nickerson v @Hans Gruber
1. The winner of Florida's 29 electoral votes.
2. @m52nickerson - Clinton will win, @Hans Gruber - Trump will win.
3. 11/08/16 (tentatively)
Winner: Hans Gruber

#12 @Limbo Pete v. @Lead
1. Who wins Nevada and Colorado in the 2016 Presidential Election
2. Limbo Pete- Nevada Trump/ Colorado Clinton, Lead- Colorado Trump / Nevada Clinton
3. 11/09/2016
4. Signature bet
5. 01/21/2017-02/21/2017
6. Obviously if both states go Clinton or Trump, the bet is null
Null

#13 @Hans Gruber v. @Lead
1. Trump will win Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania in the 2016 Presidential election
2. Hans - For, Lead- Against
3. 11/09/2016
4. Avatar bet
5. 11/9/2016-12/9/2016
Winner: Hans Gruber

#14 @BKMMAFAN v. @Amerikuracana
1. Who wins Michigan in the 2016 Presidential Election?
2. BKMMAFAN- Clinton, Amerikuracana- Trump
3. 11/8/16 (tentatively)
4. Signature and Avatar Bet
5. 3 months, likely 11/09/16-2/09/16
Winner: Amerikuracana

#2 @waiguoren v. @m52nickerson
1. Compare total discrepancies over four swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina)
gif.latex

where each i indexes one of the states, the p's are the predicted Clinton lead in each state and the a's are the actual Clinton lead in each state.
2. Whoever (Waiguoren using his prediction posted before noon on election day or m52nickeson with fivethirtyeight projected vote share polls plus for his prediction election day) has the smaller sum (using the equation above) wins.
3. 11/08/2016 (Election day) or slightly after depending on results coming in
4. Signature bet- winner picks losers signature
5. 11/08/2016 (expected based on #3) to 01/20/2016
Winner: Waiguoren

#5 @Concurrent GOAT v. @Rex Kwon Do
1. Percent Margin Donald Trump beats Clinton by in US Pres. election popular vote
2. Concurrent GOAT 0.1% to 2.0% Rex Kwon Doh 2.0%+
3. 11/08/16
4. Avatar bet- Winner picks the losers av
5. 11/09/16-12/08/16 (Depends when the results are completely in)
Null


#6 @KnightTemplar v. @Rex Kwon Do
1. Percent Margin Donald Trump beats Clinton by in the US Pres. election popular vote
2. @KnightTemplar 0.1% to 2.0% @Rex Kwon Do 2.0%+
3. 11/08/16
4. Signature bet- Winner picks the loser's signature; signature chosen must be quote praising Adolf Hitler, Fuhrer of Germany OR a quote by Adolf Hitler himself
5. 11/09/16-12/08/16 (Depends when the results are completely in)
Null

#8 @waiguoren v. @cooks1
1. National Popular vote margin with Clinton/Trump will be <= 6.4% for Clinton
2. Waiguoren- For Cooks1- Against
3. 1/21/16 (Day after inauguration day)
4. Signature Bet
5. 01/21/16 to next US Presidential election day
6. If Clinton simultaneously wins the popular vote by over 6.4%, but loses on the electoral map and Trump is elected on that basis, the bet will be void, as Hillary did get over 6.4% of the popular vote, but she did not win by 6.4% of the popular vote
Winner: Waiguoren

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@LucasWithLidOff

Let's go with this:

39b7d0846f99f645bc2ff19b81b1a49c.jpg
 
#11 @Jack V Savage v. @LucasWithLidOff
1. Hillary Clinton will be indicted by 12/28/2016
2. LucasWithLidOff- For, Jack V Savage- Against
3. 12/29/16
4. Avatar Bet
5. Permanent
Winner: Jack V Savage
 
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