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The War Room Bet Thread

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Cint said:
Your Signature and avatar frightens me to the core. @Quipling
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Well, my av is spoken for - Rex gets it if trump wins - but my sig isn't. If you want to change it, here are my proposed terms:

1. Subject matter: President of the United States per the Electoral College (if it is determined in some other fashion, bet is null).
2. Positions: Quipling: Hillary will win. Cint: Trump will win
3. Date of resolution: November 9, 2016
4. For: Signature. (if you want speific limitations on what the sig can entail, we can discuss those)
5. Sig stays up until Inauguration. Delays in putting up the sig are transferred until after inauguration. (ie, putting it up november 11th means it stays up until two days after inauguration).
 
So Goonerview just wanted to call BS on polls but definitely knew he didn't want to bet on that ignorance.

@BruceLeeOnTRT , you seem like a more sure person with how biased and useless these polls are. How about I make an av bet with a man like yourself. You guess what the electoral college votes will be for Trump-Clinton the day before. I will go by what RCP's no toss up map shows the day before.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
We see which one is closer for the winner.

If you're statement is correct that polling isn't accurate tool and biased, you easily should have the advantage here. I'd like to know if you believe Trump will win. Barring the instance of you doing a price is right maneuver (going exactly +1 or -1 or RCP's number), I think I can't lose here. Maybe we can possibly agree on a line you can't cross for how much Clinton will win by with your prediction so I am assure you won't do this. What do you think Bruce?
 
@cooks1 @Lead

Sig bet. national popular vote final tally. I think Clinton's margin will be <= 6.4%. Cooks1 thinks Clinton will win by > 6.4%
 
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waiguoren said:
@cooks1 @Lead

Sig bet. national popular vote final tally. I think Clinton's victory will be <= 6.4%. Cooks1 thinks Clinton will win by > 6.4%
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That's a deal. I like putting myself out there. how long?
 
waiguoren said:
@cooks1 @Lead

Sig bet. national popular vote final tally. I think Clinton's victory will be <= 6.4%. Cooks1 thinks Clinton will win by > 6.4%
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cooks1 said:
That's a deal. I like putting myself out there. how long?
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This is an interesting bet. Polls normally show races getting a bit closer as the election comes to a close, but often the winner does slightly better then the polls predict. Add the trump factor and any damn thing can happen.

I like it boys!
 
If Trump loses the election then I will put in my signature:

"Hillary Clinton is a great president and I completely trust her judgement." - Kenny Florian
 
cooks1 said:
That's a deal. I like putting myself out there. how long?
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Just to be absolutely clear, if Trump wins I also win. In the original post I mistakenly wrote that Clinton's margin of victory would have to be 6.4% or less in order to win. Ok?
 
waiguoren said:
Just to be absolutely clear, if Trump wins I also win. In the original post I mistakenly wrote that Clinton's margin of victory would have to be 6.4% or less in order to win. Ok?
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Of course. how long.
 
waiguoren said:
Right, good question. Never done one of these before.How about 5 years?
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That's a really long time. Normally these things last a month or 2. But I'm game for a long stint if you are.

Perhaps we just go to the next Presidential election though as opposed to 5 years if you are game for a long bet. Would be kind of silly for one of us to have a sig from 2 elections ago.
 
cooks1 said:
That's a really long time. Normally these things last a month or 2. But I'm game for a long stint if you are.

Perhaps we just go to the next Presidential election though as opposed to 5 years if you are game for a long bet. Would be kind of silly for one of us to have a sig from 2 elections ago.
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To next prez election. sure.
 
waiguoren said:
To next prez election. sure.
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Sounds Good. I also would like to add a bet voiding addendum.

If Clinton simultaneously wins the popular vote by over 6.4%, but loses on the electoral map and Trump is elected on that basis, the bet will be void, as Hillary did get over 6.4% of the popular vote, but she did not win by 6.4% of the popular vote.

I realize this is highly unlikely, but mathematically it is possible. HRC is up by 20+ points on many polls in very populous states like CA and NY. If she ends up wining those states by record margins, and Trump somehow manages to eek out tiny victories in enough swing states, it could happen. Holy shit, would that be a mess.
 
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cooks1 said:
Sounds Good. I also would like to add a bet voiding addendum.

If Clinton simultaneously wins the popular vote by over 6.4%, but loses on the electoral map and Trump is elected on that basis, the bet will be void, as Hillary did get over 6.4% of the popular vote, but she did not win by 6.4% of the popular vote.

I realize this is highly unlikely, but mathematically it is possible. HRC is up by 20+ points on many polls in very populous states like CA and NY. If she ends up wining those states by record margins, and Trump somehow manages to eek out tiny victories in enough swing states, it could happen. Holy shit, would that be a mess.
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Might be out of place, but Silver was pointing out that Clinton is holding Obama's lead in blue states, ahead of Obama slightly in swing states, and making big gains relative to him in red states. That also makes some of the gains electorally irrelevant; I'm just pointing out that the reasoning behind your position is a little off.
 
I haven't been in here in awhile. I'll try to update the thread with the one or two proposals that are developing here sometime today.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Might be out of place, but Silver was pointing out that Clinton is holding Obama's lead in blue states, ahead of Obama slightly in swing states, and making big gains relative to him in red states. That also makes some of the gains electorally irrelevant; I'm just pointing out that the reasoning behind your position is a little off.
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Noted. I understand it is highly implausible.
 
@Quipling v. @Cint
1. Who wins the 2016 US Presidential Election
2. Quipling: Hillary will win. Cint: Trump will win
3. 11/09/16
4. Signature bet
5. 11/08/2016-01/20/2017 (Day after election to Inauguration day)
*In the event the election isn't determined by normal means of the electoral college, the bet is void.

I'm going to just add a note now to the OP mentioning delay of adding sig or av also freezes the timer of the punishment so you don't have to mention this everytime.


Quipling mentioned that you can specify more on what the sigs will be or you can keep it open ended as it is posted now. I need you both to quote and agree for me to make it official
 
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