The War Room Bet Thread V3

[Limbo Pete]

@RockstarChris v. @SBJJ
1. Stan Lee or Betty White dies first
2. SBJJ- Lee, Chris- White
3. Never
4. Dignity bet
5. All-time
6. If they die at the same time, @Clippy changes his name to Clipeh

ITS ON!

Now THIS is what a real bet looks like
Take some notes, @waiguoren

 

[waiguoren]

This seems to imply some kind of magical property relating to calendars. To bring back the sports analogy, there is some roster turnover every year so it's reasonable to ignore the team's performance from the previous year when predicting the rest of it. But nothing like that happens with the economy.

I see no good reason to analyze the YOY figures in this context. The bet is about a quantity with baseline (GDP on December 31, 2017 at 23:59:59). If your argument is that the system is not "memoryless" (a term from systems engineering), I agree, but then you should probably just look at Q3 and Q4 2017 figures and consider how they might be correlated with 2018 rates. Changing the baseline back to arbitrary dates in 2017 seems groundless.

 

[waiguoren]

Your mistake is looking at sequential quarterly rather than YOY growth.

That's obviously not a mistake even if you prefer YOY for some strange reason. Do you admit you were wrong to say that @SBJJ is betting on a H2 acceleration?

BTW, I do acknowledge that this is a riskier bet than I usually take just because of the inherent unpredictability of the numbers (I noted earlier that I've made that comment several times but this is my second bet on it*). What I feel confident about is not the exact numbers but that there is no rational basis for SBJJ's expectation unless one is privy to a lot more information than either of us, in fact, are.

It's riskier not only for that reason, but because GDP only needs to repeat its performance from H1 in order for you to lose. You're basically betting that Q2 was a blip.

 

[waiguoren]

Wai. We should start an over/under for Jack. How long in ANY discussion will it take before Jack is reduced to calling the other party he is conversing with tribal, partisan or insult their intelligence

3.5 posts sound right?

He goes through phases. In recent times, the under would be a great play even for his interactions with me. In the past the over would have hit more. You seem to rile him up more though.

 

[Jack V Savage]

That's obviously not a mistake even if you prefer YOY for some strange reason. Do you admit you were wrong to say that @SBJJ is betting on a H2 acceleration?

I wasn't wrong, though. Annualized YOY growth so far is below the target.

It's riskier not only for that reason, but because GDP only needs to repeat its performance from H1 in order for you to lose. You're basically betting that Q2 was a blip.

What do you think the long-term expected trajectory is?

He goes through phases. In recent times, the under would be a great play even for his interactions with me. In the past the over would have hit more. You seem to rile him up more though.

Do you acknowledge that SBJJ is of subnormal intellect, is very ignorant on this issue, and generally behaves in a vulgar, undignified manner here? I think "you rile him up" is your way of dancing around the obvious issues with his posting.

 

[waiguoren]

What are you implying here? You think the news is trying to spin GDP numbers "under Trump" in a "negative view"?

@waiguoren, what do you think of this guy's theory here?

As I understand it, his theory is that you have blindspot on the GDP issue due to excessive consumption of anti-Trump sources. I won't go that far, but I will admit that I have had similar speculations about your reasons for making certain posts. For example, I recall that you accused Alan Dershowitz of auditioning for a job on the Trump legal team despite Dershowitz being nearly 80 years old and despite his repeated insistence that he has zero desire to work for Trump. On that point, I speculate that you were echoing Jonathan Chait, a writer whose work I have found to be of low quality but who you seem to admire.

 

[waiguoren]

I wasn't wrong, though. Annualized YOY growth so far is below the target.

And again, that's nearly irrelevant. YOY growth uses 2017 baselines at this time. Your bet has baseline (GDP on December 31, 2017 at 23:59:59).

What do you think the long-term expected trajectory is?

Specify your terms. In the long-run, we are all dead.

Do you acknowledge that SBJJ is of subnormal intellect, is very ignorant on this issue, and generally behaves in a vulgar, undignified manner here? I think "you rile him up" is your way of dancing around the obvious issues with his posting.

I think he's a pretty bright guy. Would that mean he's not of "subnormal intellect"?

As to his level of ignorance on this issue, I'd have to delve into it with him further to really know. I do slightly favor him in his bet with you. If he wins, would that be evidence that he's not ignorant on this issue?

As for his behavior, would you say he's more vulgar and undignified than I am? How about compared to @HomerThompson? I am familiar with him from the betting subforum. He and I have had multiple interactions over the past few years. I have never found him to be vulgar or undignified, but if you'd like to link me to some posts of his that demonstrate this I would be happy to have a look.

 

[Jack V Savage]

As I understand it, his theory is that you have blindspot on the GDP issue due to excessive consumption of anti-Trump sources.

You're again minimizing the idiocy and nuttiness of his claim. He truly believes that the MSM is deliberately trying to spin reporting on the economy because they stupidly believe that the president is mainly responsible for economic performance, that they are anti-Trump, and that they routinely spin coverage to hurt politicians they dislike. And what's more, you know that.

 

[waiguoren]

You're again minimizing the idiocy and nuttiness of his claim. He truly believes that the MSM is deliberately trying to spin reporting on the economy because they stupidly believe that the president is mainly responsible for economic performance, that they are anti-Trump, and that they routinely spin coverage to hurt politicians they dislike. And what's more, you know that.

I think it's a fair guess that he won't agree with your description of his view.

 

[SBJJ]

I wasn't wrong, though. Annualized YOY growth so far is below the target.



What do you think the long-term expected trajectory is?



Do you acknowledge that SBJJ is of subnormal intellect, is very ignorant on this issue, and generally behaves in a vulgar, undignified manner here? I think "you rile him up" is your way of dancing around the obvious issues with his posting.

Yikes. I guess I do rile him up.

Sucks that such a low level Neanderthal could rile up such a scholarly gentlemen.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Specify your terms. In the long-run, we are all dead.

Granted that it's unpredictable in any individual quarter, what do you think the true level is that it's bouncing around?

I think he's a pretty bright guy. Would that mean he's not of "subnormal intellect"?

Yes, that would mean that. I do not believe that you're unable to see what I'm talking about. This is a guy who wanted to bet me about Obama-administration officials using surnames and who thinks that all "unbiased economists" are projecting Q3 growth of whatever.

As to his level of ignorance on this issue, I'd have to delve into it with him further to really know. I do slightly favor him in his bet with you. If he wins, would that be evidence that he's not ignorant on this issue?

Not necessarily. But you can read through his postings in this very thread. Again, my belief is that it is as obvious to you as it is to me that he's clueless here and generally of below-average intellect, but you don't want to acknowledge it because you perceive him as being in your tribe.

As for his behavior, would you say he's more vulgar and undignified than I am?

As a matter of fact, yes. Which is why I think you know what I'm talking about. He routinely makes atrocious grammatical errors, for example. Not like typos, but constructions that indicate a very poor ability to communicate.

How about compared to @HomerThompson? I am familiar with him from the betting subforum. He and I have had multiple interactions over the past few years. I have never found him to be vulgar or undignified, but if you'd like to link me to some posts of his that demonstrate this I would be happy to have a look.

Read through this very thread. And the fact that you're pretending not to see a huge difference between him and Homer is disappointing (shouldn't be by this point, but it is).

 

[SBJJ]

You're again minimizing the idiocy and nuttiness of his claim. He truly believes that the MSM is deliberately trying to spin reporting on the economy because they stupidly believe that the president is mainly responsible for economic performance, that they are anti-Trump, and that they routinely spin coverage to hurt politicians they dislike. And what's more, you know that.

No. It’s not just what you label the “MSM”. Conservative outlets spin it also. Just like how FOX, Rush & Co would routinely downplay the Obama economic numbers.

New bet. Over/Under on how many times Jack can throw out non vulgar very dignified insults in this thread

 

[SBJJ]

Granted that it's unpredictable in any individual quarter, what do you think the true level is that it's bouncing around?



Yes, that would mean that. I do not believe that you're unable to see what I'm talking about. This is a guy who wanted to bet me about Obama-administration officials using surnames and who thinks that all "unbiased economists" are projecting Q3 growth of whatever.



Not necessarily. But you can read through his postings in this very thread. Again, my belief is that it is as obvious to you as it is to me that he's clueless here and generally of below-average intellect, but you don't want to acknowledge it because you perceive him as being in your tribe.



As a matter of fact, yes. Which is why I think you know what I'm talking about. He routinely makes atrocious grammatical errors, for example. Not like typos, but constructions that indicate a very poor ability to communicate.



Read through this very thread. And the fact that you're pretending not to see a huge difference between him and Homer is disappointing (shouldn't be by this point, but it is).

Which of the 2 of us is routinely throwing around insults?

Did I harm you in some way out there in the real world? If I did, I genuinely apologize

And sorry Jack, I am always multi tasking while posting on Sherdog. I am never paying complete attention while posting. Sherdog has about 50% of my attention while posting on my teeny tiny phone

 

[Jack V Savage]

No. It’s not just what you label the “MSM”. Conservative outlets spin it also. Just like how FOX, Rush & Co would routinely downplay the Obama economic numbers.

New bet. Over/Under on how many times Jack can throw out non vulgar very dignified insults in this thread

@waiguoren, note that this is not a denial. He's just adding that non-mainstream outlets do what he thinks the MSM does.

 

[SBJJ]

@waiguoren, note that this is not a denial. He's just adding that non-mainstream outlets do what he thinks the MSM does.

Oh. It’s true. 99% of outlets have a bias. It is what it is

 

[Jack V Savage]

Which of the 2 of us is routinely throwing around insults?

Did I harm you in some way out there in the real world? If I did, I genuinely apologize

What you did to me, more than anything, was that argument about surnames. Not only did you not know the meaning of a common word, but you continued to argue (aggressively) about the matter long after the point that a normal person would have realized he was being made fun of and slunk off to a dictionary. That's only the worst example of behavior that doesn't draw any special ire from me (militantly stupid partisans are a dime a dozen here), but does lead me to think that you are particularly lacking in basic necessities for being an above-replacement-level poster.

 

[waiguoren]

Granted that it's unpredictable in any individual quarter, what do you think the true level is that it's bouncing around?

I'm not convinced that such a "true level" exists. Why do you think it does?

I do not believe that you're unable to see what I'm talking about. This is a guy who wanted to bet me about Obama-administration officials using surnames

@SBJJ is this a fair characterization of what happened?

thinks that all "unbiased economists" are projecting Q3 growth of whatever.

I'll disagree with him on that. I don't think it makes him a person of "subnormal intellect".

my belief is that it is as obvious to you as it is to me that he's clueless here and generally of below-average intellect, but you don't want to acknowledge it because you perceive him as being in your tribe.

I don't accept that characterization.

He routinely makes atrocious grammatical errors, for example. Not like typos, but constructions that indicate a very poor ability to communicate.

Not that I accept your premise, but would that make him "vulgar" or "undignified"?

Read through this very thread. And the fact that you're pretending not to see a huge difference between him and Homer is disappointing (shouldn't be by this point, but it is).

If we just look at quality of bets, it's pretty obvious that @SBJJ is superior. He's got a near-evens proposition locked in with you, the so-called betting champion.

By contrast, @HomerThompson has overexposed himself to the event that Trump is still in office on January 1, 2020. He will be very lucky if that bet hits for him. You even criticized him for that bet, but not without noting "Homer, you know I love you, but..."

For a while I thought HomerThompson was a bot. I only saw him post hotdog gifs. He purports to be very concerned with racism and has criticized others for language that can be twisted to be prejudicial of black people but he has no problem cracking jokes about Asian people eating dogs.

I do see a huge difference between SBJJ and HomerThompson---the former is a higher-quality poster than the latter.

(Homer my man, don't take it personally. I believe you can improve.)

 

[SBJJ]

What you did to me, more than anything, was that argument about surnames. Not only did you not know the meaning of a common word, but you continued to argue (aggressively) about the matter long after the point that a normal person would have realized he was being made fun of and slunk off to a dictionary. That's only the worst example of behavior that doesn't draw any special ire from me (militantly stupid partisans are a dime a dozen here), but does lead me to think that you are particularly lacking in basic necessities for being an above-replacement-level poster.

Lol. That surname blip was a mistake. It should have stated did not use. I did not run or slink off. I left the Internet. It happens

That really is what has you worked up? Is that why you took this bad bet? Because you believed me a moron and can’t understand how posts can be screwed up when trying to communicate with a group of people while also trying to take care of real life issues

I mean, back then if I was communicating with you it usually meant I also had to contend with the whole gang

I’m not heartbroken over the fact you believe I’m a simpleton. I’m thinking I’m in good company

 

[waiguoren]

does lead me to think that you are particularly lacking in basic necessities for being an above-replacement-level poster.

What's this all about?

 

[SBJJ]

I'm not convinced that such a "true level" exists. Why do you think it does?


@SBJJ is this a fair characterization of what happened?



I'll disagree with him on that. I don't think it makes him a person of "subnormal intellect".


I don't accept that characterization.



Not that I accept your premise, but would that make him "vulgar" or "undignified"?



If we just look at quality of bets, it's pretty obvious that @SBJJ is superior. He's got a near-evens proposition locked in with you, the so-called betting champion.

By contrast, @HomerThompson has overexposed himself to the event that Trump is still in office on January 1, 2020. He will be very lucky if that bet hits for him. You even criticized him for that bet, but not without noting "Homer, you know I love you, but..."

For a while I thought HomerThompson was a bot. I only saw him post hotdog gifs. He purports to be very concerned with racism and has criticized others for language that can be twisted to be prejudicial of black people but he has no problem cracking jokes about Asian people eating dogs.

I do see a huge difference between SBJJ and HomerThompson---the former is a higher-quality poster than the latter.

(Homer my man, don't take it personally. I believe you can improve.)

I also have a won bet against Polish. I guess it wasn’t confirmed in here

I think I rub Jack the wrong way because he thinks I believe I am superior to him. And that cuts deep because he obviously views himself a great intellectual(he very well could be). What he doesn’t grasp is that I don’t look at him as inferior or superior to me. He might very well smash me in the IQ area. But then I might be more successful or my net worth might dwarf his. I might just be a happier chap in general. Or then again I might not

My only problem with Jack is not that we disagree politically on some issues. It’s that he resorts to calling others Partisan, Biased or idiotic simply over a difference over a political issue