The War Room Bet Thread V3

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waiguoren said:
Let's start with this. Why would YOY be appropriate?
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The bet is YOY, for one thing. For another, even post-adjustment, it appears that there is some seasonality in the numbers. And even if that were not so, the adjustments are going to be an approximation. I think both measures are worth looking at, but YOY is a better measure of where the bet stands and is heading.

BTW, I do acknowledge that this is a riskier bet than I usually take just because of the inherent unpredictability of the numbers (I noted earlier that I've made that comment several times but this is my second bet on it*). What I feel confident about is not the exact numbers but that there is no rational basis for SBJJ's expectation unless one is privy to a lot more information than either of us, in fact, are.

* I previously bet with someone who claimed that we'd start to see small drops in GDP in late 2015 before it fell off a cliff in 2016 that 2015 YOY growth would be positive. I said it was unpredictable but that it was a safe bet that it wouldn't fall so much that it would be in negative territory. I ended up releasing him, though, because he claimed that he thought he was just betting that the rate of growth would fall, and I saw no point in winning on a technicality, though I didn't think his interpretation made any sense. After thanking me for that, he later insisted that he did win (that his bizarre interpretation was correct) and demanded that I pay up. Then when people he agreed with chimed in to say that he was wrong, he apologized and again offered to pay, but I declined for the same reason I initially released him. The whole sorry episode led to the creation of this thread.
 
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Jack V Savage said:
The bet is YOY, for one thing.
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It's YOY only for January 2018 to January 2019, not for April 2017 to April 2018 or July 2017 to July 2018. That type of figure would only seem to mislead you. If you want to study the year of 2018, you should probably look at the 2018 numbers, not the 2017 numbers.

Jack V Savage said:
even post-adjustment, it appears that there is some seasonality in the numbers.
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I've gone back to 2013 to examine this and I see no seasonal trend post-adjustment.

Jack V Savage said:
even if that were not so, the adjustments are going to be an approximation
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Yes, but that does not imply bias in the adjustments.

In summary, I don't understand why in the world you would say that "YOY is a better measure of where the bet stands and is heading."
 
waiguoren said:
It's YOY only for January 2018 to January 2019, not for April 2017 to April 2018 or July 2017 to July 2018. That type of figure would only seem to mislead you. If you want to study the year of 2018, you should probably look at the 2018 numbers, not the 2017 numbers.
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This seems to imply some kind of magical property relating to calendars. To bring back the sports analogy, there is some roster turnover every year so it's reasonable to ignore the team's performance from the previous year when predicting the rest of it. But nothing like that happens with the economy.
 
Jack. Can you find any unbiased source that believes Q3 will be lower than 4%? I think you are dreaming at this point and your posts are starting to show it

I’d be willing to up this bet. We could do 2 years, 3 years, 10 years.

I predict we Will already know I won the bet after Q3 numbers come in

Your extreme bias is clouding your mind.
 
SBJJ said:
Jack. Can you find any unbiased source that believes Q3 will be lower than 4%?
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I'm not aware of any credible source that expresses any belief about Q3 growth. I believe that by definition, anyone who claims any belief about a single quarter's GDP growth is a quack. The Atlanta Fed has a tracker, but it's unreliable until late in the quarter. However, *you* implied that you've been reading the work of many "unbiased economists" who are unanimous in their projection that you will win the bet. I do not think you'll be able to cite a single example to support that implication.

SBJJ said:
I think you are dreaming at this point and your posts are starting to show it

I’d be willing to up this bet. We could do 2 years, 3 years, 10 years.

I predict we Will already know I won the bet after Q3 numbers come in

Your extreme bias is clouding your mind.
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I think that you are of subnormal intellect in general and have no idea what you're talking about on this issue (and are guided 100% by partisanship). With regard to your silly changing of the terms, I think the issue is simply that you aren't informed enough to be aware of the risks. I expect to win the bet, but I'm not going to be upping stakes to keep up with a madman. You're like a kid who has been on a long winning streak in a game of war and is now offering to bet his house that it will continue.
 
You should have no problem upping the ante of someone with such subnormal intellect. Right?

How bout we also bet on Q3. A genius like yourself should be able to back up your mouth. Or are you just an empty suit trying to convince the masses on a karate forum you are something special.

PS Jack. I wager for a living. It’s well known in a sub forum. Hell, I’ve posted bets consistently. I’m FAR from perfect but I’m legit.
 
SBJJ said:
You should have no problem upping the ante of someone with such subnormal intellect. Right?

How bout we also bet on Q3. A genius like yourself should be able to back up your mouth. Or are you just an empty suit trying to convince the masses on a karate forum you are something special.
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You being dumb and completely uninformed on the issue doesn't change my expectations about GDP growth for 2018. I asked you what "unbiased economists" you were reading. Did you forget that?

Also, what is your reasoning on the bet if it is not what I described?
 
Wai. We should start an over/under for Jack. How long in ANY discussion will it take before Jack is reduced to calling the other party he is conversing with tribal, partisan or insult their intelligence

3.5 posts sound right?
 
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Also Jack. Would you say the media in general would spin GDP numbers under Trump in a positive or negative view? You are buying the spin from your preferred news sources.

Prediction Q3 will see a nice bounce from the insane draw down on inventories last quarter
 
SBJJ said:
Also Jack. Would you say the media in general would spin GDP numbers under Trump in a positive or negative view? You are buying the spin from your preferred news sources.
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What are you implying here? You think the news is trying to spin GDP numbers "under Trump" in a "negative view"?

@waiguoren, what do you think of this guy's theory here?
 
I bet betty white will die before the year ends, Betty White likes this post
 
Lead said:
The Rules:
-Since we have this thread now, keep bet discussions in here rather than other threads. It will prevent derailing the discussions there. If you organically come up with an idea in another thread, just move the conversation over to here with whomever it is with.

-I will try to manage the OP with the current bets going on. You both must come to an agreement on:
1. The exact statement the bet is premised upon
2. Stance each poster is taking in regards to the statement
3. The date the bet will be decided
4. The reward/punishment for the winner/loser
5. The duration of the reward/punishment before I will post it.
6 (OPTIONAL) A situation which makes the bet void that isn't clear with the content in 1 & 2. This needs to be very clear if included.
Once, you both are in agreement, tag me so I can add it.

-Punishments are limited. No account/e-suicide bets as silencing part of the community isn't very WR like. This is suppose to be something fun but not fatal for our regulars here. Signature and av bets are fair game. The av/sig that will be given can be decided before or after the bet.

-No cash bets. It can't be enforced and isn't something the site can or wants to host.

-If there is a dispute over who won/lost the bet, you can choose a moderator to decide the result. The mod options will be Madmick, Zankou, and myself. If you both want a different moderator, each poster can decide a moderator they don't want to decide and the remaining of the three will make the call (yes, this sounds very detailed and overly complex but I'm sure this likely is going to occur and want to make it fair as possible. Eliminating one ensures both posters at least get their 2nd best choice.)

-Same rules apply in this thread as any other thread in the War Room. No flaming other posters, etc.

-Both posters involved in the bet must have either an account that's been around over 1 year or over 1000 posts. Exceptions can be given. If the volume of bets becomes frequent, I will limit the amount of pending bets per user. I don't expect this to happen.

-Do not allude/mention bets in this thread that don't adhere to the rules above. For example, mentioning an account ban bet will just get the post deleted.

-If a punishment doesn't begin at the start date in #5, the amount of time will remain paused until it begins. For example, if someone was suppose to change their Av on 1/1/16 for a one month avatar bet and they don't begin until 1/3/16, the loser must keep the av until 2/2/16.

-Certain rules above can be suspended if approved at the time the bet is made. These rules would be the two bets at a time, post/join date requirement, and anything else that was made just to handle the flow of traffic with bets.

If I'm missing something, I'll be sure to clarify it in the thread before editing the OP but I think this covers most of it. Have fun and stuff.

Previous Threads
The War Room Bet Thread
The War Room Bet Thread v2 (10 bets)
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i bet 2 hammsters and a dog that Trump wont get impeached. He is a cute dog
 
Jack V Savage said:
I don't want to wait that long either. What if we swapped Trump winning in 2020 for 1,2, and 6? Just a suggestion. I'm fine with you broadening 7, but what do you mean by her past position on illegal immigration? Obviously opposition to illegal immigration is still a universally held view in American politics.

For 3, I read you as saying that the finding would be a specific concession, which I think is good from your perspective (so it requires something like, "in the sixth, my ass goes down," rather than a more general, "Are you my n___?" "It certainly appears so.").
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tbh jack is actually funny in real life
 
Jack V Savage said:
What are you implying here? You think the news is trying to spin GDP numbers "under Trump" in a "negative view"?

@waiguoren, what do you think of this guy's theory here?
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Come on dude. FOX poo pood Obamas numbers and is hailing Trump as savior of the economy. Outlets have bias

I don’t look at it that way. I think Obama handed Trump an economy ready for lift off and I think Trump has tweaked it just enough to unleash it further.

I was talking of stronger growth a year ago and of course was lambasted.
 
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