The War Room Bet Thread V3

[Lead]

I don't understand.

Is he saying you're overextended?

I think so, but the wording confused me.

Yes, overextended on the sig and av front. If you truly wanted to do another, you would have to make a decent argument it wouldn't overlap with the other bets already in place which would probably be some type of window before 2020.

Name bets are at two years so you still have some room there I suppose. I'm starting to wonder if I should start disclosing before a bet the other bets that could delay the punishment. It does seem like people know you have a lot of these pending so it may not matter to them.

And yes, horrible wording/ sentences are a flaw of mine.

 

[cooks1]

Your record is 0-2.

You've never even won a bet.

On the other hand, I am 4-0. Undefeated. World champion. GOAT.

I have taken on all comers. I hold dominant wins over high-level competition such as
@m52nickerson and @SidJustice and @cooks1. I'm on the verge of more victories.

The king has spoken. Perhaps you should learn to zip it up and take notes.

Waigu does not just win the bet. He takes your betting soul. He makes you question reality as you know it.

It's been nearly 2 years now, and I am only just now starting to wager again. Simple stuff. Coin tosses. Top 5 NCAA football teams vs tier 3 schools with no spread. It's been a process.

 

[cooks1]

ok

You really think Avenatti will be the Democratic nominee?????????????? Holy shit that is ballsy. Were it coming from anyone else, I would say it was bat-shit crazy.

I am not going to bet you, for the obvious reasons. But I promise you this. If Avenatti is the Democratic nominee, I will be putting all my recreational activities aside to figure out who you are IRL. With my main theories being alien or complex computer algorithm.

 

[waiguoren]

You really think Avenatti will be the Democratic nominee?????????????? Holy shit that is ballsy. Were it coming from anyone else, I would say it was bat-shit crazy.

I am not going to bet you, for the obvious reasons. But I promise you this. If Avenatti is the Democratic nominee, I will be putting all my recreational activities aside to figure out who you are IRL. With my main theories being alien or complex computer algorithm.

No sir. My claim is simple: if Avenatti and Booker both run, Avenatti is more likely to be the Democratic nominee than Cory Booker is. Booker's chance is zero. Avenatti will surprise a lot of people. I cannot see the future perfectly, but I can see multiple paths to the Democratic nomination for Avenatti and none for Booker.

 

[cooks1]

No sir. My claim is simple: if Avenatti and Booker both run, Avenatti is more likely to be the Democratic nominee than Cory Booker is. Booker's chance is zero. Avenatti will surprise a lot of people. I cannot see the future perfectly, but I can see multiple paths to the Democratic nomination for Avenatti and none for Booker.

Ah- That makes a little more sense. I kind of see Cory making a 'light run' this year. A not completely committed run to increase his profile for future elections. He is only 49.

 

[Lavalamp]

Booker's chance is zero.

Avenatti will surprise a lot of people. I cannot see the future perfectly, but I can see multiple paths to the Democratic nomination for Avenatti and none for Booker.

If Booker pulled a Trump and became a Republican, would you view him the same?

 

[Jack V Savage]

1. Democrats will hold a majority of seats in the House of Representatives in the first House session of 2019.
2. @waiguoren: against, @Jack V Savage: for
3. November 7th, 2018
4. Name bet
5. 1 year

Jack, I'm not offering this just yet. Want to make sure you're on board with the language.

We're on board with the language of the bet. I don't like the stakes, though.

 

[waiguoren]

If Booker pulled a Trump and became a Republican, would you view him the same?

Booker will not run as a Republican. He is despised by most of the Republican base and has announced multiple policy proposals that most Republicans oppose. His professional+donor network is attached to the Democratic Party.

Booker will fail in the 2020 presidential contest as a Democrat.

 

[waiguoren]

Ah- That makes a little more sense. I kind of see Cory making a 'light run' this year. A not completely committed run to increase his profile for future elections. He is only 49.

I think he will make a serious run and get wiped out.

Avenatti is a wildcard. He is a steep underdog by my estimation, but his chances are non-trivial.

 

[waiguoren]

We're on board with the language of the bet. I don't like the stakes, though.

Would you prefer five years Name+AV bet?

 

[waiguoren]

@Jack V Savage

To make things extra clear, the statement contained in the following tweet is patently false, according to my calculations. In other words, I strongly disagree with many of the "likely D" and "lean D" designations.

 

[waiguoren]

@Jack V Savage

Also, might you be interested in betting on any of the specific House/Senate races? There are many for which I'll probably be happy to take the opposite side from Silver.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Would you prefer five years Name+AV bet?

Name is not on the table. Six-month sig.

@Jack V Savage

To make things extra clear, the statement contained in the following tweet is patently false, according to my calculations. In other words, I strongly disagree with many of the "likely D" and "lean D" designations.

OK. The implication is a little questionable, but I don't have any basis for questioning the IDs individually, and I have less confidence in your methods than I do in theirs (not knowing anything about your process, I'm basing that more on a general assessment of your posting--sincerely no offense intended).

 

[Jack V Savage]

@Jack V Savage

Also, might you be interested in betting on any of the specific House/Senate races? There are many for which I'll probably be happy to take the opposite side from Silver.

I generally want to see my own odds as being 3-1 or better before taking a bet here (took slightly less than that with my most recent one). I'll outsource that to Silver, I guess. Meaning, if there are any races where he assigns odds of the winner being 75%-plus and you disagree with the pick, I'll be open to betting.

 

[waiguoren]

I generally want to see my own odds as being 3-1 or better before taking a bet here (took slightly less than that with my most recent one). I'll outsource that to Silver, I guess. Meaning, if there are any races where he assigns odds of the winner being 75%-plus and you disagree with the pick, I'll be open to betting.

Compromise? How about if Silver has a race as 62+% in the D column?

 

[waiguoren]

I generally want to see my own odds as being 3-1 or better before taking a bet here (took slightly less than that with my most recent one). I'll outsource that to Silver, I guess. Meaning, if there are any races where he assigns odds of the winner being 75%-plus and you disagree with the pick, I'll be open to betting.

Make that 73% and we've got a bet.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Make that 73% and we've got a bet.

One-month sig, then. What's the race?

 

[waiguoren]

One-month sig, then. What's the race?

In that case, give me 65%-35%. The race is Malinowski-Lance.

 

[Jack V Savage]

In that case, give me 65%-35%. The race is Malinowski-Lance.

So I take Malinowski and one-month sig, but let me add another condition: After the race, you explain the basis for picking Lance.

 

[waiguoren]

So I take Malinowski and one-month sig, but let me add another condition: After the race, you explain the basis for picking Lance.

Did you learn that trick from the Chinese government? Good way to take IP. I can divulge a lot, but not all.