The War Room Bet Thread V3

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Ripskater said:
Well if I do get banned, I'll just come back with another account sometime.
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This is the bet thread Rip. I think you meant the WR Lounge. But hey, if you got a decent idea for an av or sig bet, I'm sure there are plenty of takers
 
Lead said:
This is the bet thread Rip. I think you meant the WR Lounge. But hey, if you got a decent idea for an av or sig bet, I'm sure there are plenty of takers
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I did, sorry
 
Lead said:
This is the bet thread Rip. I think you meant the WR Lounge. But hey, if you got a decent idea for an av or sig bet, I'm sure there are plenty of takers
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And Lol, I'm sure there are!
 
@waiguoren, since you were defending a post that was just cobbled together right-wing talking points intending to argue for the case that the GOP will never lose a national popular presidential vote outside of California, do you want to bet on it? I'll say that they lose one of the next two. No tricks, no weapons, skill against skill alone.
 
Jack V Savage said:
@waiguoren, since you were defending a post that was just cobbled together right-wing talking points intending to argue for the case that the GOP will never lose a national popular presidential vote outside of California, do you want to bet on it? I'll say that they lose one of the next two. No tricks, no weapons, skill against skill alone.
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That bet won't settle for another 6.2 years. Also, it's close to an even odds proposition for me. I never take such risky bets. I will take that bet for 2020 if you're offering it.
 
1. President Donald Trump's RealClearPolitics.com average job approval rating will reach 50.0% at some point in his presidency.
2. @Jack V Savage - against, @waiguoren- for
3. The last day of Trump's presidency
4. Name bet
5. 1 year

@Lead, I agree to this.
 
waiguoren said:
That bet won't settle for another 6.2 years. Also, it's close to an even odds proposition for me. I never take such risky bets. I will take that bet for 2020 if you're offering it.
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It could settle by 2020. Probably would, but I don't like those odds as much (I see that one as close to even). I think I'd be a pretty strong favorite for at least one. But it's interesting that you're liking a post arguing that Democrats will never win the popular presidential vote outside of CA again (and laughably basing it on ... them losing downballot seats while they were in the WH) and now you're saying that it's close to even that they'll win it in one of the next *two* (!) elections. That's the kind of bullshit exploding that the bet thread is designed for, IMO.

waiguoren said:
1. President Donald Trump's RealClearPolitics.com average job approval rating will reach 50.0% at some point in his presidency.
2. @Jack V Savage - against, @waiguoren- for
3. The last day of Trump's presidency
4. Name bet
5. 1 year

@Lead, I agree to this.
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I'm pretty confident about this (note that volatility appears to be declining and the current level is well below that mark), but my fears would be A) a health scare or assassination attempt or B) a new war would temporarily provide him with a bump. If we have an exception for those events, I'll take the bet.
 
Jack V Savage said:
I'm pretty confident about this (note that volatility appears to be declining and the current level is well below that mark), but my fears would be A) a health scare or assassination attempt or B) a new war would temporarily provide him with a bump. If we have an exception for those events, I'll take the bet.
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I won't compromise on those points.
 
waiguoren said:
I won't compromise on those points.
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What do you think the chances are that he gets to 50% organically? I wouldn't know how to assess it, really, but the numbers aren't moving, and he seems to be at his ceiling given the state of the economy. I think it's very, very unlikely that he'll get to 50% without something like that. I might be willing to compromise on the 50% if you make those exceptions.
 
Jack V Savage said:
What do you think the chances are that he gets to 50% organically? I wouldn't know how to assess it, really, but the numbers aren't moving, and he seems to be at his ceiling given the state of the economy. I think it's very, very unlikely that he'll get to 50% without something like that. I might be willing to compromise on the 50% if you make those exceptions.
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He got a bump when he bombed Syria over Russian objections. Would that be "inorganic"?

There is too much room for you to weasel out of this by adding such stipulations. He's never been close to 50.0%. I've already been generous with you.
 
waiguoren said:
He got a bump when he bombed Syria over Russian objections. Would that be "inorganic"?

There is too much room for you to weasel out of this by adding such stipulations. He's never been close to 50.0%. I've already been generous with you.
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What do you think the chances are that he gets to 50% organically? Seems very unlikely to me.

How about this: exception for a health scare or assassination attempt and for America being attacked (embassy, consulate, American soil) by agents connected to a state?

Or, failing that, I'll bet that he goes below 40% before he rises above 50% with no conditions attached. That's leaving more to chance but in a way I'm comfortable with.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Or, failing that, I'll bet that he goes below 40% before he rises above 50% with no conditions attached. That's leaving more to chance but in a way I'm comfortable with.
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No.

Jack V Savage said:
What do you think the chances are that he gets to 50% organically? Seems very unlikely to me.
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You didn't answer me. Was Obama's post-Libya bump "organic" or not? You do realize you haven't defined that term properly, right?

Jack V Savage said:
How about this: exception for a health scare or assassination attempt and for America being attacked (embassy, consulate, American soil) by agents connected to a state?
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That's vague as hell. Would al Qaeda bombing the Kenya embassy qualify, since bin Laden was connected to the Saudi government?

A health scare? What if he gets a virus and has to cancel a meeting with a foreign leader? Knowing the current sensationalist media and knowing you, you would use something like that to void the bet.
 
waiguoren said:
A health scare? What if he gets a virus and has to cancel a meeting with a foreign leader? Knowing the current sensationalist media and knowing you, you would use something like that to void the bet.
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I don't think it's vague, and the whole point here is to avoid angle-shooting and just get language that represents the actual disagreement. Weird that you'd accuse me of trying to weasel when that's what you're known for (you sometimes even refuse to explain your reasoning, while I try to craft bets that settle a point of expressed disagreement). You know what I'm talking about. If he gets diagnosed with dementia or has a heart attack, people will rally behind him. I agree with that. I'm saying that the path he's on isn't leading to 50% approval.
 
Jack V Savage said:
I don't think it's vague, and the whole point here is to avoid angle-shooting and just get language that represents the actual disagreement. Weird that you'd accuse me of trying to weasel when that's what you're known for (you sometimes even refuse to explain your reasoning, while I try to craft bets that settle a point of expressed disagreement). You know what I'm talking about. If he gets diagnosed with dementia or has a heart attack, people will rally behind him. I agree with that. I'm saying that the path he's on isn't leading to 50% approval.
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Obviously I disagree with most of what you wrote here, and I wonder why you would even bother writing it given that you must know you're not going to convince me of it. I wonder if you get some kind of pleasure out of attempting to insult people on the internet.

As for the bet, if you want to specify dementia and heart attack diagnosis as the only valid nullifying factors for the health part, and eliminate the foreign conflict part, then I will take the bet.
 
waiguoren said:
Obviously I disagree with most of what you wrote here, and I wonder why you would even bother writing it given that you must know you're not going to convince me of it. I wonder if you get some kind of pleasure out of attempting to insult people on the internet.
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It's weird that you gratuitously insult me, and I point out that your insult is inaccurate and that it actually applies to you, and this is your response.

waiguoren said:
As for the bet, if you want to specify dementia and heart attack diagnosis as the only valid nullifying factors for the health part, and eliminate the foreign conflict part, then I will take the bet.
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Do you understand the spirit of the exceptions?
 
Jack V Savage said:
It's weird that you gratuitously insult me, and I point out that your insult is inaccurate and that it actually applies to you, and this is your response.



Do you understand the spirit of the exceptions?
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i bet you dont fight him in real life....
 
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