The US stock market over the next few months? Anyone concerned?

[jeffk]

Anyone concerned about the US stock market over the next few months?

We got the US elections in November. That means uncertainty.

We got a potential trade war with China. We are in negotiations with the EU where tariffs won't be in place during negotiations but who knows where that will go.

Who knows what is going to happen with Iran. They basically said they don't want to talk and fuck off to Trump. Trump already talked shit and now what is he going to do if Iran does something.

 

[MadSquabbles500]

The Stock market has gone through many global turmoils, and is larger than it has ever been. It will likely continue to grow. It went through the cold war, and all the proxy wars, and is bigger now than then. It went through the current ME wars, the GFC, Bernie Madoff level Ponzi schemes, and it still going strong. Unless you plan on cashing out within next few months, not much to fret over.

 

[jeffk]

Some info

The US economy is the second longest period of expansion on record and less than one year shy of the record.

June marked the 93rd month of job growth in a row. The longest on record.

It looks like the Fed policy is going to be to gradually increase the federal funds rate. They meet again in late September. It is expected they will raise the rate from 2.0 to 2.25 percent.

The Fed is expected to remove treasuries from the Fed Reserve balance sheet and put them out to the open market. This will likely increase long term interest rates.

And the gov't is doing a ton of deficit spending so lots of bonds.

I wouldn't hold any long term bonds.

 

[TribalDrumz]

There's a war room somewhere around here.

 

[jeffk]

I am seeing estimates earning for 2018 to be about $170.

Assuming no big trade war and things go as planned with low taxes and low inflation, a 17 or 18 multiple is about fair value so next year the market should be at about 2890 to 3060 based on fair value amounts. Of course, estimated earnings can change and the market doesn't have to be valued in the fair value range.

 

[jeffk]

I am too nervous right now. I took money out of the market yesterday. I may miss out on some good returns over the next few months.

Yes, the world gdp is around 80 trillion and the current tariffs are minor in comparison but they have me nervous since the US economy has been expanding for so long I am nervous we are due for a downturn.

I am curious to see what the job numbers will be this Friday and next month.

I am keeping an eye out for an inverted yield curve as the Fed keeps raising rates.

 

[Philo-Publius]

Anyone concerned about the US stock market over the next few months?

We got the US elections in November. That means uncertainty.

We got a potential trade war with China. We are in negotiations with the EU where tariffs won't be in place during negotiations but who knows where that will go.

Who knows what is going to happen with Iran. They basically said they don't want to talk and fuck off to Trump. Trump already talked shit and now what is he going to do if Iran does something.

Not at all. The stock market goes up and it goes down, but the economy in general right now is strong. GDP continues to go up.

 

[Omegaboy13]

We’re due for a recession. It’s fairly cyclical. Usually it’s every 8 years or so, we’re going on 7ish just depending on where you start counting. The tech bubble will burst eventually, mainly social media and entertainment.

Am I worried? No, not really. I’ll shelter my money in a fixed fund or average down. Bear markets are the time to buy.

 

[jeffk]

Not at all. The stock market goes up and it goes down, but the economy in general right now is strong. GDP continues to go up.


The economy has been going in the right direction for the 2nd longest time ever. It has been slow steady growth.

We have the tax cut to keep it going but I don't know how long that will continue to drive it. Probably thru next quarter at least. But there are other things that concern me that could throw things for a loop in the short run.

 

[Bobby Boulders]

@N13

 

[Pride23]

Not concerned but preparing. Holding onto a few companies that I like over the next 10 years, reducing holdings and increasing cash position as well as taking out some long term short options.

 

[jeffk]

We’re due for a recession. It’s fairly cyclical. Usually it’s every 8 years or so, we’re going on 7ish just depending on where you start counting. The tech bubble will burst eventually, mainly social media and entertainment.

Am I worried? No, not really. I’ll shelter my money in a fixed fund or average down. Bear markets are the time to buy.

I am not sure what you mean by a fixed fund. If you are talking about bond fund, I am scared of long duration bonds right now. Maybe you are talking about an insurance product?

 

[MeWithInfinityGauntlet]

You're best off with a decent money market fund right now for fixed income.

 

[My name is]

I put my money in rental properties. I just leave a little money in stocks to play around with

 

[Omegaboy13]

I am not sure what you mean by a fixed fund. If you are talking about bond fund, I am scared of long duration bonds right now. Maybe you are talking about an insurance product?

I have the ability in my job to utilize a fixed fund that has a low return. Most funds invested in a Roth or similar have high volatility and high return. For those without the stomach for riding the waves of the market, we have it set up to use a fixed fund that offers a 3% return no matter what the market is doing. I utilize the fund to shelter my investment in bear markets. When bull markets return I change my portfolio back to my regular spread.

 

[GSP_37]

My shit doesn't have insane P/E ratios like Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, so I'm not really worried.