Economy The quiet recession - are we in it already?

[gentel]

I'm increasingly of the opinion that we're already in a recession that is being papered over

Evidence:

• Layoffs rather than booming hiring
• Stock market growth is heavily concentrated in the AI industry, which is widely perceived to be a bubble
• Consumer sentiment is down to 51.0 points from 71.8 a year ago
• Trump Admin cancelled both jobs and GDP numbers
• Trump called affordability a "con job" by the Democrats (in other words, consumers can't afford to buy stuff)
• Tariffs, DOGE layoffs, and furloughs put people out of work, hurting their ability to spend in the economy and impairing the government's facilitation of economic activity

WDYT? Recession here, on its way, or not at all?

 

[Prefect]

The chemical industry has been in a hard slowdown for two years. The bottom completely fell out this spring. No one is really investing in anything chemically related. Chemicals are generally an incredibly good indicator of demand because they are used in so many different things.

 

[Rygu]

Not if we change the definition of recession...again.

 

[cincymma79]

Not if we change the definition of recession...again.

they have dementia like joe. they’ve never even heard of this before you posted

 

[Wrath of Foamy]

We seem to be in the beginning stages of it in the UK.

Energy and water prices going up.
Food getting more expensive.
Businessmen are investing elsewhere.
Young people aren't having kids.
Young people are leaving the country to live and work overseas.
Cultural and social instability.

Doesn't seem to be just a UK issue though.

 

[F1980]

I don't know why it's pretty much the entire world affecting every country no matter what type of government they have, spanning the entire spectrum

 

[Satsui Ryu]

Not sure about a recession, but definite lull. But this has been the case for a while now. The thing that is scary is how many companies are letting go of people with the hopes of replacing them with Ai. Who it works out for remains to be seen, but they are for sure trying which I am sure ain't helping.

 

[gentel]

I don't know why it's pretty much the entire world affecting every country no matter what type of government they have, spanning the entire spectrum

That's a big thing also, is that it's a network effect. Global trade means every economy is reliant on both supply and demand from other countries. If a big enough player goes crashing down, the damage ripples outward to everyone else in the network

 

[BFoe]

they have dementia like joe. they’ve never even heard of this before you posted

Nobody changed the definition of recession. Nobody tried to change the definition of recession. The NBER has always made the determination on when we’re in a recession, and they still do.

You’re referring to the time the Biden admin made an argument that despite two quarters of negative GDP growth—which is not the official definition of a recession, incidentally—that we aren’t in a recession because a myriad of other economic indicators were strong.

TLDR: You’re wrong again.

 

[Cole train]

Yea my country been in it for a while, about to have highest unemployment in EU next year probably

 

[Witchhunt]

Nobody changed the definition of recession. Nobody tried to change the definition of recession. The NBER has always made the determination on when we’re in a recession, and they still do.

You’re referring to the time the Biden admin made an argument that despite two quarters of negative GDP growth—which is not the official definition of a recession, incidentally—that we aren’t in a recession because a myriad of other economic indicators were strong.

TLDR: You’re wrong again.

Still fluffin’ ol Joe….

Best you can hope for is a puff of dust and an IOU.

 

[cincymma79]

Nobody changed the definition of recession. Nobody tried to change the definition of recession. The NBER has always made the determination on when we’re in a recession, and they still do.

You’re referring to the time the Biden admin made an argument that despite two quarters of negative GDP growth—which is not the official definition of a recession, incidentally—that we aren’t in a recession because a myriad of other economic indicators were strong.

TLDR: You’re wrong again.

see? they can’t help themselves

 

[BFoe]

Still fluffin’ ol Joe….

Best you can hope for is a puff of dust and an IOU.

No, what we did was clean up Trump’s COVID shitshow, got all the jobs lost during the pandemic back plus added 9 million more, passed the infrastructure plan Trump promised but gave up on, brought COVID inflation down, and added only about half as much to the debt as Trump did.

But hey, Trump charged us tariffs, right??

 

[Witchhunt]

No, what we did was clean up Trump’s COVID shitshow, got all the jobs lost during the pandemic back plus added 9 million more, passed the infrastructure plan Trump promised but gave up on, brought COVID inflation down, and added only about half as much to the debt as Trump did.

But hey, Trump charged us tariffs, right??

I’d normally crack back with a sassy joke, but there’s no topping that.

 

[Mr Holmes]

Could be. I listened to some reporting about how most of this year's Black Friday shoppers were using services like Klarma (pay over time). I'll probably get mocked for this (again) but I say bring it on. I would rather deal with it now than in 10 years when I'm reaching early retirement goals.

 

[Fluffernutter]

With an aging population, will we see an increase in hiring simply due to retirements leading to job vacancies?

 

[Source]

With an aging population, will we see an increase in hiring simply due to retirements leading to job vacancies?

Someone quick reduce Medicare funding.

 

[Blunderbuss]

Could be. I listened to some reporting about how most of this year's Black Friday shoppers were using services like Klarma (pay over time). I'll probably get mocked for this (again) but I say bring it on. I would rather deal with it now than in 10 years when I'm reaching early retirement goals.

Im with you. Feels like this has been dragging on since about 2022, I just want to fucking get it outta the way already

 

[gentel]

Im with you. Feels like this has been dragging on since about 2022, I just want to fucking get it outta the way already

Yeah, 2022 was the "fed money printer turned off" slump and there was a spike in layoffs, but it was really more an adjustment to the higher-interest environment and employment and growth got back on track

Now it's different and we're running into a feedback loop of lower consumer sentiment, lower spending, lower corp revenues, and layoffs

 

[Scott Stapp]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-market-worst-stretch-since-174512537.html