The Polar Bear will dominate the Black Beast

[650lb Sumo]

Physically Lewis is 10 years older and has a 1" reach and 15lb weight advantage. They are the same height.

In terms of experience Lewis is 26-10 with 1 NC and Spivak is less experienced at 15-3. In the UFC they are 17-8 and 6-3. Recently however Derrick has lost 3 of his last 4 by (T)KO while Sergei is 5-1 in his last 6. Lewis has lost his last 2 by (T)KO and Spivak has won his last 2 by TKO. Albeit Derrick has been fighting the higher-ranked opponents.

Lewis is 37, heavy and slow with a lot of miles on the clock. He's on a downward trajectory while Spivak is rising through the rankings and I see this fight continuing those trends. Probably by decision but if washed up Black Beast gets (T)KOed again it wouldn't greatly surprise me. Sergei is younger, faster and more versatile with a higher output. He has a grappling game, which Lewis does not, although Derrick is difficult to control on the ground or keep down. Sergei doesn't have Derrick's power, but he does have fast, accurate hands, better footwork, more volume, better stamina and decent power with a grappling game to keep his opponent on the defensive as well.

Lewis is an explosive brawler who has historically relied on his chin, which is not what it was any more, and weathering storms to at some point land that one big shot. In 2022, against Sergei Spivak I don't see that working, I see Sergei simply outworking him and landing more leather for 3 rounds, not all volume, some hard shots as well and taking a UD. The longer the fight goes the slower Derrick will get. Like I said though Lewis is fading fast and if Spivak does connect hard he could finish him with strikes and I think he is smooth enough to evade Lewis's wild bombs all night. The fight will probably be mostly on the feet as Lewis has no ground game but is hard to take down and keep down. While on the ground though Sergei will also dominate but I doubt he gets a sub or GnP stoppage, he will just rack up control time.

Black Beast is about to lose 3 in a row for the 1st time in his career.

 

[Qays Stetkevich]

Even a year ago I couldn´t fathom thinking that Spivak has a chance here, but I could see a boring win. I highly doubt Spivak can/will tko Black Beast, though. . . while I´m certain that BB can KO Spivak.

 

[CatchtheseHands]

You cant count Beast out. it only takes one shot..

 

[Sweater of AV]

I thought this was about Paul Varelans and was very confused.

 

[kingofthecans]

I thought this was about Paul Varelans and was very confused.

I fucking know right. Highly dissapointing.
<{Red Card}>

 

[OldBoy91]

37 doesn't mean that much for a heavyweight, especially a guy like Lewis who never relied on speed, just brute strength and punching power.

Spivak has been looking good though, and his only recent loss is to Tom Aspinall who is 1000x the fighter Derek Lewis is. It will be interesting to see if he can hold Lewis down, because hardly anybody has been able to. Dont see him doing anything but getting KOed on the feet.

 

[HeDidn'tWantTheFight]

"I like them wrestlers"

-Derrick Lewis

 

[FreedomCricket]

Lately if Lewis gets tagged, he turtles. I could see some heavy GnP making Lewis shell up.

Depends how serious BB is taking his fight camps these days.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Black Beast loses in pressure situations and in Houston, not against pretty average Moldovans at the apex.

 

[Safton]

It's hard to say. Lewis has looked pretty bad lately while Spivak has leveled up in his game, but historically Sergei is the kind of opponent Lewis thrives against -- or at least finds a way to win against. Sergei is the better fighter in almost every metric except raw power, mind you, and has momentum on his side... but Lewis's submission defense is weirdly good, he has solid get-ups, showed improved initial TDD against Blaydes, and Spivak's chin isn't exactly granite.

I don't know, man.

 

[Yrat]

Sergey Spivak lost to Tom Aspinhall

 

[Lights Out 101]

I remember being really unimpressed with him in the Olenik fight, had him retreating and he just looked timid. He can't do that against Lewis.

 

[Kingz]

Lol, I thought this was going to be about Cole Konrad.

 

[OldBoy91]

Sergey Spivak lost to Tom Aspinhall

Aspinall at worst is like the 5th best heavyweight in the division. Hardly an embarrassment to lose to him.

 

[Guy LeDouche]

Hasn’t Lewis come out and stated very recently that he’s only showing up for paychecks these days?
Taking him seriously anymore would be a mistake, but also is underestimating someone who can hit that hard.

He’s in a very weird spot

 

[stormofshadow]

i just want to hear the majestic whale song at the weigh ins.

 

[Lee_]

The Polar Bear?

 

[The_Renaissance]

Nah. Spivac isn't bad at all but he's one of the few HW's who don't have one-punch kill power and the longer you're in there with Lewis, the more dangerous it gets which is weird. I can see Spivac dominating a couple of rounds on the mat, but eventually that power punch is coming.

 

[650lb Sumo]

The fight has been rescheduled but I stand by my original prediction. Derek is going down. Anyone got a fresh take?

 

[Alpha_T83]

I thought this was about Paul Varelans and was very confused.

Same, came to say this.