The idea that low birth rates are bad needs to go.

[Lead]

Yeah I didn't really understand it either until I read into it a little bit more. Basically, when people aren't dying of disease left and right, the population stabilizes and birthrates decline. They are trying to stabilize the population by distributing vaccines on a mass scale. They need more help though.

Whoaaaa. What do you mean with that last part? What vaccines are doing that?

 

[Der Eisbär]

I disagree, You could use the counter argument for almost every culture/civilisation that's lasted longer than 500 years. They all continue/d on seriously flawed, generally with the help of technology advancement. Why would we be any different to all of human history.

I would bring up nuclear armament as an example of technology outpacing maturity but we are only 70 years on so I wouldn't say we've survived it yet.

It's safe to say that technologically we're pretty far off from interstellar space travel right? Look at the data surrounding sustainability. It's pretty evident to me that we will go extinct and/or collapse civilization before we colonize the stars if we do not make changes. I'm glad you brought up nuclear arms, that's another example of what I'm talking about. If we don't mature enough to do away with them, then we may annihilate humanity before we expand through the cosmos.

 

[Der Eisbär]

Whoaaaa. What do you mean with that last part? What vaccines are doing that?

The malaria vaccine?

 

[Lead]

Thank goodness a thread like this showed up on one of my idle fridays.

 

[Lead]

The malaria vaccine?

It's lowering birthrates?

 

[Der Eisbär]

You are drawing the wrong conclusion that unsustainable usage of some resources and certain unsustainable land use pattersn means that the current population level is unsustainable.

I am basing my current conclusion on the current population and the current level of consumption and the current method of consumption. Do you have anything to suggest that the current level or method of consumption will change? Or is it just wishful thinking and normalcy bias?

 

[Der Eisbär]

It's lowering birthrates?

I didn't say that. I said their vaccines are stabilizing the population and thereby lowering birthrates (hopefully, over time). But they need more resources. What the Bill and Melinda gates foundation is doing is like putting up a few logs to try and stop a river. Their operations need to be vastly expanded.

 

[Lead]

I am basing my current conclusion on the current population and the current level of consumption and the current method of consumption. Do you have anything to suggest that the current level or method of consumption will change? Or is it just wishful thinking and normalcy bias?

I think it may be a little bit more than wishful thinking. There were points extinct by population were expected before but then there was an agricultural revolution. I think there is just expectations that enough thought will be put to issues that are this dire and will be solved as a result. Water depletion no longer becomes a problem if we are able to remove salt easier than we can now.

 

[Lead]

I didn't say that. I said their vaccines are stabilizing the population and thereby lowering birthrates (hopefully, over time). But they need more resources. What the Bill and Melinda gates foundation is doing is like putting up a few logs to try and stop a river. Their operations need to be vastly expanded.

Ahh, ha okay. I was reading all your stuff and then thought you went full CT right there.

 

[CauseImbetta]

That doesn't make them more successful, because humans cannot continue to breed to unlimited numbers - that will result in total extinction too. Muslims are simply less educated, therefore they have more children. You see that as success?

If there are no whites left, then yes. Darwin.

 

[mon]

It's safe to say that technologically we're pretty far off from interstellar space travel right? Look at the data surrounding sustainability. It's pretty evident to me that we will go extinct and/or collapse civilization before we colonize the stars if we do not make changes. I'm glad you brought up nuclear arms, that's another example of what I'm talking about. If we don't mature enough to do away with them, then we may annihilate humanity before we expand through the cosmos.

No real evidence to support my view but I disagree about the tech. At the rate computing was advancing and now with the quantum computing and AI's starting to kick off I see no reason why in 100 years we're not outside our solar system.

As for nuclear armament, I disagree. Our species immaturity is the very reason they're necessary, they're potentially why I speak English not Japanese, Russian, Chinese etc. While I hate the idea of them they are a necessary part of world peace. Either way the genies out of the bottle and sticking your head in the sand with a bare arse in the air will just get you butt fucked.

 

[Der Eisbär]

I think it may be a little bit more than wishful thinking. There were points extinct by population were expected before but then there was an agricultural revolution. I think there is just expectations that enough thought will be put to issues that are this dire and will be solved as a result. Water depletion no longer becomes a problem if we are able to remove salt easier than we can now.

I hope that you're right. But I try looking at this from a sober position with no real inherent bias. I want humanity to succeed. I already stated earlier itt what my hope is for our species. I just don't know how rational it is to rely on unpredictable and unforeseeable technological innovations to save us from this massive mess we've made.

 

[Lead]

No real evidence to support my view but I disagree about the tech. At the rate computing was advancing and now with the quantum computing and AI's starting to kick off I see no reason why in 100 years we're not outside our solar system.

As for nuclear armament, I disagree. Our species immaturity is the very reason they're necessary, they're potentially why I speak English not Japanese, Russian, Chinese etc. While I hate the idea of them they are a necessary part of world peace. Either way the genies out of the bottle and sticking your head in the sand with a bare arse in the air will just get you butt fucked.

We'll be lucky to make significant progress with mars within a 100 years. Colonizing beyond our solar system is not feasible in that time.

 

[Lead]

I hope that you're right. But I try looking at this from a sober position with no real inherent bias. I want humanity to succeed. I already stated earlier itt what my hope is for our species. I just don't know how rational it is to rely on unpredictable and unforeseeable technological innovations to save us from this massive mess we've made.

Nothing wrong with that. I just am saying bright people are aware of this and putting their efforts into these issues. As much as people critique humanity, it does seem to be self correcting when issues become serious enough. I can't help but to see an optimistic future if we can handle societal and civil issues with rational minds.

 

[Jorge Luis Borges]

I am basing my current conclusion on the current population and the current level of consumption and the current method of consumption. Do you have anything to suggest that the current level or method of consumption will change? Or is it just wishful thinking and normalcy bias?

Why yes, as seafood becomes more scarce, prices will rise and different food sources will be sought out. Happily, there are places like the US and Europe that produce a shit ton of food and that are not currently producing as much as they would if demand from places like Japan were higher.

The earth obviously can't hold an infinite number of humans. So sooner or later one would expect a generation of Malthusians to be correct. But it isn't this generation. Given that the human population seems to be leveling off rather than continuing to increase at current rates, looks like we'll be just fine.

Now you did bring up a number of points that are serious problems that do need addressed, but they aren't as existential as you've painted them (for humans anyway).

 

[Jorge Luis Borges]

Nothing wrong with that. I just am saying bright people are aware of this and putting their efforts into these issues. As much as people critique humanity, it does seem to be self correcting when issues become serious enough. I can't help but to see an optimistic future if we can handle societal and civil issues with rational minds.

My time in the War Room has given me a lot of hope in this regard. Too many mart people on all sides of every issue for things to go far wrong.

 

[mon]

We'll be lucky to make significant progress with mars within a 100 years. Colonizing beyond our solar system is not feasible in that time.

Maybe, well see I guess. I think it would be far more accurate to say that along with "if we try and travel in the manner that we are now".

My grandad was born in 1900 and if you showed him a picture of 1980 he would have believed you were mad.
Just like training every thing progresses rapidly than a long(feels like forever) consolidation phase before you take off again, to me the last 60 years or so are the consolidation phase. I gave it 100 years and to me its not inconceivable for new tech to develop new methods to reach new destinations. It'd be like trying to tell a ships captain that in 100 years you'd cross the Atlantic in hours, he'd think you're a gibbering idiot as who would have thought you'd fly.
https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch3en/conc3en/linertransatlantic.html

 

[mon]

My time in the War Room has given me a lot of hope in this regard. Too many mart people on all sides of every issue for things to go far wrong.

Not to be a downer but one stupid person with a hammer can undo years of sculpting. Which is why everyone should be far more active in their community and politics, this means all aspects of politics.

 

[Jorge Luis Borges]

Not to be a downer but one stupid person with a hammer can undo years of sculpting. Which is why everyone should be far more active in their community and politics, this means all aspects of politics.

Wouldn't that be a reason to keep all these hammerers out of politics?

 

[mon]

Wouldn't that be a reason to keep all these hammerers out of politics?

The problem with politics is the same problem with life, self interest and greed. Until there are enough checks in place within the political systems the proverbial can will always be kicked down the road.

I'd rather a honest firebrand than a dishonest polite gentleman/lady, at least that way I know what he/her is thinking and going to do.

You're right though but wishing your that is to deny the realities of life. Attila/Genghis/Mao/Stalin/Hitler all happened and while the scale may be different the story plays out everyday of the year. From your NK leadership down to the arsehole husband beating his family, power and control are what the sick desire. Until the Sociopathic traits are acknowledged and countered it'll never change.