Talked to striking coach about Diaz-McGregor II

[Primitivo]

Cool stuff, TS.

 

[sickc0d3r]

Hard to beat a Diaz if you can't rassle. I don't see Conor being a threat to kick and move ala Condit. He needs to land a big left hand to win, imo. He found the liver with a nice hook once in their last fight and I think he needs to look for more of that.

 

[serr]

Barboza's problem is his chin. Some more resistance he'd be champion by now, also gets a lot of fights in short notice and even though he shows up in good shape, a full camp barboza is more dangerous.

It has to be more than that. Every fight, his strikes and combo look faster, stronger, and crisper. Yet he gets beat by guys who slug it out, wtf. He didn't get KOd in the Johnson or Ferguson fights, he just lost.

 

[slipleft]

You must not know what you're watching when you watch MMA.

And bookies didn't analyze anything, lines move according to how people bet. More morons like you bet on Conor thinking the fight was a fluke, so it moves the line making him the favorite. Please, implore your buddies to bet on Conor as well. And bet BIG. The more the line shifts in Conor's favor, the more money I'll make.

Betting odds are incredibly accurate predictors of results (in fights as in all things) - the aggregate opinion of people who put their $ where there mouth is matters, a lot.

You are correct that the final odds aren't due to the analytical brilliance of bookmakers, but the odds are still quite informative.

 

[Venom]

I think Nate stops him in the final round or maybe it'll end like Diaz-Penn with McGregor unable to respond to Nate's volume strikes.

 

[legkicktko]

It has to be more than that. Every fight, his strikes and combo look faster, stronger, and crisper. Yet he gets beat by guys who slug it out, wtf. He didn't get KOd in the Johnson or Ferguson fights, he just lost.

To be fair, he was beating Ferguson. He won the first even after getting fouled and not getting five to recover.

 

[Yabuki]

Ferguson was short notice and MJ was one of the cases where he confuses everyone...but i still trust him, Barboza will find his way, hope he beats Pettis soundly and people will see it.

 

[Ragnal]

I love Barboza's striking, but his chin is suspect.

 

[JayElectra]

Tough to disagree with any of that. The only thing I'd say is that it's probably unrealistic to expect McGregor to completely reinvent his striking style in a few months (and even if could, he likely has too much pride to do so).

 

[Shapky86]

Tough to disagree with any of that. The only thing I'd say is that it's probably unrealistic to expect McGregor to completely reinvent his striking style in a few months (and even if could, he likely has too much pride to do so).

This.

 

[Shapky86]

Tough to disagree with any of that. The only thing I'd say is that it's probably unrealistic to expect McGregor to completely reinvent his striking style in a few months (and even if could, he likely has too much pride to do so).

He has to much to fix in a little amount of time

 

[Seismic]

You must not know what you're watching when you watch MMA.

And bookies didn't analyze anything, lines move according to how people bet.

I'm the son of a bookie. I've worked in his betting shop for many, many years. You are clueless on the matter. The lines are not set by the public, they are later influenced by the public yes, though typically not to any great extent, not that it would make a difference if they did, as I clearly said Conor OPENED with short odds, and bookies aren't in the habit of starting the line with cluelessly generous odds for the public to take advantage of. Sports are analyzed to a degree you would not believe before lines open. They get it right from the beginning. In summary, oddsmakers set the lines, the clue is in their title.

 

[mac11]

He says Conor starts out with good footwork like against Aldo, but once he exchanges he forgets to get out of range as the fight goes on and his footwork becomes non-existent.

This is a very good point that I've seen a few people make but they usually get shouted down by the "master of movement" crowd.

I noticed.
He kept catching Nate and standing in range just looking and expecting Nate to crumble from his shots I think.

 

[Kwic]

I said it and I will say it again, I could watch Barboza fight every week. Dude is awesome to watch.

 

[Pure Dust]

You would think Nate is undefeated given the talk of battle plans need to be drawn up to beat him. Lennox Lewis lost to Oliver McCall and Rahman despite him being the far superior fighter. Shit happens. There is such a thing as a bad night. Lewis annihilated them in his rematches and that's why the bookies have Conor at short odds for his rematch. Oddsmakers aren't swayed by irrational hatred for Conor like the Natehuggers are. They have coldly analyzed the rematch and have come to the conclusion that Nate isn't suddenly amazing and Conor isn't suddenly shit.

Haven't heard anyone say Conor is suddenly shit. Nate is just a bad matchup for him. He can eat Conor's left, and he has better boxing, cardio, and chin.

 

[CPH]

It is shite. Let me tell you, no one with an 8 inch reach advantage should be hit as many times as Conor was against Chad. Especially the same punch over and over.

I only partly agree. Zambidis made a career of getting inside on much taller opponents and destroying them with hooks.

Of course, though he is also quick and explosive, Chad ain't Zambidis. So yes: Conor should not have been eating the left hook so much. He also ate several against Holloway. I actually think that Aldo and Pederneiras picked up on this weakness and were looking for it. Unfortunately, Aldo got over-eager and instead of timing it properly, leapt in like a rookie...

 

[Pure Dust]

I agree, but he's losing against sluggish guys like Michael Johnson and Ferguson. So how important is crisp technique in MMA?

Guys like Barboza have to fear the takedown.

 

[Nate Dogg]

That was a great point by the coach about how Conor starts off fights with good footwork (darting in and out, throwing short exchanges and then exiting at different angles). But once the fight goes over a minute he plods forward and his footwork is gone.

I've noticed in his sparring training videos that he's very slow and methodical with all the partners they bring in round after round. He has occasional flurries of offense, but settles down right away. He needs sparring partners that will put on that constant pressure like Diaz will, and also be skilled enough for him to respect them.

Artem is Conor's primary sparring partner, and I can guarantee you that Conor does not respect his striking at all. So of course you'll feel like you can last for days when constantly fighting someone you're familiar with and who's no where near your equal in skill.

Also find it interesting that the ATT coach is laying out a gameplan to win by points instead of KO. The Diaz chin is so renown that coaches don't even plan for a finish, because it's so rare.

Anyways, Conor has never and shouldn't start kicking the legs. He doesn't have the same blitz power that RDA, Barboza have that could cause significant damage to hobble Diaz. He should stick to his bread and butter with his spinning/side kicks to the gut (keep the target large and you'll miss less often). Throw in oblique kicks to maintain distance. If Diaz is stunned, then throw out some wheel and switch kicks (otherwise they're easily avoided in part because of the reach/height advantage).

 

[The ScorpioN]

I'm the son of a bookie. I've worked in his betting shop for many, many years. You are clueless on the matter. The lines are not set by the public, they are later influenced by the public yes, though typically not to any great extent, not that it would make a difference if they did, as I clearly said Conor OPENED with short odds, and bookies aren't in the habit of starting the line with cluelessly generous odds for the public to take advantage of. Sports are analyzed to a degree you would not believe before lines open. They get it right from the beginning. In summary, oddsmakers set the lines, the clue is in their title.

They sure did that in their first match up. Chael called it right down the middle and picked Nate. And he wasn't the only fighter to do that.

Won me money the first time, and will win me money again as long as people like you are analyzing this fight.

 

[SlicerDM]

I agree, but he's losing against sluggish guys like Michael Johnson and Ferguson. So how important is crisp technique in MMA?

Not that important.