Are the powers involved content with this arrangement? I'm of the view that warring mini-states can be a good thing if you want to maintain a measure of control over the region.
I wonder who the eventual hegemon will be?
Iran: Seems to have the population and the right kind of demographics- young, and generally educated people. Despite internal upheavals and external pressures ranging from crippling sanctions, cyber attacks, and assassinations, they managed to keep their shit together (for the most part) and have their fingers in all sorts of pies (Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon.) Their affiliated militias in Syria and Lebanon are well trained and can be effective in their way (they somehow managed to survive for 34 days against the IDF in '06, which was amazing to me at the time.)
Israel: Best military with the strongest patron. Educated, mostly unified. Stable and mostly democratic (although they can't seem to keep their PM's from getting indicted.) Despite the fact that everyone else in the region officially hates their guts, they have managed to reach out with some back-channel diplomacy with Saudi Arabia. With all that, a prosperous and politically active diaspora, and of course, the Sampson Option they are probably always going to be a major player in the region. Hopefully the Palestinian issue can be sorted some day.
Saudi Arabia: I'm heavily biased against this country (more specifically, the leadership/royal family.)
I'd like to hope that the recent reforms they have enacted are a sign of positive changes that are to come, but the cynic in me sees this as a half-assed reaction to the fact their main rival, Iran, puts it's women in universities, while the Saudi's have just only made moves to allow their women to drive. That (imo) is no way to grow a future for your country. Also their shitbaggery in Yemen, and the way they transmit the most odious form of their religion to the world seems to be ways they try to expand influence; but their main advantage (as i see it) is their ability to use oil and money to ingratiate themselves with western leadership, while playing up their role to the Arab street as "Keepers of the Faith" which protects them from a great deal of the fuckery they have wrought upon this world.
Russia: I'm not so clear on Russia. I know they have interests in Syria from a while back, they have a naval base, and have been flexing their muscles for the goal of expanding their influence (and countering American influence.) They can still project their power to some effective degree, they still have heavyweight knockout power. The alignment with Iran is a formidable one. But they are lead by corrupt shitbags (some call them oligarchs) who loot their own country while forcefully stifling opposition. Twenty five percent of Russian males die before the age of fifty-five mostly due to alcohol. Economically they also seem a little bit too resource dependant. The bottom may yet fall out from under that country while they are out busting heads globally , but Putin is a strong leader.....just ask the gay people.
Turkey: Erodogen seems to talk a lot of stuff. He's strengthened his grip on power by arresting thousands of people he thinks is connected to some muslim charity group, survived the "coup attempt" opened a corridor for terrorists to flow into Syria to weaken and eventually overthrow the regime (and didn't suffer any political damage at all when that tactic blew up in his face from that nightclub shooting), told his military to stand idly while women were fighting for their lives against terrorists in Kobane...and while scared shitless of the kurds, he's been making sure their dreams for their own country will never happen. They seem to have an educated population that may yet survive his leadership. They also have a very capable military (at least on paper) and solid connections with all players in the region, even Israel.
The United States: The biggest baddest mofo on the block, the reigning champ. Knockout power in both hands. Money, gear and the will to use both.
I'm not sure what the foreign policy objectives are under the Trump administration other than messing with Iran ...but is this on behalf of their allies in the region who hate Iran, or is Iran somehow a clear and present threat to the US?
The Kurds: You never know...the jews were stateless and persecuted for the longest time and when they were finally given (or allowed to take) their country they did it with a mindset that the country would be a "light unto nations" (it isn't,at all but it's better than any other country in the region)
The Kurds might be able to pull it of if things go their way and they stop getting betrayed. They put in work against Daesh, and they don't seem to be moderate enough (from the limited info I've read about them), and not in the habit of suicide bombing and beheading people. They share the same traits as the Israelis in that most countries in the region don't really want them to have a country.
My pick is the Kurds. My reasoning is purely emotional - they are the underdogs, and they don't seem to have as much blood on their hands as everyone else. Apologies for the wall of text, it's a bad habit.
