Surprised so many pros picking Diaz over Henderson

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Thanatos2

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http://www.cagepotato.com/videos-frankie-edgar-gray-maynard-donald-cerrone-more-make-their-picks-for-ben-henderson-vs-nate-diaz/

Im actually a little surprised so many pros and others are picking Nate in this fight. This matchup is very unfavorable for Nate.

Nate's always been weak against strong, athletic wrestlers. In his welterweight stint, he got manhandled by Rory Macdonald and Dong Hyun Kim. In his previous stint at lightweight, he got outwrestled by Joe Stevenson, Gray Maynard and Clay Guida. Ben Henderson has very good wrestling, he's very strong, very athletic and explosive. Ben's also got a good leg kicking game, and if you take the success Cerrone had against Diaz with the leg kicks, I think, you have to really doubt Nate's chances of winning this fight. Nate's got great BJJ, but it's never been effective against the wrestlers he's fought because he was never strong enough to lock anything in. I wonder what Nate has in mind for this fight?
 
well, the good news is that pro's are wrong just as if not more often than sherdoggers.
 
Nate has the cool factor. I think the pros have it wrong unfortunately
 
http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f2/complete-database-pro-pick-records-1102731/

here is a sampling grabbed randomly in teh middle of the list:

Kevin Burns: 8-9-1
Roan Carneiro 1-1-0
Shonie Carter 1-2-0
Mike Ciesnolevicz 3-2-0
Rich Clementi 2-1-0
Dewey Cooper 4-5-0
Kit Cope 6-10-1 (The only 1 to predict Leites over Silva)
Patrick Cote 6-7-0
Kim Couture 0-1-0
Randy Couture 4-7-1
Mac Danzig: 4-4-1
Marcus Davis 2-1-0​

anyone who "assumes" pro's picks are gospel have simply never tracked em.
 
probably because he's a fighter's fighter.

and has a great chance to win, given his skill set, cardio, and ever evolving game.
 
I have Bendo by going crazy with leg kicks and TDs to score points.

But Diaz can win by outboxing or submission.

A great, great fight.
 
They admire his durability and strong BJJ and also the fact that he has been in the UFC longer that Ben.
 
Pros are fans too. Of course they're sometimes wrong.
I think Bendo will win, but I won't be surprised if Nate does.
 
I thik the fact that Benson hasn't finished a fight since he joined UFC and the close Edgar 2nd fight made them question his skills a little more coz Nate has great cardio and endurance and looked impressive in his last 3 fights, finishing 2 out of 3
 
It's a five round fight. I consider Diaz the safer bet because he can finish the fight while Bendo will likely have to outscore him for 25 minutes.
 
I actually see this being a bad match up for Bendo. I may be biased though.
I also think Bendos sub defense and cardio is really overrated. It was pretty clear he gassed during the first Cerrone fight and the Pettis fight. He was spamming TDs and looked like a wrestler who was gassed holding on to the ankles of his opponent. I also don't see how close submissions make you hard to submit. If anything that just shows you are submission prone. A guy with good sub defense would never be caught in those positions. Nate has the technique to finish close submissions that Cerrone and others couldn't. He really only got out of those spots because of his strength. Strength isn't going to work with Nates level of BJJ.

Only way I see Bendo winning is if he takes Diaz down and works that standing up GNP from the guard and pound on Nate like he did in his first fight with Cerrone. He just can't gas or fight the way he did in the latter parts versus Cerrone because if he does, Nate is finishing him. Taking Nate down is an issue too, he seemed to leave his neck out there with his TDs. Nate can sub him if he does leave his neck out there.
 
Bendo does not have a top control game like DHK, I can see Bendo getting submitted. However I still favor bendo to win a decision.

Also Maynard didn't out wrestle diaz he won a close striking match.
 
SeattleFightFan said:
http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f2/complete-database-pro-pick-records-1102731/

here is a sampling grabbed randomly in teh middle of the list:

Kevin Burns: 8-9-1
Roan Carneiro 1-1-0
Shonie Carter 1-2-0
Mike Ciesnolevicz 3-2-0
Rich Clementi 2-1-0
Dewey Cooper 4-5-0
Kit Cope 6-10-1 (The only 1 to predict Leites over Silva)
Patrick Cote 6-7-0
Kim Couture 0-1-0
Randy Couture 4-7-1
Mac Danzig: 4-4-1
Marcus Davis 2-1-0​

anyone who "assumes" pro's picks are gospel have simply never tracked em.
Click to expand...

Nailed it.. The pro's opinions for the most part are no better than sherdog, if not worse in terms of bias.. Unless its someone like Cruz, Florian, or Chael I don't pay pro-picks much attention
 
probably because he's a fighter's fighter.

and has a great chance to win, given his skill set, cardio, and ever evolving game.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't say he's got anything outside of punchers chance of winning, which with Nate isn't a big chance, cause he doesn't have one hit KO power. If his taunting can get into Bendo's head, which is possible, Ben likes to swing for the fences sometimes, he can land some effective shots in those kind of exchanges. Thing for me is Ben doesn't strike me as someone who would fall for that, he's a seasoned pro. I dont see him subbing Ben, Ben's shown to be notoriously hard to sub, and I think he'll have a strength edge when in Nate's guard.

Cardio is a non-issue as well, Ben has shown in two fast paced 5 round fights with Frankie Edgar that he has Cardio to match Nate.
 
pro fighters ALWAYS picks his FRIENDS, TEAMMATES, TRAINING MATES, etc. ALWAYS.

Means NOTHING.

Y really want Nate Diaz no win, but the BIG favorite is Henderson, lets face it.
 
Metallicalabran said:
pro fighters ALWAYS picks his FRIENDS, TEAMMATES, TRAINING MATES, etc. ALWAYS.

Means NOTHING.

Y really want Nate Diaz no win, but the BIG favorite is Henderson, lets face it.
Click to expand...

Um? According to the sherdog vote I believe 2/3ths of Sherdog have Nate winning.
According to casino odds I believe its +125 Nate -125 Bendo. Those are almost dead even odds.
So what are we facing again?
 
Thanatos2 said:
http://www.cagepotato.com/videos-frankie-edgar-gray-maynard-donald-cerrone-more-make-their-picks-for-ben-henderson-vs-nate-diaz/

Im actually a little surprised so many pros and others are picking Nate in this fight. This matchup is very unfavorable for Nate.

Nate's always been weak against strong, athletic wrestlers. In his welterweight stint, he got manhandled by Rory Macdonald and Dong Hyun Kim. In his previous stint at lightweight, he got outwrestled by Joe Stevenson, Gray Maynard and Clay Guida. Ben Henderson has very good wrestling, he's very strong, very athletic and explosive. Ben's also got a good leg kicking game, and if you take the success Cerrone had against Diaz with the leg kicks, I think, you have to really doubt Nate's chances of winning this fight. Nate's got great BJJ, but it's never been effective against the wrestlers he's fought because he was never strong enough to lock anything in. I wonder what Nate has in mind for this fight?
Click to expand...
i also got bendo . so he so well rounded
 
My bet is on an excellent fight.
It has absolutely no bearing who you, I, the pros or anyone else "picks"; thats why they fight.
I was leaning ever so slightly towards Nate. Now I am undecided and will call it a true toss up.
Good luck to them both.
 
They probably realize that Ben likely can't finish Nate, but Nate can finish Ben. Cardio being fairly equal, 5 round fight favors the guy with more ways to win.

That said, this is a toss up for me because of the obvious wrestling advantage.
 
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