• The upgrade to XenForo 2.3.7 has now been completed. Please report any issues to our administrators.

Economy stonks v23, santa claus rally or santa claws rally?

boingyman said:
Picked up some RWM yesterday as a hedge. Debating if I should scalp my gains before the market closes.
Click to expand...
Sold RWM for a 5.5% scalp even though we may feel more pain. Scary thing is that many stocks are already ridiculously priced down while the market/indices in general still have a lot more room to drop
 
Pride23 said:
Wow, a coordinated hit on EV stocks. Tesla, Xpeng, Lucid, Rivian all down greater than 10% today. Tesla ~ 50 PE at this price at the end of 2022. Just this year's growth.

Bunch of companies with wild swings today.
Click to expand...

Yeah and its only just getting started before more heavy red. NIO under $20 could be a buy IMO. It's getting close to a fair value which I give $15-$20. LCID & TSLA I wouldn't go anywhere near at current levels. I'd only invest in TSLA in the 300s. LCID is basically spin the wheel at the roulette table if you like a gamble. I wouldn't even touch it at $15 personally lulz but I'm kinda cheap and a gay bear.
 
brackis1 said:
The markets were setup to absolutely slaughter random joes. It's peak capitalism: when the wealthy cant earn real returns on investing in companies the next grift is fleecing rubes on asset arbitrage.
Click to expand...


Roger that...I havnt asked for exact details because after the first 25% you can tell he doesn't wanna talk about it. That said he put 40 in a index fund...which is down for sure. Then 10k each in 10 of the most horrible stocks.....months ago. Hes down well over 50% already. Luckily his wife doesn't ask for details.
 
Gas121 said:
Yeah and its only just getting started before more heavy red. NIO under $20 could be a buy IMO. It's getting close to a fair value which I give $15-$20. LCID & TSLA I wouldn't go anywhere near at current levels. I'd only invest in TSLA in the 300s. LCID is basically spin the wheel at the roulette table if you like a gamble. I wouldn't even touch it at $15 personally lulz but I'm kinda cheap and a gay bear.
Click to expand...

Based off of what. Like people always say things like I wouldn't invest in Tesla unless it was in the 300s. So you think based on its EPS of 2022 the PE should be between 15-20 with them growing earnings over 100% yoy? Their 2023 earnings the PE would be like 10.
 
Pride23 said:
Based off of what. Like people always say things like I wouldn't invest in Tesla unless it was in the 300s. So you think based on its EPS of 2022 the PE should be between 15-20 with them growing earnings over 100% yoy? Their 2023 earnings the PE would be like 10.
Click to expand...

In order to justify its current valuations you are basically saying 'this is going to happen in x number of years', the valuation is priced in for a number of years. To be a trillion dollar company it needs to hit like 700B in revenue. The growth will eventually slow down. Car companies do not generally have big profit margins. Tesla cars are pricey and the average joe cannot afford one.

I think its way overpriced unless you are betting in ten years it will produce these kind of numbers which would then justify a 1 trillion marketcap. Market is forward looking yes but like a decade? The investment makes no sense at this stage. You are buying a stock at a hugely inflated value and basically betting on a company that is priced way ahead. History shows this usually does not end well.

That said, I hope it works out for ya but for me it's way past my buy point and risk tolerance at this kinda price.
 
brackis1 said:
LOL Cathie bought some TSLA today bahahah
Click to expand...



although... she kinda did play tsla fairly well, i think. wasn't she selling at/near the top?

she may have botched the rest of her index, but she at least made money on tsla.
 
Gas121 said:
In order to justify its current valuations you are basically saying 'this is going to happen in x number of years', the valuation is priced in for a number of years. To be a trillion dollar company it needs to hit like 700B in revenue. The growth will eventually slow down. Car companies do not generally have big profit margins. Tesla cars are pricey and the average joe cannot afford one.

I think its way overpriced unless you are betting in ten years it will produce these kind of numbers which would then justify a 1 trillion marketcap. Market is forward looking yes but like a decade? The investment makes no sense at this stage. You are buying a stock at a hugely inflated value and basically betting on a company that is priced way ahead. History shows this usually does not end well.

That said, I hope it works out for ya but for me it's way past my buy point and risk tolerance at this kinda price.
Click to expand...

The valuation isn't even priced in for this current year which is why I don't get the comment. The EPS they put up this current year of 2022, with a PE of 50 would give you the 800 or so billion they are currently valued at. The earnings are growing extremely fast so that PE multiple will compress really fast if the price stays where it is or even goes lower to where you have your target.

Apple did about 375 billion of revenue trailing 12 months and they have a 2.6 trillion market cap and they are not growing as fast as Tesla who will probably do close to 100 billion in revenue this year with EV only being a single digit percentage of vehicle sales world wide at the moment. Really it's the earnings that matters on the revenue and Tesla has the best in class.
 
Pride23 said:
The valuation isn't even priced in for this current year which is why I don't get the comment. The EPS they put up this current year of 2022, with a PE of 50 would give you the 800 or so billion they are currently valued at. The earnings are growing extremely fast so that PE multiple will compress really fast if the price stays where it is or even goes lower to where you have your target.

Apple did about 375 billion of revenue trailing 12 months and they have a 2.6 trillion market cap and they are not growing as fast as Tesla who will probably do close to 100 billion in revenue this year with EV only being a single digit percentage of vehicle sales world wide at the moment. Really it's the earnings that matters on the revenue and Tesla has the best in class.
Click to expand...

Hope your right and you make lots of money. I do believe Musk is a fantastic captain of the ship and it’s the kind of person you want leading. I’m just not so sure though, not that I am not believer or anything - it’s the forward looking projections which are monstrous that scares me. It’s a big if and they’ll need to steam roll every quarter for years. I think for me there is better value out there. I get it’s pricey for a reason but for me in the 800s is a massive risk at this point. Those that bought low can sit tight but buying here for a huge premium is incredibly risky.

If it ever got to 300s I’d probably take a decent sized position. Tesla is either a ride or die stock at this point.
 
Pride23 said:
Based off of what. Like people always say things like I wouldn't invest in Tesla unless it was in the 300s. So you think based on its EPS of 2022 the PE should be between 15-20 with them growing earnings over 100% yoy? Their 2023 earnings the PE would be like 10.
Click to expand...
I've got a few companies that actually have recently grown earnings over 100% YOY with a P/E in single digits. For example:

PATK 2020 EPS = $4.27
PATK TTM EPS = $8.86
PATK currently trading at $61.56. 52 week high was $98.83. They did do an offering of convertible notes, potentially dilutive, recently, but nothing even close to justifying that price decline.
 
Pride23 said:
The valuation isn't even priced in for this current year which is why I don't get the comment. The EPS they put up this current year of 2022, with a PE of 50 would give you the 800 or so billion they are currently valued at. The earnings are growing extremely fast so that PE multiple will compress really fast if the price stays where it is or even goes lower to where you have your target.

Apple did about 375 billion of revenue trailing 12 months and they have a 2.6 trillion market cap and they are not growing as fast as Tesla who will probably do close to 100 billion in revenue this year with EV only being a single digit percentage of vehicle sales world wide at the moment. Really it's the earnings that matters on the revenue and Tesla has the best in class.
Click to expand...

Apple is a tech company, a sector which generally has sky high PE ratios. Tesla is a bastard mix of a car maker, utility, tech company, and financial, the first 2 have low margins & PEs. I haven't dug into Tesla's financials in years since this is not a sector I play in, but you need to look at which part of the business Tesla's revenues & profits are coming from along with the growth expectations in each area before you can come up with a reasonable valuation for the company as a whole.
 
aerius said:
Apple is a tech company, a sector which generally has sky high PE ratios. Tesla is a bastard mix of a car maker, utility, tech company, and financial, the first 2 have low margins & PEs. I haven't dug into Tesla's financials in years since this is not a sector I play in, but you need to look at which part of the business Tesla's revenues & profits are coming from along with the growth expectations in each area before you can come up with a reasonable valuation for the company as a whole.
Click to expand...

Tesla is rapidly approaching Apple like Margins. You should check it out.
 
$VRTX beat earnings by .08. Moving my sell number to 240 might actually work out.
 
HOLA said:
MA up 5.64%

AAPL up 5.92%

Click to expand...

Want $AAPl to drive the market so I can short it on Monday. This is coming from a guy whose portfolio is currently 14% $AAPL but too be fair have owned them for a long time.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,271,388
Messages
57,713,773
Members
175,814
Latest member
Geovane santos

Share this page

Back
Top