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Economy Stocks thread v28: in loving memory of Rob Mafia and Brackis1

HOLA

Gold Belt
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Last thread: https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/stonks-v27-banks-the-kings-of-vega.4283065/

Time for a new one. Let's go.

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I've had TD Bank (TD) on my watchlist for a while. I owned them many years ago. I see they've gone on a nice decline recently, from $85 in 2022 to $56 currently. Curious as to why, I looked into a bit. Apparently, these motherfuckers were in cahoots with cartels, laundering money from the sale of fentanyl?!

Jeez louise! I thought the Canadian banks would be more mellow than the American ones. I guess not.

A probe conducted by the U.S. Justice Department into TD Bank's (NYSE:TD) internal controls centers on Chinese crime syndicates and drug traffickers using the Canadian bank to launder money from U.S. fentanyl proceeds, according to a Thursday media report.

Prosecutors alleged that the criminals bribed TD (TD) staffers, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing court filings and people familiar with the matter.

The lender is facing three other U.S. investigations into its anti-money laundering controls. On Wednesday, TD (TD) said it had taken an initial provision of $450M related to U.S. regulatory and law enforcement investigations of its anti-money laundering practices, and expects additional monetary penalties.

A TD spokeswoman told the Journal that the bank is cooperating with regulators while bolstering its anti-money laundering program.

U.S. Attorney's Office in New Jersey is leading the DoJ's probe into TD's anti-money laundering practices, the newspaper said. The investigation was launched after a criminal case into an operation that laundered at least $653M in profits from illegal narcotics.
 
Alright, I changed my mind. Did a deeper dive, liked what I saw, decided to make WRB a permanent position. Added a bunch more today. My average cost per-share is now $78.97.

The company was founded in 1967, by WR Berkley himself, who is still around as chairman of the board. He also owns 1/5th of the shares. When I sold the shares tenish years ago, he was still CEO, but was transitioning out and giving power to his nepo baby son. It was a bit of an unknown, which was one of the reasons I sold. Nepo baby has done well, however. Stock has gone up 357% over the last ten years vs. 173% for the SPY.

The company first went public in 1974, and the performance has been pretty great. They have an average annual gain of 23.3% since 1974 vs. 12.6% for the S&P 500. That's solid outperformance over a long period.

Now they have a market cap of $20 billion, which will make outperformance a bit harder to achieve, but I think they should still be able to do it.

Some people consider them one of the "Mini-Berkshires," along with some others like Markel and Alleghany (which Berkshire actually bought in 2022), but they're really not super similar. While Berkshire switched in large part from mainly owning common stocks to outright buying companies, becoming a sprawling conglomerate, WRB still mainly sticks to fixed income. Out of their total investments around 80% is fixed income. But they're involved in other areas, everything from real estate to arbitrage trading.
 
In addition to WRB, I've decided to invest in another insurer: RLI.

These guys are a bit smaller, with a market cap of $6.7 billion. They also mostly invest in fixed income.

Where they're pretty extraordinary, however, is with their underwriting results. They've achieved an underwriting profit for 28 years in a row, with the combined ratio often in the mid 80's.

If you're not familiar with Insurance, basically the combined ratio is the sum of underwriting losses and expenses divided by earned premiums. If it's 100, that's the break-even point. Below 100 is underwriting profitability.

Many insurers operate at an underwriting loss, attempting to make profits by investing the insurance float - $ from premiums paid by consumers but not yet paid out in claims by the company. If you manage to break-even, you're basically getting free $ to invest. If you make an underwriting profit, it's even better, because you're basically getting paid to invest. It's a beautiful thing.

Of course, it's not secret, and insurance is very competitive, which makes RLI's track record so impressive. They operate in a lot of specialty areas, which gives them a competitive advantage.

RLI is making so much money recently they don't even know what to do with it. In addition to the regular dividend (nothing special, under 1%, although they are a dividend aristocrat, with something like 49 straight years of increases) they routinely pay out a special dividend, much like Costco. Except they do it much more frequently than Costco does.

This one is a bit more expensive, so I'm going to dollar-cost average in. Small amounts, daily.
 
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What a day $MRO getting bought out and $ASTS mooning.
 
Also $MLS almost a $100 a share. When I posted this it was prior to a 30 to 1 split. I am up an absolute shit ton. They have double users in the last year and finally turned a profit last 1/4. The CEO is savvy, and will wait until next earning and then will start trimming my position.
$ML raised revenue guidance and another earnings beat. Added a million customers.
Just trimmed some. The SPAC I owned at 10+ a share before it became $ML and watch it free fall. I bought that fucker down to 1.80 but ended up having a shit load of shares and a lot of capital invested.
It could have been a big L and would have stung if I was wrong, but I believed and it paid off. Going to Sizzler for lunch.
 
I'm still waiting for TSLA to go up back over 200 so I can gtfo

AAPL is likely going over $ 200 very soon

People are shorting United healthcare

My AVGO is just kind of ranging
 
the start of that thread is funny. Remember when so many crypto bros and right wing economists were all saying all the banks were gonna fail
 

A technical issue on Monday caused the A-class shares of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway to appear to be down nearly 100% on the New York Stock Exchange for most of the morning trading period...

There were 49 stocks affected by the issue, according to the CTA. Other notable stocks involved include Chipotle Mexican Grill and Bank of Montreal...

The NYSE said that the problems stemmed from the price-bands published by the Consolidated Tape Association, the organization used by major exchanges to jointly provide real-time stock quotes. The NYSE said at roughly 11:45 a.m. ET that the issues had been resolved and trading was back to normal.
 
Added a slight bit more to WRB in recent days.

Today, added to AMZN at $176.73 and URI at $633.04. And I've still been averaging into RLI, like I mentioned. OXY back down to nearly $60 I see. Gets $57-58 again I'll buy more.
 
DFV looking to become a billionaire <thisgonbegood>
What's so odd about the whole thing is the company involved really is complete shit: Gamestop!

He just posts some memes on Twitter and gets a 250% gain haha.
 
What's so odd about the whole thing is the company involved really is complete shit: Gamestop!

He just posts some memes on Twitter and gets a 250% gain haha.

I'm not sure how I feel about it although I was heavily in the stock during its short squeeze but I'd never go on that rollercoaster again. To me this nonsense is dead lol and I'm surprised after all these years it's still all happening.

Roaring Kitty has created an army of followers and lovers that'll follow him around whatever he does.

On the other hand this MEME style trading and the like must be making Robinhood a truck load of money.
 
Interesting:

Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) said Tuesday it has formed a joint venture with Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BRK.B) (BRK.A) for the deployment of its TerraLithium subsidiary's technology to extract and commercially produce high-purity lithium compounds from Berkshire's geothermal facilities in California.

Occidental (OXY) said the project would demonstrate the feasibility of using its direct lithium extraction technology to process lithium-containing brine into a responsibly sourced supply of high-purity lithium.

Berkshire's (BRK.B) (BRK.A) BHE Renewables unit operates 10 geothermal power plants in California's Imperial Valley that can process 50K gallons per minute of lithium-rich brine to produce 345 MW of clean energy.

Upon successful demonstration, BHE Renewables (BRK.B) (BRK.A) said it plans to build, own, and operate commercial lithium production facilities in the Imperial Valley.

"By leveraging Occidental's expertise in managing and processing brine in our oil and gas and chemicals businesses, combined with BHE Renewables' deep knowledge in geothermal operations, we are uniquely positioned to advance a more sustainable form of lithium production," Occidental (OXY) said.

 
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