Economy stock talk v7, meme stocks go up

[MMAisGod]

No. We're supposed to shake out dumbass money in line with every world market and recognize the idea that we just rush back to normalcy is stupid. The combo makes this extremely justifiable. We won't crash, but this will be a bitch for a lot of companies.

I didn't buy too much into the "Robinhood bros" theory, but there seems to be a lot of weight to it. They are just jumping in buying whatever if it moves a bit. Hertz was the prime example, I read something how an army of Robinhood traders bought it post-bankruptcy pushing the price up to $5, then held bags and sold in the 2s lol. That a large percentage of those who lost were from Robinhood and newer accounts. There might be more influence than we realize from that type of nonsense.

 

[rob mafia]

Nice timing bro, I feel like you did as well as anyone. I did the same back at high 23s so I missed out on the last run. Q2 earnings, 2nd wave, election. All this fake ass movement will unwind shortly unless the reopening happens without glitch. Q2-Q4 earnings will still be shit

i mean, it depends. a lot of companies' q2-q4 should be about the same... or better. travel/entertainment/restaurants/travel - yeah, probably not. online retailers, tech hardware/software, etc - probably killin' it.

 

[asdffdsa]

Nice timing bro, I feel like you did as well as anyone. I did the same back at high 23s so I missed out on the last run. Q2 earnings, 2nd wave, election. All this fake ass movement will unwind shortly unless the reopening happens without glitch. Q2-Q4 earnings will still be shit

Thanks. Yeah I got the same feeling I had right before the initial COVID crash.

 

[brackis1]

I didn't buy too much into the "Robinhood bros" theory, but there seems to be a lot of weight to it. They are just jumping in buying whatever if it moves a bit. Hertz was the prime example, I read something how an army of Robinhood traders bought it post-bankruptcy pushing the price up to $5, then held bags and sold in the 2s lol. That a large percentage of those who lost were from Robinhood and newer accounts. There might be more influence than we realize from that type of nonsense.

I've basically been just ahead of every run and then miss it due to thinking it's stupid.
I was in here calling that Hertz run. It's so fucking stupid and shows what a charade and stuntwork a lot of public commerce has become

 

[BIKES!]

i mean, it depends. a lot of companies' q2-q4 should be about the same... or better. travel/entertainment/restaurants/travel - yeah, probably not. online retailers, tech hardware/software, etc - probably killin' it.

There will be some industries that will continue to perform well as you mention, but the dominos haven't yet fell in the majority of sectors. Specifically, I'm concerned with commercial real estate and soon to be balooning Bad debt across all retail. In many industries, terms were frozen and deferred March 17 and now as the states and businesses reopen the payment plans are starting. Accounts everywhere are working with customer service and credit departments to come up with a path to solvency. Dining and Bars will close permanently, rents go unpaid, past due balances owed to distributors and suppliers will go unpaid.

Even without a second wave, we have yet to see any of the impact of printing money, historic unemployment and the cost of cities and states forcing business to close without acknowledging rent.

 

[rob mafia]

I've basically been just ahead of every run and then miss it due to thinking it's stupid.
I was in here calling that Hertz run. It's so fucking stupid and shows what a charade and stuntwork a lot of public commerce has become

amc was at $6 (under a few times) in jan-feb... with great financials, buybacks announced, and etc.

they were at like $7+ a couple days ago... after they announced they might go through bankrupcy. with no real earnings for q1 and q2 and low projections for q3+

 

[rob mafia]

There will be some industries that will continue to perform well as you mention, but the dominos haven't yet fell in the majority of sectors. Specifically, I'm concerned with commercial real estate and soon to be balooning Bad debt across all retail. In many industries, terms were frozen and deferred March 17 and now as the states and businesses reopen the payment plans are starting. Accounts everywhere are working with customer service and credit departments to come up with a path to solvency. Dining and Bars will close permanently, rents go unpaid, past due balances owed to distributors and suppliers will go unpaid.

Even without a second wave, we have yet to see any of the impact of printing money, historic unemployment and the cost of cities and states forcing business to close without acknowledging rent.

i think you're over-reacting. at least in timeline. the impact of printing shouldn't really be felt for years (and should be somewhat mooted, since all the other central banks seem to be printing just as much, if not more). the unemployment is ~moot, especially with the $600/week bonus. after that runs that, maybe.

dining has somewhat adapted (or a lot have and those that did should be fine) to take-out/delivery, and are more streamlined. some places will be closed permanently, but a lot should be fine-ish. that said, i stay out of those sectors, so whatev.

pretty much all of my actual holdings are tech/tech-adjacent. they'll take hits with the meta, but their overall trends should be decent.

obviously, i sell calls against all my holdings, anyway.

you seem to be more talking about GDP/overall economy problems. not so much stonks.

 

[brackis1]

Looking at MYGN Myriad genetics down 20% on seemingly nothing this morning to huge lows. Thing was up in the 40s before.

lol fuck somehow got stopped out on half this and then it ran 5%
edit: Oh great its up even more lol.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

Just keep buying Tesla everyone

it’s going to 4000

the trade desk is good

Lockheed is good

 

[BIKES!]

i think you're over-reacting. at least in timeline. the impact of printing shouldn't really be felt for years (and should be somewhat mooted, since all the other central banks seem to be printing just as much, if not more). the unemployment is ~moot, especially with the $600/week bonus. after that runs that, maybe.

dining has somewhat adapted (or a lot have and those that did should be fine) to take-out/delivery, and are more streamlined. some places will be closed permanently, but a lot should be fine-ish. that said, i stay out of those sectors, so whatev.

pretty much all of my actual holdings are tech/tech-adjacent. they'll take hits with the meta, but their overall trends should be decent.

obviously, i sell calls against all my holdings, anyway.

you seem to be more talking about GDP/overall economy problems. not so much stonks.

Correct, I'm purely addressing the greater Dow and the mutual funds that hold the majority of 401k dollars. Dining is getting obliterated, the take-out model worked for a few of the cash rich big guys like Chick Fil A and In N out, to a lesser extent other National Chains on lifelines (Chilis, Applebees, etc..), but by and large, food alone doesn't pay the bills. Many Chains won't reopen at all in CA due to the leases, just take my word for it

To my earlier point, rents were deferred for 60 days and back rent and rent is now due as well as $$'s owed to liquor and beer distributors. Also, big companies are exploring walking away from commercial office space leases. So many big companies have adopted cramp open work plans and people are quite frankly concerned with coming back. Also big cities aren't in the best shape at the moment with "protests."

Option trading and sticking to the outlier industries is where the pro's like you and brackis and nutt will live. I'm just focusing on the fundamentals because I was 10-13 years away from retirement prior to shifting my 401k to bonds....

 

[BJ@LW&WW]

Looking at MYGN Myriad genetics down 20% on seemingly nothing this morning to huge lows. Thing was up in the 40s before.

http://www.globenewswire.com/news-r...nomic-Testing-for-Medicare-Beneficiaries.html

perhaps this part? "Palmetto states that there are insufficient data to support coverage of combinatorial tests"
i dont know much about it

 

[rob mafia]

Correct, I'm purely addressing the greater Dow and the mutual funds that hold the majority of 401k dollars. Dining is getting obliterated, the take-out model worked for a few of the cash rich big guys like Chick Fil A and In N out, to a lesser extent other National Chains on lifelines (Chilis, Applebees, etc..), but by and large, food alone doesn't pay the bills. Many Chains won't reopen at all in CA due to the leases, just take my word for it

To my earlier point, rents were deferred for 60 days and back rent and rent is now due as well as $$'s owed to liquor and beer distributors. Also, big companies are exploring walking away from commercial office space leases. So many big companies have adopted cramp open work plans and people are quite frankly concerned with coming back. Also big cities aren't in the best shape at the moment with "protests."

Option trading and sticking to the outlier industries is where the pro's like you and brackis and nutt will live. I'm just focusing on the fundamentals because I was 10-13 years away from retirement prior to shifting my 401k to bonds....

...i mean, the restaurants in my area (i'm not talking about chains) either closed (as in, the owners thought it's a good time to retire) or switched models and appear to be doing ok. commercial real estate is fucked... but i think it's just temporary. everyone's been praising work from home and pretending it's amazing and has high productivity and win-win... these retards don't apparently realize the downsides yet. over time, they'll realize their impact on corporate culture and overall communication/exchange of ideas and it'll swing back around.

unless it's wework. wework should finally have the reckoning they've deserved for years.

 

[rob mafia]

Lockheed is good

i almost bought lockheed so many times and then always missed the window. i wish they'd do a stock split or something to make options plays more liquid. i always want in... and then worry about volume.

 

[BIKES!]

...i mean, the restaurants in my area (i'm not talking about chains) either closed (as in, the owners thought it's a good time to retire) or switched models and appear to be doing ok. commercial real estate is fucked... but i think it's just temporary. everyone's been praising work from home and pretending it's amazing and has high productivity and win-win... these retards don't apparently realize the downsides yet. over time, they'll realize their impact on corporate culture and overall communication/exchange of ideas and it'll swing back around.

unless it's wework. wework should finally have the reckoning they've deserved for years.

Don't get me started on WeWork. That was a recipe for disaster from the start, focusing on the poor credit smaller companies doesn't seem secure; I loved many of their general area layouts (who doesn't like tap beer?). I'm not suggesting the HQ offices are closing but more so the satellite offices throughout the country. Come to think of it... maybe big companies gravitate towards WeWork and not 5-7 year leases. Fuck, who knows.

I agree that working from home has it's downsides but there are plenty of upside. Sure Zoom meetings are nowhere near as productive as live meetings and everyones calendar is flooded by invites to worthless meetings but there are plenty of upsides.

With brick and mortar anchor stores closing left and right we will see entire strip malls suffer. Much of retail is operating on skeleton crews in CA and these next 6 months will determine who survives. Unless the commercial real estate world drops prices, forgives deferred rent, etc... bankruptcies will be the solve. If people don't fly, there will be even a faster race to abandon office space through bankruptcy.

 

[MMAisGod]

-1500 lol wow. Feel kinda bad to be excited about such a drop.

 

[brackis1]

-1500 lol wow. Feel kinda bad to be excited about such a drop.

I'm guessing we settle down 4% and come back a little bit.

 

[BIKES!]

-1500 lol wow. Feel kinda bad to be excited about such a drop.

Given the timing and basis for the drop, tomorrow could be fun too.

 

[SiKnSiN]

Just realized how SPAC heavy I am right now. Basically 70% into three SPACs.

 

[44nutman]

Brutal day. I am only up in DRIP(This one has been running pretty good this week, Probably sell tomorrow) and APT. Should have sold FCEL yesterday, got greedy and want to sell half my shares at 100% gain so I would have free shares. Got to 93% and it took a shit this morning.

 

[brackis1]

Brutal day. I am only up in DRIP(This one has been running pretty good this week, Probably sell tomorrow) and APT. Should have sold FCEL yesterday, got greedy and want to sell half my shares at 100% gain so I would have free shares. Got to 93% and it took a shit this morning.

As we saw with NKLA: pick your preferred numerically pleasing buy/sell point, and go conservative by 5% from that lol.