International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V7

[Vergilius]

Like mentioned in this thread, you really really have to push russians to corner if you want them to go against goverment. Its just how just nation is wired

Last time it really happened was during revolution.

Well, if you want to really get into the historical parallel, 1917 happened due political repression, economic recession and a failing war effort, not too different to what we are seeing today.

...but there is no real organized opposition, no new ideological jet fuel to energize the masses and no serious signs of weakness in Putin's pyramid of power, so I'm not seeing it, unfortunately.

It's sad. Russia has so much potential, but its people has spent hundreds of years being robbed and repressed by whomever happened to be in charge. Hope that will change in my lifetime.

 

[Cole train]

The last time Russia lost these many soldiers must have been in ww2. I'm not sure how long they can hide that but I guess their propaganda is more effective and widespread than most people thought.

Like really last time rus army rose up was in ww1 which led to revolution (other countries armies started to rebel as well due to mindless slaughter but in rus it was spark for revolution)

Conserning this conflict there was more noise and "rising up" during 1st chechen war than this one.

Personally i think its due to most being volunteers in this one and most being conscripts in chechen one.

 

[Cole train]

Well, if you want to really get into the historical parallel, 1917 happened due political repression, economic recession and a failing war effort, not too different to what we are seeing today.

...but there is no real organized opposition, no new ideological jet fuel to energize the masses and no serious signs of weakness in Putin's pyramid of power, so I'm not seeing it, unfortunately.

It's sad. Russia has so much potential, but its people has spent hundreds of years being robbed and repressed by whomever happened to be in charge. Hope that will change in my lifetime.

In 1917 average russian was near starvation with no hope in sight unlike nowadays.

In that situation dying with gun in hand against goverment in hope for better tomorrow might seem better than living in constant battle for survival.Life is hard there nowadays but nothing like 1917

You are correct with last paragraph

To quote legendary rus poster called rusk

"Russia is same as if mohammed ali decided to become crackhead instead of boxer"

 

[SandisLL]

The last time Russia lost this many soldiers must have been in ww2. I'm not sure how long they can hide that but I guess their propaganda is more effective and widespread than most people thought.

Russia's most powerful tool is propagnada and brainwashing.
During last 100 years they had invested xxxxxxxxxxx man hours and insane amount of research and $.

They does have even different propaganda tailored for target audithory: russians aboard....russians in big wealthy cities in russia. russians in villages etc.

+ ofc different versions and excuses & propaganda for westerners.

+ excellence in hybrid war and special operations to discredit their opponents, get support in western circles etc...

__
They are so effective and if bearing in mind that ~ 70% russians in russia never had been in any foreign country + does use mass media only in russian and from russian resources approved by Kremlin....

__
Had died 4 or 40000?
Is USD 10 or 100 or 150 roubles....

It will not make them to go against Kremlin..

__

Actually they did in 1990-1991-1992....
The same even communists.
Because 1982-1992 Russia had been turned into underground economy ruling real life....if you had connections ...
...
Vuala and they managed to bring ppl till soap and sugar & vodka and cigarettes stamps AS right to buy....+ you needed also money + stamp to buy this legally....

 

[SandisLL]

Well, if you want to really get into the historical parallel, 1917 happened due political repression, economic recession and a failing war effort, not too different to what we are seeing today.

...but there is no real organized opposition, no new ideological jet fuel to energize the masses and no serious signs of weakness in Putin's pyramid of power, so I'm not seeing it, unfortunately.

It's sad. Russia has so much potential, but its people has spent hundreds of years being robbed and repressed by whomever happened to be in charge. Hope that will change in my lifetime.

Sadly a lot of dudes in Kremlin are worse for west than Putin and even more crazy than Putin.
Navalny too is....it will be nightmare for west and Putin will look as not dangerous if compare with him...

 

[ferrisjso]

The last time Russia lost this many soldiers must have been in ww2. I'm not sure how long they can hide that but I guess their propaganda is more effective and widespread than most people thought.

USSR lost 27 million people over 12% of their population. This is no way shape or form comparable on either side.

In terms of percentage lost, Serbia in WW1 and Paraguay in the 19th century are the only comps for that and those countries were much much smaller.

 

[SandisLL]

+ disstatisfied with Russia ppl in 1914-1917?
Monarchy and feodal class was cast system....!!!
+ for a reason even a lot of rich ppl and middle class ppl hated all this.

Tzar's army was not worse equipped and wasn't weaker than Germans....

While shitty coordination induced huge losses and it was relatively easy to see...
Like: often delayed and not well coordinated artillery support....
From lads who had tasted this....a lot later had supported Lenin...
For a reason cos idiots deserved to be hated....

+ also corruption...drinking...partying and gambling when casuals were half alive...

& to some areas they even supplied vodka abd forget about bread....
___
Tzar actually had more and more lost real control.
Upper ranks feodals and their circle continued to celebrate something in St Pete like this was 1913 th not 1917 th...

Yup and then....a lot of ppl who were able to support Tzar...just did nothing.
Some joined Lenin's forces.
Some just had relocated from St Pete....

Revolution happened for a reason....deserved reason.

 

[Vergilius]

In 1917 average russian was near starvation with no hope in sight unlike nowadays.

In that situation dying with gun in hand against goverment in hope for better tomorrow might seem better than living in constant battle for survival.Life is hard there nowadays but nothing like 1917

You are correct with last paragraph

To quote legendary rus poster called rusk

"Russia is same as if mohammed ali decided to become crackhead instead of boxer"

I agree with you, but if you want to add a little ray of hope, sometimes more well-off people have staged revolutions and the results have tended to be better... but it's pretty academic, because there is no serious signs that anything of the sort will happen unless Putin suddenly kicks the bucket... and as Sandis says, we can't be sure we actually get someone better than Putin if that happens. A new, Russian leader might also start off quite weak given how domineering Putin is: there is no real obvious successor to hold the country together as he doesn't let anyone else share the limelight. A major civil war in a Russian power vacuum is a nightmare for the entire world.

 

[Cole train]

I agree with you, but if you want to add a little ray of hope, sometimes more well-off people have staged revolutions and the results have tended to be better... but it's pretty academic, because there is no serious signs that anything of the sort will happen unless Putin suddenly kicks the bucket... and as Sandis says, we can't be sure we actually get someone better than Putin if that happens. A new, Russian leader might also start off quite weak given how domineering Putin is: there is no real obvious successor to hold the country together as he doesn't let anyone else share the limelight. A major civil war in a Russian power vacuum is a nightmare for the entire world.

Yea my family always says if putin gets taken out or retires there will only be someone worse.

Russia be russia

I personally expect civil conflict when putin leaves

 

[SandisLL]

Like this...
For example when were these talks about Putin dying...

I had to think ....who they ( United Russia ) will place in his post?

One from very real at least temporary candidate is....really worse than Putin.
Because Putin at least admitted that inflation in Russia does exist and promised to increase pensions...

This dude...will not care does russians have food stamps and bread lines ....or no.
One flowchart: enemies....enemies...iron curtain...total control.
Basically he is living in Cold War...in his mind.
And he...is dude who will hold Putin's key for....until next will be choosed...
maybe even he....his name isn't Shoigu...
He is a bit older than Putin...

+ other stuff is some xx not lesser aggressive dudes than Putin...even more aggressive....

+ Navalny and...yeah...depending from bottle and shape...Medvedev...damn...

 

[aries]

They don't plan quitting on it soon!

Wow

 

[aries]

what are the russian people going to do? No one's going to form a coup. The people of russia are not a concern to Putin and the oligarchs. They will just print out new polls saying he has 130% approval ratings.

Ok, so why even bother trying to convince the if they are so inconsequential? Why go to all that effort, if none of it really matters?

 

[aries]

Wont matter money is too good and everyones a volunteer except for unlucky kids who happen to be serving conscription

Btw mother was in saint pete last week and visited graveyard, lots of soldier graves and there were 2 soldier funerals going on.

Well they aren't stupid. They clearly show the ability to adjust. Probably just convincing people that the nazis are putting up a fiercer resistance than expected.

 

[aries]

Like mentioned in this thread, you really really have to push russians to corner if you want them to go against goverment. Its just how just nation is wired

Last time it really happened was during revolution.

Something I read on Quora, from a Russian citizen, was that the worst socially acceptable thing in Russia was people's terrible cynicism in accepting wrong doing and corruption as just something everyone does. It just that the West are less honest about it.

 

[hitcher]

Yea my family always says if putin gets taken out or retires there will only be someone worse.

Russia be russia

I personally expect civil conflict when putin leaves

Quite likely. At least Chechnya and Dagestan will probably start another war.

 

[Cole train]

Quite likely. At least Chechnya and Dagestan will probably start another war.

Nah

Chechnya atleast is receiving so much protection money that "freedom for caucasus" movement is pretty much dead

 

[SandisLL]

Something I read on Quora, from a Russian citizen, was that the worst socially acceptable thing in Russia was people's terrible cynicism in accepting wrong doing and corruption as just something everyone does. It just that the West are less honest about it.

Well.
In 1980 ies in USSR in not rare cases was norm to gave bribe to plumber in order to make him work normally and use better spare parts.
Bribes to salesperson in grocery and car repair guys...
Cos deficit...demand higher than supply...
Underground market too...
Till currency exchange.
Bribe to get TV...if it was deficit model.
Bribe to TV repair technician to make repair process faster...

Yup.

 

[aries]

Like mentioned in this thread, you really really have to push russians to corner if you want them to go against goverment. Its just how just nation is wired

Last time it really happened was during revolution.

Well.
In 1980 ies in USSR in not rare cases was norm to gave bribe to plumber in order to make him work normally and use better spare parts.
Bribes to salesperson in grocery and car repair guys...
Cos deficit...demand higher than supply...
Underground market too...
Till currency exchange.
Bribe to get TV...if it was deficit model.
Bribe to TV repair technician to make repair process faster...

Yup.

Yeah good point. But I feel that they are like that with moral ambiguity about their leaders. When Putin's $1.4 billion palace was revealed most Russian's didn't really give a shit. (77% of Russian's who watched 'Putin's Palace' said it did not change their opinion of Putin and apparently it was 26% of all Russian's who saw it, so not a small number of people.)

 

[SandisLL]

Well they aren't stupid. They clearly show the ability to adjust. Probably just convincing people that the nazis are putting up a fiercer resistance than expected.

Like this and they does have brilliant level to do brainwashing...

Therefore also different propagandists and posters in their media, journalists etc....

Some are insisting that they are fighting almost vs all NATO.
For different audithory is thing like: armed till teeth by west nazis...
Next level is: there we need to do internal cleaning ( purge ) and deal with internal enemies, spies etc...
Then things will be good...

Other flowcharts too...
Everything is in game for different tastes and they are masters to serve...propaganda...

 

[hitcher]

Nah

Chechnya atleast is receiving so much protection money that "freedom for caucasus" movement is pretty much dead

That money is not necessarily coming from Russia but other Muslim nations.