International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V7

[Andy Capp]

For sure I do.

The map says Russia illegally occupies about 20 % of the Ukraine?

That's a catastrophic failure, no?

What strategic or real-terms value does the Donbas region actually have, once you've cut through the nonsense about Nazis and the idiocy of the 'protecting' Russian ethnic people in the region?

None.

Without Kyiv, Russia's assault on Ukraine is nothing but an exercise in reducing your own military prowess, and gifting the rest of the world massive insight into your ineffectiveness.

I know a lot of people need to assume Russia are doing well because Russia are this massive powerhouse, but they're getting nowhere. What does future occupation of the Donbas look like? More car bombs murdering Russian occupiers; more assassinations; more guerrilla warfare.

Is that victory? No, it's a catastrophic failure.

And what of beyond Kyiv? NATO has expanded to include two more wealthy, well established nations, Finland and Sweden. That's a catastrophic failure.

European countries are committed to spending much more on their military, whereas when Trump called on them to do that, they refused. That's a catastrophic failure.

So tell me; what exactly does it look like when you try to suggest he hasn't failed extensively? Simply the extremely myopic view of a couple of active maps?

Well, in fairness, all he really needs to do (and appears intent on doing once his Blitzkrieg attempt failed utterly) is occupy all the coastal territory and land-lock the rest of Ukraine, forcing Ukraine to pay through the nose to ship their export goods--and receive imports, obviously. It's a potential strangle hold financially.

But that's now. If Ukraine accedes in any way to Russia on this occasion, it will only be a matter of time before the rest of the country goes the way of Crimea and the Donbas. To put it another way, do Russians stop at half a glass of vodka?

Edit: I didn't realize until after I replied how far behind I am ITT.

 

[Andy Capp]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nato-is-no-longer-brain-dead-

"Finland and Sweden joining will more than double Nato’s border with Russia, and both countries have modern, well-equipped militaries."

"This summit will also see Nato move away from the idea of 'tripwire' – deliberately small – forces on its eastern front to a larger presence there. Previously, the aim had been to ensure that any Russian attack would bring it into contact with Nato forces, ensuring that Article 5 would be triggered. But now the aim is to have a strong enough military presence there to actually halt a Russian attack."

"It was only a few years ago that President Emmanuel Macron was decrying Nato as ‘brain dead’. But the alliance now has a clear, strategic purpose again. Yet, ultimately it will need its European members to spend more on defence and bear more of the burden. This is the best way to ensure that the US, with its nuclear umbrella, remains committed to the alliance."

More than double the border with NATO?

Holy shit, Vlad fucked up, huh?

Should he have any lasting success in Ukraine (extremely unlikely), about the only country he could feasibly target next is Moldova. Then that's the end of the road for the demented Warlord.

Fortunately for Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, who have always feared Russian Imperialist expansionism, they're now far, far, far better protected!

OT but this reminds me of how Trump's illegal trade sanctions on Canada forced us to diversify our import/export options. Turned out to be like spring cleaning for us, and he got the change from our couch.

 

[SandisLL]

Some regions already occupied does have...too high economical value.

Maybe for Ukrainians better is not to have their own country, they might live like gypsies and at least will not have any problems with Russia?

IMHO not bad solution....
Just reality....
Country is for rulers, normal life: for you.

With Donbas region occupation alone Ukr might be turned into a coal importer country...
It isn't fun at all.

+ better we should not to pretend; we in europe always knew that western europe and Holy Land thinks that Ukraine should be under russia.
So the same destiny as for irish ppl long ago and...sorry, gypsies does have the same destiny ...cos other reason....
___

 

[hitcher]

Oh I was wrong according to the top 10 polluters by capita.

Qatar — 37.05 per capita
Kuwait — 23.49 per capita
Saudi Arabia — 19.39 per capita
Canada — 16.85 per capita
United States — 15.74 per capita
Germany — 9.7 per capita
China — 7.72 per capita
Spain — 6.09 per capita
France — 5.02 per capita
Thailand — 4.05 per capita

I guess it depends what particular pollution they're using. That seems to be a overall " pollution "

Germanys and China pollution per GDP would likely be much lower if they didn’t have such a strong production base. It would be interesting to see such a stat accounting for manufacturing.

 

[Anewt]

Germanys and China pollution per GDP would likely be much lower if they didn’t have such a strong production base. It would be interesting to see such a stat accounting for manufacturing.

Yeah it's not the best metric for it imo. Not enough detail

 

[SandisLL]

OT but this reminds me of how Trump's illegal trade sanctions on Canada forced us to diversify our import/export options. Turned out to be like spring cleaning for us, and he got the change from our couch.

This.
Donald also had fucked up relationships with Saudi prince and Turkey.
Because he assumed that they are small kids.
And Saudi de facto is OPEC ruler...Death Prince de facto rules OPEC cos Quatar, Kuwait and Emirates fears him damn a lot...

Psycho Donald fu*** ed up relationships with during more than 120 years most trustable trade partner for U.S = Canada.
Fu*** ed up relationships with country U.S had used with a glance since 1941 th... Even for Manhattan project and nuclear R&D science and commodoties for this....

Really he wasn't Reagan.
I don't have any bare thing against reps ....unless crazy pro Kremlin oriented doll Donald. Btw afaik most laughted up U.S president ever in Russia!

Pretty opposite: if we are talking about CCW permits..
I support reps. ....
Not dems but AFIAK Hillary was most crazy stuff ever...
While Bill: no.

Before we had CCW permits...
Enough ppl had been processed even with AKM...yeah...in peacetime and causal civilians.

After this: some cases with idiots died after attack attempt and then...
While in pro russia's souce...even РПГ-7 had been used as ...calculator...

After CCW permits and easy to by pepper spray with 0 paperwork....
area had turned more close to Belgium or NL or Germany.

Some ppl might understand just only things called force, violence, resistance and threat to their own life.

 

[AWilder]

Can the oil embargo even work when countries like India and China could buy Russian oil at lower prices and resell it to US/EU at higher market rates.
https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-is-india-violating-the-eu-oil-embargo/a-62291074

India and china can only process so much crude. I have no idea what their capabilities are but I doubt they can provide for their own countries plus the European continent. Plus there is the issue of shipping and most of the Russian pipelines go west.

 

[Strychnine]

Shit is popping. Huge sparkles!

Wow.

Talk about the great ammo cook-off!

 

[SandisLL]

India and china can only process so much crude. I have no idea what their capabilities are but I doubt they can provide for their own countries plus the European continent. Plus there is the issue of shipping and most of the Russian pipelines go west.

They just technically can't.
If we are talking about gasoline and diesel fuel + lubricants.

Also talks about stuff like " all euro refineries are set to process russian crude oil " is just BS...
Neareast refinery in my location didn't had any problems nor to process Iraq crude nor Venezuela stuff nor Canadian heavy crude.
With one clause: sulfur 4,5% not more and API gravity not less than ~ 10...
Then capacity ~ 63 m bbl / y is ensured....

Ofc cos lesser expenses to process crude oil, WTI and Brent are even more preferable than Russia's crude.
Cos from feedstock quality depends a lot of things: hydro cracking processes they should use and desulfurisation units chains etc things...

Ofc vanadium and Fe content in feedstock etc things matters a lot....

 

[SandisLL]

One from most important things in crude oil processing is sulfur content in crude oil....
Ultra elite grade feedstock does have ~0,06-0,22% sulfur % content and Brent or even WTI usually doesn't meet this.
While as normal crude is considered crude oil with ~ < 1 % surlfur....

Usually feedstock is with 0,06-4,5% sulfur content however might be even till 6% and 6,5% sulfur content.
More = more real expenses for desulfurisation ....+ difficult task to create elite level products....

Next " funny " thing is metals content in crude oil.
Fe is most common while today vanadium etc is stuff that might create a lot of problems...

The same Kaliningrad objastj deposits too had provided better crude than Brent or WTI or Urals...
While small ammounts and now looks that depleted.
Something in sea had remained a little bit.
Stuff was good cos had almost 0 metal add unless Na etc .+ low sulfur %/..

 

[MTT]

 

[PEB]

Ukrainian's President Zelensky an US defense secretary have said Putin lying about taking out the US long range rocket. Color me shocked Putin’s lying lol.

 

[MTT]

From the US Army AWG 2016 Russian New Generation Warfare Handbook page 31

https://info.publicintelligence.net/AWG-RussianNewWarfareHandbook.pdf

 

[SandisLL]

Sadly west was pussy idiots - Russia's friends and Russia's puppets 1992-2021.
They even had afforded to call Poland and Baltic countries as nervous and germans still are dreaming to manage their own defense until they will fill Benilux and U K and France as.. refugees despite they are Russia's best friends on this earth...

LOL.

Sadly traitors from West ( not better than Russia ) didn't had supplied their doll before war and now appeared as untrustable useless traitors and pussies bit***es...

West is pussy bitch.
Nothing more...

Sissy, fearful and pussy bithces....
It isn't even Obama or Clinton..
Not alone to compare with Reagan.
Pussy doll Donald maybe the best solution to deNazify U.S?

 

[MeatheadMike]

I don't think the market will stabilize until this shit show is resolved. But thars just my opinion. Far too easy for the big companies to exploit the situation for profit and go " but but Putin ". Hell governments are doing the same.

Like I said before, the main cause of the high oil prices is the production cuts from the pandemic and rapid rise of demand when everything opened back up, not this situation with Russia... The situation is just the icing on the cake.

It's not likely for oil prices to stay this high indefinitely without something giving in.
As oil supply and demand returns to prepandemic levels, pices will slowly decrease.

The cost of the barrel has fallen 3 weeks straight due to combination of more supply hitting markets, and fears of rescession. Unless another global event affects oil prices, some analysts are saying we may see them stabilize as early as the fall (when seasonal summer demand drops) or if not then, by early 2023.

 

[MeatheadMike]

DW hasn't done a proper investigation into it but it seems quite likely that theres profiteering going on at the expense of the western consumer who are paying higher prices at the pump as an unintended consequence of the sanctions. Unless there is already a system in place that could detect illegal Russian oil, why wouldn't the middlemen not re-sell the oil for a higher profit?

As to your 2nd question, maybe thats when Russia only really begin to hurt from the sanctions. Unless the prices really crater, maybe they can still hum along selling a little below market prices.

It's kind of what I've been saying... People are expecting sanctions to kill them over night, and claim they aren't working if they don't, but in reality they are a long term slow burn.

Russias whole economy is fossil fuel exports, but oil prices won't stay this high forever. Just like any thing else, oil follows the laws of supply and demand, and more supply will slowly trickle into the markets. Sanctions combined with lower oil prices in the future will hurt them bad, if this thing goes on that long.

 

[SandisLL]

It is not only fossil fuel exports.
They still with a glance are keeping active asbest mining permits etc stuff + are wood exporters etc..

 

[Videer]

I bet Lockheed Martin would pay Strelkov for HIMARS lobbying efforts if they could!

 

[SandisLL]

It is like if compare propaganda for spoon feeded lazy babysitted western parasites about just phrase SS alone cos lazy parasites in west are considering their countries as holy and saint occupants and still does have big pride and honour to be for example an an american occupants from occupants nation like russians.
+ lazy and coky nerds like subn "" here...

Waffen SS had lads used like frontline stuff for meat grinder and no one blonde cunt from US is eliglible to judge frontline paratoorpers like stuff like to be judged by useless for normal service even in police .,...degenerates...

 

[SandisLL]

I agree with for example stuff called wheat import and Export ban.
Till end of universe to ban on permanent basis any wheat import and export might be realistic solution..
We aren't stuff like Ukraine and still during 75+ years had produced more than were able to consume....
Nothing special until we hear instructions from Kiev prophets.....