Russia/Ukraine Megathread V6

[Yotsuya]

A paid Russian asset in Congress.

The Rand family voting and lobbying consistently agains budget increases easily outdates the Putin administration. I think it started during the Brezhnev era.

 

[Yotsuya]

A Russian soldier said he will quit the army because there is no point in fighting in Ukraine: report


"A Russian soldier told The Guardian he will quit the army because there is no point in fighting in Ukraine.

The soldier, identified only as Dmitri, is a member of a unit currently stationed in Belgorod, a Russian city close to the border with Ukraine, The Guardian reported.

He was transferred to the city after he and eight other soldiers in his battalion refused to continue fighting in Ukraine. It is unclear where exactly in Ukraine he fought.

"I have served for five years in the army. My contract ends in June," Dmitri told The Guardian. "I will serve my remaining time and then I am out of here."

"I have nothing to be ashamed of. We aren't officially in a state of war, so they could not force me to go," he added.

Dmitri also told The Guardian that he didn't want to continue fighting in Ukraine because he wanted to return to his family alive, rather than "in a casket."

"Many of us simply did not want to go back," he added."
A Russian soldier said he will quit the army because there is no point in fighting in Ukraine: report (msn.com)

Russia already had huge problems recruiting before this war. I think their army will shrink even more for a generation if not longer.

 

[San Marino]

We’ve never seen a country go backwards as quickly as Russia (msn.com)

 

[PEB]

I appreciate people's experiences in the US military but I also worry that this could be used to distort the debate over Ukraine's actions an use of weapons provided by other countries. I never served in the military but feel that what Ukraine is experiences is different then conditions experienced in other wars.

Ukraine could have potentially reduced a considerable amount of destruction to their country by having applied more foreign weapons earlier. Could have also used these defensive an offensive weapons earlier.

A number of former military people claimed that Russia was going to overthrow Ukrainian government within a week. Obviously their previous experience does not automatically mean they have an inside look at how the war was going to play out.

I just wanted to point this out because this is their home they are fighting for an that's their biggest motivation.

 

[Rholk]

I guess russia found out that the t-72(?) isn't amphibious

 

[Anewt]

I appreciate people's experiences in the US military but I also worry that this could be used to distort the debate over Ukraine's actions an use of weapons provided by other countries. I never served in the military but feel that what Ukraine is experiences is different then conditions experienced in other wars.

Ukraine could have potentially reduced a considerable amount of destruction to their country by having applied more foreign weapons earlier. Could have also used these defensive an offensive weapons earlier.

A number of former military people claimed that Russia was going to overthrow Ukrainian government within a week. Obviously their previous experience does not automatically mean they have an inside look at how the war was going to play out.

I just wanted to point this out because this is their home they are fighting for an that's their biggest motivation.

I see your point but that might have escalated the force used by Russia.. Mauripol could have occured to far more cities.

I think a lot of military is taking notes to how this war is playing out. The infantry now with javelins has really changed how war will be waged from now on. ( not just talking Ukraine Russia ( Any war with modern armies )

Why spend millions on a tank when a small group can take them out for thousands of dollars.. not millions.

 

[SandisLL]

Tank? Delending from weapon and where it had been hit...might be destroyed not only with Javelins...
Javelins AFAIK are good because their operators aren't so vulnerable. With drones the same.

For example in 1970 ies USSR had Malytka wire guided missiles. In the end of 1980 ies threy produced even tandem warheads.
Big bonuse was that it was wire guided: impossible to jam.
Big minus: missile is very slow and operator should see target.
Tanks developed most effective tactique against these cheap missiles: when missile had been launched, they opened fire in direction from where these were launched.
Since these are very slow, such tactique was very effective and cheap. Cos operator needs to use stuff like periscope to see missile, even a lot of dust made problems normally guide missile.
Therefore fire had been opened with machine guns and enough time also to use cannon.
[ depending * ]

 

[SandisLL]

Yeah, tanks are very expensive.
1,5-3-5-6,5 m dollars + additonal stuff like ERA etc.

Tank is also vulnerable cos mines.
While mine clearing is deep science and tanks had been constructed better and better each day....

In WW2 partisans sometimes used IEDs without steel.
So no chances with metal detector.
Yeah, manufacrured in factory anti tank mine is more effectivs on paper.
While if there mine is box from wood with TNT or amatol etc, detonator and improvised pressure sensor...
Blast anyway is strong if 15-30 kg TNT will go bahh.
Tank at least will get damaged track and with this...immobile.

 

[hitcher]

I see your point but that might have escalated the force used by Russia.. Mauripol could have occured to far more cities.

I think a lot of military is taking notes to how this war is playing out. The infantry now with javelins has really changed how war will be waged from now on. ( not just talking Ukraine Russia ( Any war with modern armies )

Why spend millions on a tank when a small group can take them out for thousands of dollars.. not millions.

Not to mention cheap drones fucking everything up.

 

[Ayin]

I appreciate people's experiences in the US military but I also worry that this could be used to distort the debate over Ukraine's actions an use of weapons provided by other countries. I never served in the military but feel that what Ukraine is experiences is different then conditions experienced in other wars.

Ukraine could have potentially reduced a considerable amount of destruction to their country by having applied more foreign weapons earlier. Could have also used these defensive an offensive weapons earlier.

A number of former military people claimed that Russia was going to overthrow Ukrainian government within a week. Obviously their previous experience does not automatically mean they have an inside look at how the war was going to play out.

I just wanted to point this out because this is their home they are fighting for an that's their biggest motivation.

I think most expert opinion which believed Russia would quickly take Kiev and topple the country was based partly on Ukrainian projected willingness to resist, but also on the flawed understanding of the readiness and capabilities of Russia’s military.

 

[San Marino]

I just wanted to point this out because this is their home they are fighting for an that's their biggest motivation.

...and this is why Ukraine will win this war, as mentioned before. Their heart and mind are in the fight, Russia and their soldiers are not.
. American colonists beat the British Army, 1781.
. Russia defeats France, 1812.
. Soviets defeat Germany, 1943.
. North Vietnam wins over the United States, 1975.
* On all four conflicts, their country (home) was being invaded.
** US intelligence was wrong about Iraq, Afghanistan, and Russia. They might be wrong about North Korea, China, and Iran.

 

[SandisLL]

I think most expert opinion which believed Russia would quickly take Kiev and topple the country was based partly on Ukrainian projected willingness to resist, but also on the flawed understanding of the readiness and capabilities of Russia’s military.

Well.
They knew that Ukraine is kleptocracy and sadly this is reality. Like Russia.
While looks that they now really attempted to reduce corruption and kleptocracy.

Ofc Kiev is multinational city...
They probably assumed that spies and provocators + money and saboteurs in Kiev will do a lot of job.
Then ofc also sent in diversants and hardcore pros from elite special units.
Maybe even some demonstrations orchestraded in KGB style and there easily even local alcoholics might be used and local hooligans for cheap. If number of brainvashed ppl isn't enough.

Add here Wagner and paratroopers....

Plus Russian forces moving in from Belarus.
Appeared that all this had failed like paper castle.
Appeared than now kleptocracy in Russia is more dominant than in Ukraine.
Appeared that provocators, saboteurs etc worked not well.
Laziness and kleptocracy did huge job, more than ukr weapons on them.....

 

[SandisLL]

In good outcome variant mesh had been created in Kiev, paratroopers took airports, diversants and special units + merchants had been successful.
Gubbermint run away, ppl in panic.
Russian forces smoothly reaches Kiev and....puppet gubbermint in Kiev in 3-4 days installed. City under control.
Population in panic, refugees from ukraine a lot...

 

[San Marino]

I appreciate people's experiences in the US military.

Thanks.

...but feel that what Ukraine is experiences is different then conditions experienced in other wars.

Wars are all the same.

Ukraine could have potentially reduced a considerable amount of destruction to their country by having applied more foreign weapons earlier.

They didn't have those weapons in the beginning. Russia had to invade to get the whole thing started.
I think Ukraine will win - has won. It is just a matter of killing Russians and pushing Russia back. Putin gave up on his May 9th speech. No declaration of war or full mobilization.

 

[SandisLL]

If about Afganistan...it is hell. Place where you should not invade.
To take Cabul always was easy. During....xxx years in history.
Then they just will milk you and you will support city and troops by using very expensive logistic for supplies.
Congratulations. In peacetime is cheaper to keep 3 soldiers in Moscow than 1 in Cabul. It is hell even without war.

Then to control all country?
It is impossible to inspect millions of caves and all this stuff... While for them it is home environment like for you your flat.
They does know with a glance how to milk occupiers in Cabul till...dear God help... Ofc also with no problems might hide in basements and caves for weeks...
Soviets had this 10 years in row to taste...
Before this...other occupiers had tasted the same: western, eastern, from south too.
It is hole to punish any invaders.

 

[Anewt]

I think most expert opinion which believed Russia would quickly take Kiev and topple the country was based partly on Ukrainian projected willingness to resist, but also on the flawed understanding of the readiness and capabilities of Russia’s military.

I've always leant with the experts who believed Kiev wasn't the main goal. The east ( donbas ) and Crimea being joined ( south of Ukraine ) still to me seem like the goal. Always have. Many disagree tho. That's the glory of opinions

 

[PEB]

Thanks.

Wars are all the same.

They didn't have those weapons in the beginning. Russia had to invade to get the whole thing started.
I think Ukraine will win - has won. It is just a matter of killing Russians and pushing Russia back. Putin gave up on his May 9th speech. No declaration of war or full mobilization.

I appreciate your comment but not all wars are the same history has proven that fact. 1. Soldiers have to believe in the mission objectives. 2. the makeup of the civilian population "Do they support the overthrow of the leadership "Hitler was horrible to many of his civilian population intentionally drowning them by the thousands in a subway for example and farmers land being destroyed intentionally. " These are just the examples my father had personal experiences with German's offered up where German soldiers where located while the war was going on not a ton of support by many Germans. The resistance to German war was strong by many Germans". 3.Technology what level of technology is one using in their war how well is it being used and the training to use it on the ground. I understand the point your making but there are a number of reasons why one goes into war and what are their objectives and de-nazifing is unbelievable objective and how many Russians actually believe these statements. War on the ground may take different shapes when on the ground by the fact you're fighting for your freedom and you support your President objectives. World domination is hardly one that will sell well to the public.

 

[SandisLL]

I've always leant with the experts who believed Kiev wasn't the main goal. The east ( donbas ) and Crimea being joined ( south of Ukraine ) still to me seem like the goal. Always have. Many disagree tho. That's the glory of opinions

If they were capable to make gubbermint leave country....they now had all Ukraine under their puppets and now had finished also deNazification process in Moldova....

 

[SandisLL]

Experts are....idiots or....people who doesn't express their opinions for mainstream public.
We all know " experts " work in financial field 2005-2009.
And ....outcome.

 

[Anewt]

If they were capable to make gubbermint leave country....they now had all Ukraine under their puppets and now had finished also deNazification process in Moldova....

Oh Don't get me wrong. If Ukraine had faltered and created openings they would have taken it. I just don't think it was ever particularly expected.