Russia/Ukraine Megathread V6

[Rational Poster]

If you have to ask, you are entirely too stupid. Ask your mom for help.

Not the entire country. Russians have not hit the Ukrainian rail system up to now because they were planning to use it. They have now given up on that idea and will begin to blow rail lines leading to the Eastern Ukraine front. There are only 3 major lines leading to Eastern Ukraine. You don't move a M777 howitzer piece around like you do a FGM-148 Javelin.

Russia cannot exert any control past 100km over the border. It's weird how you think Ukrainians can't move heavy equipment around territory they control. Russian forces are getting pushed over the border near Kharkiv as we speak.

Ukranians stole hundreds of abandon armored vehicles right from under the Russian's noses for weeks now. Moving some artillery around territory they control is certainly something they're capable of.

They can just tow them with trucks or use railways that still haven't even been interdicted despite your apparent desire for them to be interdicted.

 

[SandisLL]

If you have to ask, you are entirely too stupid. Ask your mom for help.

Not the entire country. Russians have not hit the Ukrainian rail system up to now because they were planning to use it. They have now given up on that idea and will begin to blow rail lines leading to the Eastern Ukraine front. There are only 3 major lines leading to Eastern Ukraine. You don't move a M777 howitzer piece around like you do a FGM-148 Javelin.

You are very smart. It makes me fun.
You maybe imagine that railroad train with 20-40-60 trucks will be ordered to move 5-18 metric ton equipment.

Ukr most likely does knows about railroad and why Belarus partisans were so good against Hitler.

 

[Denter]

Russia cannot exert any control past 100km over the border. It's weird how you think Ukrainians can't move heavy equipment around territory they control. They're getting pushed over the border near Kharkiv as we speak.

Ukranians stole hundreds of abandon armored vehicles right from under the Russian's noses for weeks now. Moving some artillery around territory they control is certainly something they're capable of.

There was a great article I linked before the war (one reason I believed it would not happen) which analyzed Russian logistics and came to the exact same conclusion you have, namely that more than 90 miles from their railhead, Russia's army simply can't operate. They don't have the logistic capabilities to do it if there is any serious resistance. https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

Longish read but worth it.

 

[Deleted member 585708]

I don't think NATO will abide by that. It would be gaming the system by Putin. I really hope they don't play by the rules if that occurs. That would just make them a bunch of mugs.

If they don't want a direct confrontation with Russia they could occupy the rest of Finland with NATO troops and surround the trouble spot to contain it. I don't see any way for Putin to prevent this from happening short of nukes. There is a going to be a rapid scrabble to get Finland into NATO whilst Russia are still tied up in Ukraine. Putin has fucked up big time.

They'll move some weaponry to the Finland border, but whether they are able to actually do anything is another matter.

They've already said they will 'retaliate', but an invasion of Finland is off the cards.

 

[Deleted member 585708]

Yup diplomacy is over

I expect worst case scenario is small border conflict to block nato application, full assault not possible without mobilization, heavy cyber warfare incoming though.

Then again i said rus wont invade ukr but here we are so wtf do i know lol.

One.thing that worries me and border guys actually is that russia might try to pull what belarus did to poland and use refugees as weapon and flood us with them aka hyprid warfare.

There is zero readiness for that stuff here

It took a long time before they actually invaded Ukraine.

They're not just going to drive over the Finnish border, but they might start amassing whatever they can amass at the border for now.

It was silly of all of us to reject the idea of Russia invading Ukraine, but that's a different kettle of fish now.

 

[KnightTemplar]

There was a great article I linked before the war (one reason I believed it would not happen) which analyzed Russian logistics and came to the exact same conclusion you have, namely that more than 90 miles from their railhead, Russia's army simply can't operate. They don't have the logistic capabilities to do it if there is any serious resistance. https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

Longish read but worth it.

Logistics is one of the most unglamorous jobs in the military. And one of the most essential. It doesn't matter how tough and well trained your soldiers are, or how advanced your equipment. If you can't keep them supplied with fuel, ammo, medical treatment and food, you're going to lose the war.

I've heard it said that during the Cold War, the British Army was split almost 50/50 between, "Teeth and Tail". So for every infantry soldier, tank crewman etc, there were the same number working to keep the Bullets, Beans and Bandages flowing. By contrast, the Soviet Army of the same period was around 80% fighting troops. with only 20% dedicated towards logistics. This meant Ivan could mount an absolutely massive offensive and steamroller resistance in the first stages of a conflict. But unless they could totally destroy the enemy very quickly, they would gas.

 

[SandisLL]

Dunno.
We irl have gameplan that they might do internal provocations and everything from Finland/Norway till at least Slovakia and this is real chances.
Germany and Hungary are " trustable " NATO partners and EU members too. God help me deal with " friends " and then you will be able to help me deal with enemies...

 

[method115]

Putin has not declared war in Ukraine and has not started a full mobilization. Without additional troops Russia is bound to lose in Ukraine.

I want to say it's not true but I never thought Russia would invade to begin with so what do I know.

 

[Videer]

If you have to ask, you are entirely too stupid. Ask your mom for help.

Not the entire country. Russians have not hit the Ukrainian rail system up to now because they were planning to use it. They have now given up on that idea and will begin to blow rail lines leading to the Eastern Ukraine front. There are only 3 major lines leading to Eastern Ukraine. You don't move a M777 howitzer piece around like you do a FGM-148 Javelin.

As expected, you got nothing. They could hinder transporting equipment to the front slightly, which they have done, with very limited success. But to destroy entire rail transport capability? lol

 

[Bald1]

Putin appears committed to long-lasting war, as Ukraine also digs in (msn.com)
"Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said Tuesday that Putin was ready for a 'prolonged conflict' in Ukraine that would stretch well beyond the eastern Donbas region, where Russia’s advances have stalled in recent weeks."

* Not sure how Russia is going to keep this war going without a full mobilization.

I'm starting to think this is as mobilized as Russia can get. They might have more manpower, but would have to take an Uber to Ukraine as their military seems to be smoke and mirrors as it's been robbed blind.

 

[Strychnine]

 

[Strychnine]

Meet "Bunny" the tank. Those white circles around the barrel are "kill rings". Those are the most I've ever seen on a tank.

Reporter to Ukrainian female soldier after hearing her talk about the Russian atrocities.

Reporter - "Are you afraid of being raped?"



Soldier - "I'm afraid of not being useful for my country."

 

[Denter]

Logistics is one of the most unglamorous jobs in the military. And one of the most essential. It doesn't matter how tough and well trained your soldiers are, or how advanced your equipment. If you can't keep them supplied with fuel, ammo, medical treatment and food, you're going to lose the war.

I've heard it said that during the Cold War, the British Army was split almost 50/50 between, "Teeth and Tail". So for every infantry soldier, tank crewman etc, there were the same number working to keep the Bullets, Beans and Bandages flowing. By contrast, the Soviet Army of the same period was around 80% fighting troops. with only 20% dedicated towards logistics. This meant Ivan could mount an absolutely massive offensive and steamroller resistance in the first stages of a conflict. But unless they could totally destroy the enemy very quickly, they would gas.

Yeah good post. Also, WW2!

 

[Rod1]

You don't move a M777 howitzer piece around like you do a FGM-148 Javelin.

The M777 was designed to be towed by military vehicles man, do you honestly believe they can't take it through regular roads? a M777 can go anywhere a Humvee can.

 

[Videer]

Crossing Siverskyi Donets went wrong even more horribly than initially thought.

 

[SandisLL]

As expected, you got nothing. They could hinder transporting equipment to the front slightly, which they have done, with very limited success. But to destroy entire rail transport capability? lol

To destroy railroad is relatively easily: location is well known, also railroads are very vulnerable to unarmed sabotages.
WW2 proved this: Hitler was forced to keep relatively huge forces in Belarus and some parts of Ukraine and Baltic countries just in order to ensure that maybe railroad will work.

Fe after some night when they get bridge damaged in one area, railroad demonted in some other place and echelon impacted by IEDs in another area....

Railroad is vulnerable thing.

 

[Rational Poster]

I'm starting to think this is as mobilized as Russia can get. They might have more manpower, but would have to take an Uber to Ukraine as their military seems to be smoke and mirrors as it's been robbed blind.

They have been using the best equipment they have available and even that was in rough shape before Ukraine started picking it apart.

I imagine their reserve equipment is in even worse shape and horribly dated. Their reserve system in general is poor. They don't maintain training like US reservists. It would just be a lot more green troops and equipped even more poorly.

Their airborne troops that were supposedly the best of the best, deployed outside Kyiv at the start of the invasion with some of them not even having rifle optics.

 

[Videer]

To destroy railroad is relatively easily: location is well known, also railroads are very vulnerable to unarmed sabotages.
WW2 proved this: Hitler was forced to keep relatively huge forces in Belarus and some parts of Ukraine and Baltic countries just in order to ensure that maybe railroad will work.

Fe after some night when they get bridge damaged in one area, railroad demonted in some other place and echelon impacted by IEDs in another area....

Railroad is vulnerable thing.

If you have a relatively large partisan movement sure. Does such exist in Ukraine? There are no indication that it does.

 

[KnightTemplar]

Yeah good post. Also, WW2!

Even Stalin himself admitted that without Lend Lease, and geniuses like Turing and the rest of Bletchley Park breaking Enigma and producing Ultra Grade Intelligence, the War could not have been won.

"The War was won with British brains, American steel and Russian blood".

 

[Rod1]

Even Stalin himself admitted that without Lend Lease, and geniuses like Turing and the rest of Bletchley Park breaking Enigma and producing Ultra Grade Intelligence, the War could not have been won.

"The War was won with British brains, American steel and Russian blood".

Yeah i love how these Russians beat the Nazis crew seems to forget how the Nazis outright massacred Russians in the early stages of the war and were only defeated through attrition as Russia was being supplied by the West.