Russia/Ukraine Megathread V6

[Deleted member 585708]

He is beyond biased, he doesn’t even believe that America is a democracy. And the Ukrainian invasion had a lot of factors going into it, European disunity probably had much, much, much more to factor in than a divided US and the fact that nobody expected much Ukrainian resistance.

He’s a guy living on permanent TDS mode and FWIW, I don’t believe I have ever used the term TDS on here or ever accused anyone of having it but he’s it. But if the shoe fits…

Pretty funny if true, how badly Putin miscalculated Europe.

The countries he probably expected to side with Russia or remain impartial didn't have the leverage to do so.

Turkey, for example, while not supplying Ukraine with arms or even sanctioning Russia, have been steadfastly opposed to the invasion.

The best Erdogan has been able to do is position himself as a potential mediator, knowing full well it's more likely to be Israel.

What did Putin actually think the response would be?

 

[Rational Poster]

Pretty funny if true, how badly Putin miscalculated Europe.

The countries he probably expected to side with Russia or remain impartial didn't have the leverage to do so.

Turkey, for example, while not supplying Ukraine with arms or even sanctioning Russia, have been steadfastly opposed to the invasion.

The best Erdogan has been able to do is position himself as a potential mediator, knowing full well it's more likely to be Israel.

What did Putin actually think the response would be?

Well, it seems like they thought it would be over faster than the world could respond.

 

[Deleted member 585708]

Well, it seems like they thought it would be over faster than the world could respond.

There shouldn't be a politician, leader, statesman or employee anywhere that shouldn't lose their job after a fuck up like this.

Too bad Putin is going to make it happen over his dead body, most likely literally.

 

[Captain Herb]

He is beyond biased, he doesn’t even believe that America is a democracy. And the Ukrainian invasion had a lot of factors going into it, European disunity probably had much, much, much more to factor in than a divided US and the fact that nobody expected much Ukrainian resistance.

He’s a guy living on permanent TDS mode and FWIW, I don’t believe I have ever used the term TDS on here or ever accused anyone of having it but he’s it. But if the shoe fits…

Putin has been pretty focused on the US for a number of years now, and not in a good way. He sees us as his most pre-eminent threat. I'm sure that a lot of what he does has a lot to do with us. Not to completely discount Europe, but he most likely thought he had them over a barrel. No pun intended.

 

[PEB]

Biden in Poland today telling troops they will see what conditions are like when they are in Ukraine. Whitehouse press has to come out right after to correct him. Absolutely embarassing. Just let this senile retard walk around and look and sound weak and feeble, just have his white house press team come out and basically confirm he is demented and doesn't know what he is saying.

Just like with saying they knew the sanctions won't work after saying they will for over a month. What a clown

He means after the war all things point to a deal close in the works over donbas region. Russian command atated the primary objective is complete an looking at securing Donbas. It sounds like they are seeking to end this war an Biden let it slip. Russia sent Priests for the first time into the conflict zone seeming to indicate the conflict is moving into a new phase.

Edit: At least he had the guts to travel to Poland an meet the soldiers 20 miles from the boarder. How many trips did Putin make yeah that's right he doesn't care about his troops. Lol

 

[Yehudim]

Pretty funny if true, how badly Putin miscalculated Europe.

The countries he probably expected to side with Russia or remain impartial didn't have the leverage to do so.

Turkey, for example, while not supplying Ukraine with arms or even sanctioning Russia, have been steadfastly opposed to the invasion.

The best Erdogan has been able to do is position himself as a potential mediator, knowing full well it's more likely to be Israel.

What did Putin actually think the response would be?

He expected Germany to bow down because they are dependent on Russian energy

 

[mkess101]

He expected Germany to bow down because they are dependent on Russian energy

And they responded by upping their military budget by a bajillion percent and actually kicking in a bunch of $ to the NATO pot LOL.

 

[Deleted member 585708]

He expected Germany to bow down because they are dependent on Russian energy

Yeah I think you're probably right.

The concern now is that he's got everything so horribly wrong, he martyrs the Donbas region.

 

[Bald1]

Pretty funny if true, how badly Putin miscalculated Europe.

The countries he probably expected to side with Russia or remain impartial didn't have the leverage to do so.

Turkey, for example, while not supplying Ukraine with arms or even sanctioning Russia, have been steadfastly opposed to the invasion.

The best Erdogan has been able to do is position himself as a potential mediator, knowing full well it's more likely to be Israel.

What did Putin actually think the response would be?

No doubt. Did he forget that there's still hundreds of millions of Euros who remember the Soviet Union and many millions of those lived under its boot? Miscalculation indeed. I think this chapter of history will be titled WTF Putin?

 

[Yehudim]

Yeah I think you're probably right.

The concern now is that he's got everything so horribly wrong, he martyrs the Donbas region.

Ukraine should let go of Donbas and let them live under extreme sanctions

 

[Yehudim]

No doubt. Did he forget that there's still hundreds of millions of Euros who remember the Soviet Union and many millions of those lived under its boot? Miscalculation indeed. I think this chapter of history will be titled WTF Putin?

Nobody expected this to turn out the way it did.

The problem was that not enough people remembered the Soviet era, as is evident by the complete dependence on Russian energy and letting their militaries crumble.

Let’s not rewrite history, Poland seemed to be the only one that took Russia seriously. Hungary, or at least Orban, seemed to fall for the conservatard “based Russia” line of thinking.

 

[Rational Poster]

He expected Germany to bow down because they are dependent on Russian energy

No one is really dependent on Russian energy at this point except Russia and maybe a few of their closer satellites.

EU purchased Russian oil/gas because it was convenient and they saved on logistics costs doing it. Russia was seemingly normal participant of the global economy and it made sense at the time.

EU has always been fully capable of getting gas from elsewhere.

It doesn't make sense anymore. EU has access to the largest markets on earth and Russia doesn't.

I would think you could fairly argue that Russia needs EU as a buyer more than EU needs Russia as a salesman... especially now.

I seriously doubt there will be enough buyers for Russia to make up from the shortfall of EU seeking other sources. Once those relationships are made they aren't going to come back for a long time.

 

[M3t4tr0n]

I wonder how many chuds are devastated about their Putin man crush being tainted by his weakness being revealed. And they thought Biden was weak.

 

[Bald1]

Nobody expected this to turn out the way it did.

The problem was that not enough people remembered the Soviet era, as is evident by the complete dependence on Russian energy and letting their militaries crumble.

Let’s not rewrite history, Poland seemed to be the only one that took Russia seriously. Hungary, or at least Orban, seemed to fall for the conservatard “based Russia” line of thinking.

Orbán is kissing all the wrong asses, that's for sure.

As for forgetting the Soviet era, especially as it comes to Germany? Merkel, the East German forgot all sorts of lessons. From who helped her people cross to the west to who's regime she was born under. She's a typical politician who places expediency above principals and loyalties.

Poland has been fucked by most every European power so it's no surprise they're thinking ahead and about eventualities. Good for them.

 

[idrankyourbeer]

You really focusing on those Ukrainians farmers sir lol

they're doing gods work!

 

[The Diplomat]

they're doing gods work!

The UFA (Ukrainian Farmer's Army) is strong and proud. Their 32nd Tractor brigade leaves no tank behind.

 

[Octavian]

Pretty funny if true, how badly Putin miscalculated Europe.

The countries he probably expected to side with Russia or remain impartial didn't have the leverage to do so.

Turkey, for example, while not supplying Ukraine with arms or even sanctioning Russia, have been steadfastly opposed to the invasion.

The best Erdogan has been able to do is position himself as a potential mediator, knowing full well it's more likely to be Israel.

What did Putin actually think the response would be?

Turkey supplies/sells drones to Ukraine. They've been immensley helpful from what I've read.

 

[Octavian]

No one is really dependent on Russian energy at this point except Russia and maybe a few of their closer satellites.

EU purchased Russian oil/gas because it was convenient and they saved on logistics costs doing it. Russia was seemingly normal participant of the global economy and it made sense at the time.

EU has always been fully capable of getting gas from elsewhere.

It doesn't make sense anymore. EU has access to the largest markets on earth and Russia doesn't.

I would think you could fairly argue that Russia needs EU as a buyer more than EU needs Russia as a salesman... especially now.

I seriously doubt there will be enough buyers for Russia to make up from the shortfall of EU seeking other sources. Once those relationships are made they aren't going to come back for a long time.

Yeah, for all the fuss about Russian energy, we're approaching the summer. Germany gets about 30% of its nat gas from Russia but also a good amount from Norway and Netherlands - can the US, those two nations and a few other non-OPEC producers not just up production and refining?

They should legitimately consider re-commissioning nuclear plants that could still be operated and brokering energy deals with Venezuela (as wild as that sounds). Their problems is they don't have a terminal to receive and process nat gas from what I've read. Either way, this is not a problem that can't be overcome.

Ultimately, what Putin is doing is accelerating Europe's movement away from Russian energy dependence and unifying these nations against Russia.

 

[idrankyourbeer]

wtf?

 

[nostradumbass]

Gotta wonder if Putin genuinely didn't know half their crap didn't work. Hard to imagine planning to invade a pretty big country and not even checking on whether your shit works.

Not sure if it's already posted ITT, but they're trying to change the currency over to ruble in Kherson starting next week, then switch the TV etc to Russian TV.

Why Putin got it so wrong:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/24/putin-misjudged-west-ukraine-timothy-snyder/


Why did Putin get this so wrong? For an answer, I reached out to Timothy Snyder, who has written numerous books about Russia, Ukraine and the region. An edited and condensed version of our exchange follows.

Greg Sargent: What is it about Putin’s way of seeing the world, and his understanding of his own mythologies, that made it inevitable that he’d underestimate the Western response?

Timothy Snyder: For me the most revealing text here is the victory declaration, which the Russian press agency accidentally published on Feb. 26. What they say is that the West just basically needed one more push to fall into total disarray.

If you watch Jan. 6 clips over and over again, you can get that impression. The Russians really have been fixated on Jan. 6.


They thought a successful military operation in Ukraine would be that nudge: We’d feel helpless, we’d fall into conflict, it would help [Donald] Trump in the U.S., it would help populists around the world.


Sargent: When you say Russia has been making a lot of Jan. 6 — what do they read into it?


Snyder: Number one, they use it to mock us by saying, “These are just peaceful protesters.” Number two, they use it for one of their favorite arguments, which is that democracy is a joke everywhere.

But the deeper point is that Trump’s attempt to overthrow the election on Jan. 6 made the American system look fragile. They think, “One more Trump and the Americans are done.” In invading Ukraine, they think they’re putting huge pressure on the Biden administration. They’re going to make Biden look weak.


That probably was their deep fantasy about the West: Successful military occupation in Ukraine; the Biden administration is totally impotent; we humiliate them; Trump comes back; this is a big strategic victory for us.

...

Putin invaded Ukraine to help Drumpf and "muh January 6". Thanks for the hot take, Timothy Snyder.