International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V13

[Bacco]

Zelensky said: "The scariest thing is that part of the world got used to the war in Ukraine."

He's right

Ukraine is not getting out of this unless USA boost their support, instead i think they're gradually sliding toward soften the sense of emergency, and sadly Israel situation is giving them a big fat excuse for that

My impression is that the need of avoid be accused of escalation prevent them to drop truly game-changer stuff, and the half support keep situation in a semi stalemate (or slow progress) that in the long run bleed much more money, this would be bad because would mean they will look for a way to get out of it regardless of outcome

 

[SandisLL]

Next beauty sad idiotism is to be happy with Poland's elections results.
Conservatives in Poland ofc had reminded Ukrainians about nice Mr Bandera ( who wasn't Nazi but hated poles and Slovaks a lot ) and other beauties.

Still they had generously supplied Ukr with military equipment and tools and ammo and usually delivered before talks in media had started about next package ....
Poland was first country provided Ukr for free with self propelled howitzers and main battle tanks before announcement in mass media, also had provided modern MANPADS in March 2022 th.

In respect Ukraine is allowing to spread lies about Poland like they doesn't allow grain transit etc.

Also some Ukrainians were enough smart to call donated by ordinary poles jeep as Banderomobile.
Damn.

 

[SandisLL]

He's right

Ukraine is not getting out of this unless USA boost their support, instead i think they're gradually sliding toward soften the sense of emergency, and sadly Israel situation is giving them a big fat excuse for that

My impression is that the need of avoid be accused of escalation prevent them to drop truly game-changer stuff, and the half support keep situation in a semi stalemate (or slow progress) that in the long run bleed much more money, this would be bad because would mean they will look for a way to get out of it regardless of outcome

Approx like this. Putin knew that nor EU nor NATO really wanted for Ukr as member. Pretty opposite, while they allowed Zelensky administration to talk loud talks despite were reluctant even to sell any heavy weapons etc....not alone to donate anything like this. Zelensky kept to dream.

 

[SandisLL]

Now there are political things. Putin wants to achieve physical control in all areas he had annexed on paper and to press Ukr to sign everything. Like to recognize annexed areas as part of Russian Federation and this will have outcome that sanctions on Russia will be OFF....
Also ofc not just this, Kremlin will do all the best in their abilities regardless from expenses to prevent Moldova and Ukraine to join EU not alone NATO.

Basic stuff: in best case till next war Ukr should be neutral de militarized joke resin.

 

[Blayt7hh]

Russia will succeed in Ukraine unless American support continues, warns US defence secretary – as it happened


Lloyd Austin ‘guarantees Putin will be successful’ if US support for Kyiv ends during Senate hearing on Joe Biden’s request for funding. This live blog is closed

The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has said that Russia would be successful in Ukraine unless the US’s support for Kyiv continued, Reuters reports.

“I can guarantee that without our support Putin will be successful,” Austin said during a Senate hearing on President Joe Biden’s request for $106bn to fund plans for Ukraine, Israel and American border security.

“If we pull the rug out from under them now, Putin will only get stronger and he will be successful in doing what he wants to do,” Austin added, sitting next to US secretary of state, Antony Blinken.

Mitch McConnell has offered a strong endorsement of the White House’s $106bn aid proposal to Israel and Ukraine, saying he and the president were essentially “in the same place” on the issue.

McConnell, the powerful Republican leader in the Senate, has rebuffed some of his GOP colleagues in the Senate who have called for a package separating assistance for the two countries, saying it would be “a mistake”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...ssia-bulks-up-forces-around-bakhmut-says-kyiv

Yeah. I saw estimation that as it stands Ukraine has about a solid year left of supplies before it becomes a critical problem with Russia being able to carry in at this current rate until 2025 before they start seeing majors shortages

 

[PEB]

 

[PEB]

Yeah. I saw estimation that as it stands Ukraine has about a solid year left of supplies before it becomes a critical problem with Russia being able to carry in at this current rate until 2025 before they start seeing majors shortages

The other is the Pentagon not a fan of the current Congressional situation and had already done a number of things to help continue Ukrainian weapon supplies. These are not taking ether side just realizes the need to secure Europe security avoids US military larger involvement.

 

[SandisLL]

To secure for example Belgium?
Their ground forces doesn't have air defense despite they had ordered F-35 .....at least should have some MANPADS and autocannons as bare minimum....
Old equipment accumulating spiders nets in warehouses basements, ground forces in condition that might be easily steamrolled by some Estonia without problems.
While navy is more or less normal .....

Like this and Belgium is lethargic helix after Cold War had ended.

 

[SandisLL]

Ukraine had conducted attack on ammo depots in Crimea.
At least 1 is blown up ....
They had used approx 30 drones and 8 missiles ( Neptune, SS and ATACMS ). Some drones and ATCMS looks that managed to hit target ...
I suspect that it is ATACMS with unitary warhead...i.e 300 km range stuff IF rumours are reality.

 

[SandisLL]

Russia is increasing to use AWAC type aircraft with powerful radar in order to monitor possible cruise missiles launches etc ..

 

[LeonardoBjj]

Yeah. I saw estimation that as it stands Ukraine has about a solid year left of supplies before it becomes a critical problem with Russia being able to carry in at this current rate until 2025 before they start seeing majors shortages

Ukraine official says it can't properly use its Western kit because it has so few soldiers left, report says

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukr...eapons-due-to-soldier-shortage-report-2023-10

 

[PEB]

Ukraine official says it can't properly use its Western kit because it has so few soldiers left, report says

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukr...eapons-due-to-soldier-shortage-report-2023-10

Business insider is a completely unreliable source no one with actual connection with anyone in the Ukrainian defense command an nether does Time.

 

[SandisLL]

The real stuff for Ukr is that Ukr definitely will lost this war.
And heavily and this will be just rest period till next war.
Biden should cease to use these bunches of small packages and activate lend lease, while I don't know will Zelensky agree with such solution.....

 

[SandisLL]

Biden does have 2 options in reality.
1. To activate lend lease.
2. ND option, more difficult to do: Biden might veto aid package for Israel and with this to pressure lawmakers opt to push this big package where Israel is together with Ukraine. Anyway Iran is Russia's partner and friend, so there a lot of common sense to have both packages in one project.

 

[Strychnine]

i dont know what 30 stones is, but i'm guessing it's a fatty?

30 Stone = 420lbs or 190Kg

Now I want to test myself against the immovable object.

 

[Strychnine]

 

[GhostZ06]

 

[Bacco]

Approx like this. Putin knew that nor EU nor NATO really wanted for Ukr as member. Pretty opposite, while they allowed Zelensky administration to talk loud talks despite were reluctant even to sell any heavy weapons etc....not alone to donate anything like this. Zelensky kept to dream.

I think EU would be problematic, mostly because on militar level EU is basically non-existant and sure af the union lack the structure to become suddently a thing and protect Ukraine from Russia... do EU will like get one more piece, but only on peace-time, wich is something that seem far away

NATO (Usa) would surely love get Ukraine similar way they love own Turkey, but seems clear is'nt willing to gamble big on it, so it's all about gift tools within escalation line and hope somehow Ukranians pull a miracle, or at least win enough reach a compromise that put a stop to Russia's ambitions in the area

Or they hope russians will quit at some point because war being an economic disaster, but that would ignore how much Putin on personal level needs to turn it somehow in a win

 

[SandisLL]

I think EU would be problematic, mostly because on militar level EU is basically non-existant and sure af the union lack the structure to become suddently a thing and protect Ukraine from Russia... do EU will like get one more piece, but only on peace-time, wich is something that seem far away

NATO (Usa) would surely love get Ukraine similar way they love own Turkey, but seems clear is'nt willing to gamble big on it, so it's all about gift tools within escalation line and hope somehow Ukranians pull a miracle, or at least win enough reach a compromise that put a stop to Russia's ambitions in the area

Or they hope russians will quit at some point because war being an economic disaster, but that would ignore how much Putin on personal level needs to turn it somehow in a win

For EU Ukraine is big burden.
First thing that they does have de facto ground border with terrorists controlled area in Moldova.
Next shit all this super huge crime and kleptocracy level.
Border disputes with Russia.

Additionally Ukraine wants to get from EU damn a lot of money in form of grants and guaranteed by other countries loans....

With this is not enough: EU agricultural subsidies are paid according to land size etc criteria so Ukraine might demand more money than Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Czech Republic plus Hungary...
It is damn huge money.

Infrastructure funding....dear Lord even to think about money Ukr is dreaming to get not only as loans, also as grants from EU taxpayers pockets.

Plus IF Ukr will be in EU, due to bunch of obstacles their export production will be more expensive....so lesser lucrative for west.
Immigration.........
Etc.

 

[SandisLL]

Also despite some countries really didn't had gave a f k about their military, EU isn't such weak at all.
Some countries are reluctant to help Ukr, some are helping and still with limitations.

Pussy attitude about cluster ammo alone is laughable ....they had produced a lot in Cold War era and might had sent this old stuff to Ukr.
Germany fears to sent Taurus missiles ....
Etc stuff.