Why do you start from the knees? There is a lot of mat space and both of you seem to like standing passes.
you don't really control the head much from your guard. you've got lapel grips, but he retains posture and mobility the whole time. it's hard to have offense from your back if you aren't controlling their posture, and if you're not controlling their posture you're playing defense.
Interesting observation. Sometimes I feel like my guard is too defensive and I'm not generating enough offense. Any particular suggestions to help break down posture beyond yanking the lapel?