Regional elections in Germany

[JDragon]

On Sunday, March 13th, there will be elections in three German states:

1) the state of Baden-Württemberg (my home state; home of Daimler, Porsche, and Bosch); third largest German state
2) the state of Rhineland Palatinate (seventh largest state)
3) the state of Saxony-Anhalt (eastern Germany, one of the smaller states with weak economy)

I will focus on Baden-Württemberg in this thread for now.

Baden-Württemberg was governed by Merkel's Christian Democrat party (CDU) for decades (in varying coalitions) until 2011. There were protests against the 6 billion Euro train station project "Stuttgart 21" that were violently struck down by police; combined with Fukushima which occured only less than two weeks before the elections that led to a surge in anti-nuclear power sentiments.

As a result, the Green party (which is between 5 and 10 percent on a federal level) got 24 percent of the vote, the Social Democrats (SPD) got 23 percent, and together this was enough to form a coalition led by the Green party.

Flash forward five years: The Green Prime Minister Kretschmann is considered to have done a pretty good job. He is pragmatic, a Catholic and actually quite conservative by German standards. CDU voters would favor Kretschmann over their own candidate if they could vote for him directly. In addition, you have the refugee crisis, which alienated the right-wing part of the CDU and led them in the arms of the new and surging "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD), which is a nationalist and conservative party (but not exactly a Nazi party IMO - still need to differentiate there).

So in December 2015, polls were like the following:

CDU - 37%
SPD - 18%
Green Party - 25%
Liberal Party (FDP - fiscal conservatives, social liberals elsewhere but rather right-wing here) - 5%
Linke (far left-wing socialist party) - 4%
AfD - 8%
Others - 3%

Now "after Cologne" and with the campaigns in full swing - including the realization of many people that the candidate of the CDU sucks while the Green Party candidate is actually a conservative - the most recent polls look like this:

CDU - 29%
SPD - 14%
Green Party - 32%
Liberal Party - 6%
Linke (far left-wing socialist party) - 4%
AfD - 11%
Others - 4%

Personally, I believe the results will be more pronounced. Not everyone is gonna admit they vote for the AfD. In any case, it is gonna be very close for the current government due to the weakness of the Social Democrats. The only realistic, viable options would be a Green / CDU coalition which the CDU has already "ruled out" officially. Otherwise, only 3-party coalitions are possible.

 

[Luger]

How extreme are the AFD?

 

[Ruprecht]

How extreme are the AFD?

It's a German UKIP.

 

[Luger]

It's a German UKIP.

Ahhh, gotcha.

 

[YoungBoyd]

I remember cramming all the german bundesländer before a high school test in german. I don't remember much. How important is the regional election, and how much of leeway do they have to perform their own politics in opposition to the government?

 

[JDragon]

I remember cramming all the german bundesländer before a high school test in german. I don't remember much. How important is the regional election, and how much of leeway do they have to perform their own politics in opposition to the government?

The regional elections, per se, are of minor importance usually. Education, for example, is a matter of state level and not federal level. But a majority of really important decisions is taken on federal level.

However, there are two reasons why this is important anyway:

1) the signal for the federal level. The SPD is in a coalition with the CDU on a federal level and they will get crushed this Sunday. It is possible that the coalition will be over.
2) The Bundesrat (Federal Council); laws usually pass the federal parliament (Bundestag) and then need approval from Bundestag, which is composed of delegates from the states.

 

[YoungBoyd]

The regional elections, per se, are of minor importance usually. Education, for example, is a matter of state level and not federal level. But a majority of really important decisions is taken on federal level.

However, there are two reasons why this is important anyway:

1) the signal for the federal level. The SPD is in a coalition with the CDU on a federal level and they will get crushed this Sunday. It is possible that the coalition will be over.
2) The Bundesrat (Federal Council); laws usually pass the federal parliament (Bundestag) and then need approval from Bundestag, which is composed of delegates from the states.

Thank you.
1) So then which party do you think CDU will collaborate with after the next federal election? Some right leaning populist party?

 

[JDragon]

Thank you.
1) So then which party do you think CDU will collaborate with after the next federal election? Some right leaning populist party?

The CDU is massively losing voters from its conservative flank to the AfD. Funnily, this means that creating a government on state level OR federal level is almost impossible now without the CDU.

IMO it really depends. The "natural" partner for the CDU was always the Liberal Party (FDP), because they got along well on fiscal issues and found some middle ground on other issues. But the FDP was punished for being a corrupt lobbyist party at the 2013 federal election and from being in government was ejected from the Bundestag. Right now, they are selling themselves as an "AfD light".

Now the "Grand Coalition" with the Social Democrats is the next option. and I think on a federal level it should always suffice for those two parties.

A coalition with the Greens on a federal level is very unlikely - due to severe differences in political opinions, but especially because the Green party is not that strong on a federal level.

A coalition with the AfD is something I think the CDU will not want to consider. IMO their best chance here is to get rid of Merkel, swerve to the right and take the AfD voters back. Otherwise, they will be stuck with the SPD.

Would not really want to make a forecast now, though. Still more than a year until the election and the refugee issue is setting a lot in motion.

 

[Abezal]

How important are these elections to the fuhrer keeping her power ?

How would a few more cologne type events over the summer affect it all ?

Do the rapefugess have voting rights and if no how long until they get em.

 

[JDragon]

How important are these elections to the fuhrer keeping her power ?

How would a few more cologne type events over the summer affect it all ?

Do the rapefugess have voting rights and if no how long until they get em.

Obviously none of those questions are meant seriously, but I'll bite...

How important are these elections to the fuhrer keeping her power ?

It should neither be exaggerated nor underestimated. Both Baden-Württemberg and Saxony-Anhalt are cases that must be viewed in light of the regional specifics. But the harsher the losses, the more difficult it will be for Merkel to claim another nomination in fall.

How would a few more cologne type events over the summer affect it all ?

Would definitely accelerate the rise of the AfD and make especially the SPD nervous.

Do the rapefugess have voting rights and if no how long until they get em.

One of the conditions for refugees to be naturalized (a precondition for voting rights) is that they have lived in the country for at least six years. So if we consider the surge did not begin until 2014, none will vote in the federal elections in 2017.

 

[Ultrashogun]

If you consider AfD as near-nazi you have been reading too much Spiegel. We Germans need to abandon the idea that "Political right" is synonymous with "what the Nazis were".

I totally support AfD because:

1) Germany is not the bank of the South. I live in Italy, I see where the money goes (hint: its wasted).

2) Mass migration may be something that we want or not, but it has to be done in an orderly fashion. You cant just wing it and smear all opposition (German or other) as " far right" (which implys "nazi" in Germany).

3) The large coalition has been nothing but a circle jerk and it has made Germany politically stagnant. Even if AfD breaks all its promises (very possible in politics) it will serve to keep the establishment on its toes.


It wasnt mentioned in the OP but AfD was very strong is Hessen, where elections were held last sunday.

 

[Renard]

You people seem very calm for people being flooded by migrants by the millions. They say Germany expects 3.6M more refugees by 2020. It's time to hit the right-wing party panic button. If you don't, you're fucked.

 

[Abezal]

You people seem very calm for people being flooded by migrants by the millions. They say Germany expects 3.6M more refugees by 2020. It's time to hit the right-wing party panic button. If you don't, you're fucked.

Germs always have a plans, like building factories to get rid of millions people is a specialty of theirs.

 

[JDragon]

Gonna go vote soon, first results should be in about nine hours from now.

 

[Doctor Axel]

I cant be bothered to go and vote, im sick of the political class in this country.
The Greens are going to take it and their stance on mass/unchecked migration offers very little difference from Merkel.
This has been a problem for years in this country, there simply isnt a solid and credible alternative to Merkel and CDU.

3) The large coalition has been nothing but a circle jerk and it has made Germany politically stagnant. Even if AfD breaks all its promises (very possible in politics) it will serve to keep the establishment on its toes.

It wasnt mentioned in the OP but AfD was very strong is Hessen, where elections were held last sunday.

I understand voting for AfD just to say fuck you to the current establishment, but ppl. shouldnt forget that other then stopping the mass migration, this guys bring nothing to the table, and they're ardent euroskeptics.
The EU for all its faults, brings us far more economic benefits then losses.

 

[IIIIIIII]

Germs always have a plans, like building factories to get rid of millions people is a specialty of theirs.

i have to admit that i laughed. whatever it takes to remove merkel would be a step in the right direction.

 

[7437]

I am confused why you would vote for a party and be unwilling to admit it.

 

[KOQ24]

How important are these elections to the fuhrer keeping her power ?

How would a few more cologne type events over the summer affect it all ?

Do the rapefugess have voting rights and if no how long until they get em.

1.CDU isn't losing bad enough for her to resign, but the CDU is bleeding votes and her Party's base gets more and more frustrated with her.

2.More refugee attacks could lead to her asylum policies being even more unpopular (theres another round of state elections in September).

3.You might laugh, but some left-wing parties actually trotted out the idea that accepted asylum seekers should be able to vote in communial elections.



My state (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) votes in September.
My voting District is Angela Merkel's voting District


AfD is currently at 17% here in the polls

 

[WrestlinganJudo]

Germs always have a plans, like building factories to get rid of millions people is a specialty of theirs.

That wasn't needed. Why be a jerk like that?

 

[Abezal]

That wasn't needed. Why be a jerk like that?

Do facts hurt you, i know germs are trying to wash their hands clean of their great achievement. But to bad many will always remind that scum of what they did, that they are the greatest shame and embarrassment of all humanity.