Realistically, what are Gaethje's chances against Topuria?

[Harlekin]

Gay cheese has a chance vs anyone at 155.

Remember his head kick out of nowhere vs Dustin.

Illia is quality but not invincible. Until it happens we don't know what will happen.

I personally want to see it.

I wonder if he will try that.
Topuria bobs and weaves like a boxer, I definately would do it.
Also there is the narrative that Topuria is succeptible to headkicks (everybody gets caught in a long career) But Gaethje will want to believe it.

 

[Ramon Antonio]

19.36 percent IMO. He could hurt Ilia with punch, kick (low and high) or even a knee.

Most likely Ilia by KO though.

 

[Rubios]

Strickland was going to be a walk in the park for Adesanya.
Leon had nothing for Usman.

Justin’s chances are being a top 5 LW who hits like a mofo.

 

[Marko Polo]

Honestly at this point I think he loses about 9/10 times vs Topurio

 

[MDoza]

Gaethje’s got a ton of experience in the cage, it’s hard to count him out.

He’ll have a size advantage, and is more powerful than anyone Topuria’s fought before (debatably Josh Emmett, but Emmett was smaller than Topuria and only has a right hand).

 

[cburm]

I hate it, but I get it, and it's the right thing to do. Justin has always been a company man and he earned this shot at Topuria. I ain't gonna hate on anyone for chasing their dreams.

But I hate that this has to be his last fight. Statistically, it's a terrible matchup for him. HORRIBLE. I love the guy too much to want to see him face-planted in his last professional fight. Honestly, with Topuria in his prime and Justin being where he’s at, I’d say Topuria wins this 85-90% of the time.

But, just to play devil's advocate here: Does Justin have a path to victory if he stays disciplined? If he can keep Topuria out of boxing range and just spam those leg kicks to kill his movement? And what if he finally implements his wrestling to grind him out? If he follows a smart gameplan and avoids the mistake Charles Oliveira made, could he pull off the upset?

I just hope he can come out of it unscathed. What do you guys think? Is it a total mismatch or does the old lion have one last trick up his sleeve?

I personally gotta go Topuria. 9 times out of 10.

Weve never seen illia overwhelmed or pressured hard constantly ..

Gaethje was real open to upper cuts from paddy I don't think his chances are good.

Illia just needs an opening to exploit and hel catch someone who lets their guard down. Its gonna depend on volume other wise. Who ever slows down first I don't see winning.

I bet on gaethje vs paddy and was very confident.. but I don't think I can bet on gaethje vs illia. If I had to I'd put my money on illia for sure ..

Styles make fights guys paddy's style and skill set is very weak vs gaethje.. ..

Gaethje style vs illia.... Is not a good matchup for gaethje. But it's definitely the kinda fight gaethje loves.

 

[jeff7b9]

As a Gaethje fan... I'd say it'll come down to skateboards and banana peels.

He aint gonna win a shootout, Ilia is a fucking sniper, and I have watched Gaethje since WSOF and don't recall much of a plan B ever being on the table.

 

[BowserJr]

Tempuria hits harder but Gay cheese probably has a better chin.

He also has better kicks. Interesting to see what Top does. Probably go for KO since gay cheese is very hittable

 

[TrueBias]

Is top done with his wife shit?

Unsure if ive ever heard of a fighter on hiatus to deal with a wife. I understand it, but we're wasting time.

 

[prime_lobov]

Realistically, less than a 1% chance

 

[Rubios]

Realistically, less than a 1% chance

You don't understand what a fight is. Sorry.

So you think that if they enter the cage 100 times, Justin wins one at best?

Sports at the upper elite level don't work like that. Hand to hand combat, even less so.

 

[KillerIsBack V2]

Justin is a dead man walking (by pro athlete standars).

If there was any drop of “youth or prime” left it has evaporated in the paddy fight.

The man is 37 years old
32 pro and 7 amateur fights
+wrestled every single school and college year.

As of now, he most likely loses to a few of the unranked guys.

#FatherTimeisUndefeated