Realistically, what are Gaethje's chances against Topuria?

[lerobshow]

I hate it, but I get it, and it's the right thing to do. Justin has always been a company man and he earned this shot at Topuria. I ain't gonna hate on anyone for chasing their dreams.

But I hate that this has to be his last fight. Statistically, it's a terrible matchup for him. HORRIBLE. I love the guy too much to want to see him face-planted in his last professional fight. Honestly, with Topuria in his prime and Justin being where he’s at, I’d say Topuria wins this 85-90% of the time.

But, just to play devil's advocate here: Does Justin have a path to victory if he stays disciplined? If he can keep Topuria out of boxing range and just spam those leg kicks to kill his movement? And what if he finally implements his wrestling to grind him out? If he follows a smart gameplan and avoids the mistake Charles Oliveira made, could he pull off the upset?

I just hope he can come out of it unscathed. What do you guys think? Is it a total mismatch or does the old lion have one last trick up his sleeve?

I personally gotta go Topuria. 9 times out of 10.

 

[JoeBobbaLou2]

outside of a puncher's chance, lucky shot very little chance at victory.

Justin looked incredibly rusty in his fight with Paddy, and didn't utilize many of his strengths.

Topuria via 1st round KO. He's the crisper, more refined boxer/striker. he'll make this look easy

 

[lerobshow]

outside of a puncher's chance, lucky shot very little chance at victory.

Justin looked incredibly rusty in his fight with Paddy, and didn't utilize many of his strengths.

Topuria via 1st round KO. He's the crisper, more refined boxer/striker. he'll make this look easy

I would actually say a kicking chance, lol.

There's no way Gaethje can try to trade punches in the pocket with this guy. It just can't happen. Otherwise, he'll be having a quick nap just like Charles did.

It kinda frustrates me to see his wrestling background and how good he actually is, only to see him never fvking use it. But yeah I agree with you. I give 10% to Justin because hey it's fighting and anything can happen but Topuria right now in his prime is a scary sight. I don't think anyone can trade with that guy in the pocket regardless of if they're 145ers or 155ers or even 170ers.

That guy power is stupid. That's the kind of thing that you can't learn, you're just born with it.

 

[Tweak896]

Who knows where Topuria's head is at after his divorce stuff? Could be close just because he's taking a year off and had personal issues, Topuria seems like a fighter who does best with momentum behind him. Actually think this is the best odds Gaethje will get against Topuria. He's got size on Topuria that I think will matter more than it did with Olivera. Still, Topuria is just a master at roping the fight into his own finish, kind of like Silva. Topuria didn't like the last reckless striker with power at FW with Emmett slugging it with him, so he might not march in like usual.

 

[lerobshow]

Who knows where Topuria's head is at after his divorce stuff? Could be close just because he's taking a year off and had personal issues, Topuria seems like a fighter who does best with momentum behind him. Actually think this is the best odds Gaethje will get against Topuria. He's got size on Topuria that I think will matter more than it did with Olivera. Still, Topuria is just a master at roping the fight into his own finish, kind of like Silva. Topuria didn't like the last reckless striker with power at FW with Emmett slugging it with him, so he might not march in like usual.

I haven't even checked the odds yet, but I'm guessing Gaethje is probably close to +400??

The thing with Topuria is, not only does he have the power, but he knows how to cut the cage. The guy is one of the best I've seen since I started watching MMA in 2006 when it comes to closing the distance and cutting the ring. I think that's gonna be a huge problem for Gaethje when it comes to maintaining his distance and being effective with his kicks.

 

[fendertach]

Gaethje via rolling thunder KO

 

[RockyLockridge]

Punchers chance, but 100% chance of an exciting scrap no matter how long it lasts.

 

[HNIC215]

He has no chance...

They will draft a gameplan and Justin will ignore it lol

Ilia will bait him into an exchange and his crisp boxing will put a on Justin's career.

 

[dipstickjimmy]

I hate it, but I get it, and it's the right thing to do. Justin has always been a company man and he earned this shot at Topuria. I ain't gonna hate on anyone for chasing their dreams.

But I hate that this has to be his last fight. Statistically, it's a terrible matchup for him. HORRIBLE. I love the guy too much to want to see him face-planted in his last professional fight. Honestly, with Topuria in his prime and Justin being where he’s at, I’d say Topuria wins this 85-90% of the time.

But, just to play devil's advocate here: Does Justin have a path to victory if he stays disciplined? If he can keep Topuria out of boxing range and just spam those leg kicks to kill his movement? And what if he finally implements his wrestling to grind him out? If he follows a smart gameplan and avoids the mistake Charles Oliveira made, could he pull off the upset?

I just hope he can come out of it unscathed. What do you guys think? Is it a total mismatch or does the old lion have one last trick up his sleeve?

I personally gotta go Topuria. 9 times out of 10.

He can get the Undisputed title easily. Change his name to Arman and Toppy will vacate. If they actually fight Gathje could chop those legs and comprimise his movement. Threaten TDs as well and his striking effectiveness goes up. He definitely has to fight smart.

 

[whocares]

He has a pretty good chance if Topuria can't be bothered to fight anymore

 

[xhaydenx]

Somewhere between 0% and 0%.

Justin's head will be bouncing off the canvas within 2.5 mins.

 

[swarrrm]

He's currently +400, I think he should be closer to +700. This will be Topuria's easiest title fight imo. Sucks for Gaethje but he's going to get KO'd and end up a shoop thread.

 

[andgonsil]

Zero

 

[NicholasJBasile]

I hate it, but I get it, and it's the right thing to do. Justin has always been a company man and he earned this shot at Topuria. I ain't gonna hate on anyone for chasing their dreams.

But I hate that this has to be his last fight. Statistically, it's a terrible matchup for him. HORRIBLE. I love the guy too much to want to see him face-planted in his last professional fight. Honestly, with Topuria in his prime and Justin being where he’s at, I’d say Topuria wins this 85-90% of the time.

But, just to play devil's advocate here: Does Justin have a path to victory if he stays disciplined? If he can keep Topuria out of boxing range and just spam those leg kicks to kill his movement? And what if he finally implements his wrestling to grind him out? If he follows a smart gameplan and avoids the mistake Charles Oliveira made, could he pull off the upset?

I just hope he can come out of it unscathed. What do you guys think? Is it a total mismatch or does the old lion have one last trick up his sleeve?

I personally gotta go Topuria. 9 times out of 10.

I tend to agree with you. His leg kicks are nasty, but I feel he gets his with counter shots if he does that too much. I'd give him a fair puncher's chance to win.

 

[Portland8242]

It's a stupid fucking layup matchup for one of the most exciting champions in recent times.

There's a really interesting matchup with a legit #1 contender in Arman yet the UFC doesn't wanna do it. Makes no sense at all nowadays.

 

[godhatesacoward]

His best chance is a headkick. I think his leg kicks could work well against topuria too but that's it

 

[JKS]

The thing that gives Justin a shot here besides the obvious, his power and striking, is that Touuira is not some defensive whiz, he's there to be hit and leaves openings. So it's certainly a fight that Justin can win.

Justin's biggest challenges in this fight is he's fighting someone who has the same one punch KO power, but is more precise and accurate and has the speed advantage. So in the exchanges, you gotta favor Topuira every time. He's just gonna be faster and more accurate and beat Justin to the punch. So boxing approach and going shot for shot is a bad idea, Justin won't have success there. And both guys tend to fight at the same range, mid and close range. So that is a Ilia KO in the making.

Justin had a very good fight smart fight vs Poirier 2. He fought another boxer who had the same advantages and he played the counter game effectively and was very effective with his leg kicks, landed 11 in just over a round. So vs Topuira it will have to be the same approach, but he will need to step it up and be very sharpper, and add a few more stategies.

Leg kicks are going to be key, he's gonna have to be consistent and land hard. And in this fight it's orthadox vs orthodox, so Justins power leg kick will be landing to the outside of Ilia's lead leg, vs Poirier he didn't have that as Poirier is lefty. Ilia has the slighly wide stance and is heavy on his lead leg, so this will be a very important strategy for Justin.

He's gonna have to maintain the same ranage as Poirier and fight a bit on the outside and play the counter game. Furthermore, he's gonna be the bigger man so he'll need to be effective in the clinch and close range. Olivera clearly showed to be strong in the clinch vs Ilia, Justin needs to make his presense felt in there. Also, Justin will need to use some clinching against the cage here and pin Ilia against the cage and land some knees to his legs and body. I think all of this can really work in his favor to slow Ilia down and open up Justin's power punches. If he takes his legs out, all that power and footworks will be less effective.

If Justin can effectivley land his hard leg kicks and be effective in the clinch in the first two rounds in turn slowing Ilia down and making his boxing less effective, we got a fight. If Justin can't it's a matter of time till the KO happens inside two rounds. I am pretty sure Justin will come in with this strategy, he just fought like that vs Poirier and he's gotta a very smart coaching staff.

 

[Tweak896]

I haven't even checked the odds yet, but I'm guessing Gaethje is probably close to +400??

The thing with Topuria is, not only does he have the power, but he knows how to cut the cage. The guy is one of the best I've seen since I started watching MMA in 2006 when it comes to closing the distance and cutting the ring. I think that's gonna be a huge problem for Gaethje when it comes to maintaining his distance and being effective with his kicks.

That sounds about right. I don't put tons of stock into Gaethje right before retirement, but he might still have a better chance than most think. Don't underestimate the eye pokes!

 

[Killer Kadoogan]

hes got a punchers and kickers chance

 

[JKS]

I tend to agree with you. His leg kicks are nasty, but I feel he gets his with counter shots if he does that too much. I'd give him a fair puncher's chance to win.

He's fighting another orthadox fighter so it's Justins power leg kick to the outside of Ilia's lead leg, which is very good for Justin. You know he's gonna throw it over and over, so we can expect a few to land for sure. And the good thing is that you never really see Justin get counterd with his leg kicks, he's pretty good and timing them.

I also think playing the clinch game and pinning Ilia against the cage will be effective. Justin the bigger guy here and if he can get that position, he can use those knees to his legs and dirty boxing. At that range, Ilia can't really do much damage.

The first two rounds will be very intresesting.