Rafael dos Anjos vs Tony Ferguson- Breakdown

[fortheo]

It`s very hard to tell, i rewatched that Pettis fight and i was still as shocked like i was when i saw it live by the pace that RDA fought i mean, that mofo was a ridiculous conditioning training, check it out on his instagram and youtube, it`s insane.

Tony is also a cardio machine, it`s pretty amazing that his cardio is with RDA the best in the division considering the amount of weight he cuts, he another beast.

One think that i actually forgot to talk about was that this fight is in Mexico City...Now i hope this guys have watched the Werdum\Velasquez fight because if they didn`t have the proper conditioning they are fucked.



Thanks bro i appreciate it. I might do one for Weidman\Romero and Alvarez\McGregor next

He's ready. He's been up in the mountains for over a month now.

 

[DS7]

He's ready. He's been up in the mountains for over a month now.

I was on his instagram just a few minutes ago, dude is a beast. This will be FOTY candidate.

 

[lyndon955]

great thread TS you should do them for fights on UFC 205

 

[DS7]

great thread TS you should do them for fights on UFC 205

Already did for Woodley vs Wonderboy and i will do it for Weidman vs Romero and Alvarez vs Conor

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

Great break down! Great fight too!

I hate to be the one that goes there but we have only seen RDA two times in this new USADA era. If you remember, he took a massive layoff after it was implemented and that can oft mean fighters readjusting their chemical balances (just as Vitor and many others did after TRT ban). In those two fights, he KO'd Cerrone (who admitted he fights like shit after long layoffs and was forced to sit and wait months for RDA) and then getting KO'd by Eddie, in a fight he looked not as sharp and explosive to me. Granted, this is all just speculation but he was one of the few fighters that fell heavily under the brow of suspicion. His fight against Pettis was what, almost two years ago?

That was one performance that people said: 'if he aint on EPO or something, then no one is'. This fight is the perfect fight to answer that question for us as Tony will bring the pace. Barring an early KO, Tony will show us how good RDA's cardio really is and will hopeful give us our first real look at him since USADA was implemented. I do think that if it ends early, RDA will have been the one to KO him but seeing as he just lost, I expect him to try and play it safer (which Tony is sure not to oblige). Let's not forget what Tony did to Edson, who is definitely the better Muay Thai striker.

Tony is a terrifying fighter, like an indestructible zombie and that pressure freaks dudes out and makes them snap. I think this fight will reveal how elite Lando is and that all the things we are hearing out of Jacksons are true (i.e. Lando steam rolls everyone in that gym). And RDA is about as un-Lando as a fighter can get; stiff, orthodox and relies on his strength. Against Tony, the larger, longer and craftier fighter, who makes you fight at an uncomfortable pace and on his terms, that could be a bad move. Tony by D'Arce rd three.

 

[DS7]

Great break down! Great fight too!

I hate to be the one that goes there but we have only seen RDA two times in this new USADA era. If you remember, he took a massive layoff after it was implemented and that can oft mean fighters readjusting their chemical balances (just as Vitor and many others did after TRT ban). In those two fights, he KO'd Cerrone (who admitted he fights like shit after long layoffs and was forced to sit and wait months for RDA) and then getting KO'd by Eddie, in a fight he looked not as sharp and explosive to me. Granted, this is all just speculation but he was one of the few fighters that fell heavily under the brow of suspicion. His fight against Pettis was what, almost two years ago?

That was one performance that people said: 'if he aint on EPO or something, then no one is'. This fight is the perfect fight to answer that question for us as Tony will bring the pace. Barring an early KO, Tony will show us how good RDA's cardio really is and will hopeful give us our first real look at him since USADA was implemented. I do think that if it ends early, RDA will have been the one to KO him but seeing as he just lost, I expect him to try and play it safer (which Tony is sure not to oblige). Let's not forget what Tony did to Edson, who is definitely the better Muay Thai striker.

Tony is a terrifying fighter, like an indestructible zombie and that pressure freaks dudes out and makes them snap. I think this fight will reveal how elite Lando is and that all the things we are hearing out of Jacksons are true (i.e. Lando steam rolls everyone in that gym). And RDA is about as un-Lando as a fighter can get; stiff, orthodox and relies on his strength. Against Tony, the larger, longer and craftier fighter, who makes you fight at an uncomfortable pace and on his terms, that could be a bad move. Tony by D'Arce rd three.

There is no reason to think RDA is\was on steroids

 

[RichardN7]

Hi there fellow sherbros, in the past few days i have been analyzing both fighters and decided to share with you my thoughts on them and how do why think this fight will play out.


-This is one of the most exciting and intriguing match ups at 155 at the moment. What we will have in this fight is a battle of who can impose his will, 2 pressure and agressive fighters but with different styles of pressuring.



The path for Tony Ferguson:

-Now for him have success the key is pressure, pressure and pressure. He needs to be in a constant high pace(which he always does) because Dos Anjos has shown in the past that he doesn`t deal well whenever he’s being pressured. He tends to back himself up to the cage which Tony can take advantage because he will now have a easy target to hit with his overwhelming and criative striking.

--While Dos Anjos pressuring style is more around his agression, Tony`s pressure is all about his unpredictability has he comes forward with great unorthodox striking.


-That unorthodox style has tools like a great jab

-Straights

-Standing elbows

-He also mixes it up perfectly with rolling for kneebars or leg locks and rolling is also a tool he uses to get away from danger on the feet or in the grappling exchanges, it`s very crafty and smooth, here is some examples of that.

-Talking about the grappling, Tony has a nasty submission game. His submission of Edson Barboza was a thing of beauty and so impressive because not only he was so quick to catch it, it was amazing that he could lock it so tight considering that they were so slippery with all the sweat and blood. He has a whole submission repertory with arm triangles, rear naked choke, he loves that D`arce choke, the squeeze and tecnhique is one of the best i ever seen, and he comes out of nowhere and next thing you know, you getting chocked out.

-So for Tony he really needs to overwhelm Dos Anjos pressuring style with his own while being creative and unpredictable with his shots. He needs to draw Dos Anjos into a brawl, a ugly, dog fight which will benefite his usual style where he doesn`t mind to get hit to get his shots in and Dos Anjos is coming off of a brutal beating from Eddie so who knows how his chin can hold up in several exchanges that Tony might be able to draw him in.




So how does RDA deals with this??

- Well, for Dos Anjos the key is not letting Tony be first, he can`t let Tony find his rhythm and timming because from there El Cucuy is very hard to stop, if he backs up in a straight line, he will only make it easier for Ferguson to catch him with combos.

- From there, what can give Dos Anjos the advantage is his footwork, angles, faints, movement and agression. Those 5 things were what gave him the Lightweight World title at UFC 185 when he dismantle Antonhy Pettis who btw, was another unorthodox striker, so Dos Anjos has dealt with it and on a much higher tecnhical level because that was Antonhy Pettis and Tony Ferguson defense is almost non existent.

-Tony`s style is based on eating big shots to land his own, this won’t work forever. Not because he might meet a great counter striker that can shut his game out(Vannata was very close) but because the chin can only take so much before getting cracked.


- So RDA needs to be first, more agressive(the better bully) and use the angles. He has the footwork, speed and power to make it work.

-Using the angles is not just in the striking department, Dos Anjos is excellent at cutting space, getting you backing up to a small space were he can get in range and land viciously

-We talked about Tony`s unpredictability but Dos Anjos has shown that he can also have that, he can very well surprise Tony with something out of the box because he is not expecting something out of that arsenal that Rafael usually shows, Bendo learn that in the hard way.

-To complement this strategy RDA has one more tool in his arsenal who can be a huge factor in this fight: His wrestling.

-Exact same thing like above, cutting space, getting you backing up to a small space were he can get in range and...Take you down.

-We talked about El Cucuy`s submission game but Dos Anjos is a very solid BJJ black belt with great wrestling and when he takes people down he usually has success with keeping them down his excellent top control while Tony when taken down usually does a great job of scrambling back to his feet or control the position.

-He also has a very slick guard so i imagine he will have multiple submission attempts at Rafael just to keep him in check and test his attention and defense. It will definitely be super interesting to see the grappling battle if this fight ends up on the ground.




-So in conclusion, i think this will be a 5 round war and the winner will be the man who can implement his pressuring style better, Dos Anjos has more tools standing up and his very solid on the ground, Tony is more creative with his striking and has a super submission game but is not has complete of a grappler like RDA. I give the advantage to Dos Anjos but Tony is very much capable of continuing to put people away of his path to a titleshot.


Thank you for the reading and if you are interested i also made one breakdown to the Woodley\Wonderboy fight, you can read it here:

http://origin.forums.sherdog.com/th...thompson-my-breakdown-and-prediction.3375831/

I don't think Ferguson would ever, in a million years, be capable of outstriking RDA. I don't see 'creative, overwhelming striking' when I look at El Cucuy. He seems mediocre and not up to scratch when it comes to the 155 division. As for grappling, I honestly don't know who has the edge...
Either way, good breakdown, my money's on RDA.

 

[UseARubberGuard]

Great breakdown. This is easily going to be one of the most fun fights of the year.

 

[DS7]

-So in conclusion, i think this will be a 5 round war and the winner will be the man who can implement his pressuring style better

Told ya and got my answer. Fantastic performance by El Cucuy.