Political Betting Thread

[longway]

You really seem like you have very balanced analysis, completely devoid of any emotional interference.

I have never said I wasn't biased, and I have never made a secret of the fact i like Trump a lot. You seem pretty biased yourself.

 

[longway]

Mail-in/EV numbers seem to be giving Biden the lead he needs in PA. I think it's the highest likelihood of a Biden win among the real battleground states this election. If that's the case, he could actually lose MI and still win as long as he picks up another swing. He could even lose *both* MI and WI if he picks up either FL or OH.

I don't know. As you said before, party affiliation in PA is not a great indicator of voting patterns, it's the age breakdown that is more informative imo. There is likely a lot of so-called cross-over vote in the Democrat numbers in PA.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Younger voter participation is pretty low. High youth turnout was one of the main drivers of the narrative of a Hiden landslide win, but it's just not there.

 

[Roads55]

Betfair's going to hit £300 million today!

Trump £136 million
Biden £148.5 million

I suspect a good amount of the additional biden money is coming from bookmakers who are hedging the action they are getting on trump.

 

[Barkus]

I think

I have never said I wasn't biased, and I have never made a secret of the fact i like Trump a lot. You seem pretty biased yourself.

The beauty of gambling is you can be a total fanboy but at the end of the day you have to put up or shut up. This goes for political analysis and MMA analysis.

Another beautiful thing about gambling is you can have a 115 page political discussion and see very little fighting.

 

[BigSteve]

Alex Jones says Trump will dominate, enough for me

 

[stipeszn]

I have never said I wasn't biased, and I have never made a secret of the fact i like Trump a lot. You seem pretty biased yourself.

I just don't know how wise it is to bet on something that you are this emotionally invested in. I'm no fan of Joe and Kamala, but man, you should take a day off sometime

 

[longway]

I just don't know how wise it is to bet on something that you are this emotionally invested in. I'm no fan of Joe and Kamala, but man, you should take a day off sometime

A stranger offering me unsolicited advice on the interwebs, wow that changes everything. I will do exactly as you suggest sir. I see the light now.

 

[Roads55]

@longway did you bet that "winner to lose popular vote" line at all? i know your on trump but i think that's a better bet than trump ML. potentially could use it to risk a little less, or win a little more.

 

[Roads55]

I just don't know how wise it is to bet on something that you are this emotionally invested in. I'm no fan of Joe and Kamala, but man, you should take a day off sometime

You do have a point which I want to overstate this at everyone reading here today. but longway is aware of his bias and smart enough to factor into his decision making, as people know the risks then good luck to them but many people don't and that is why the lines are so out of touch with the polls, the trump money is skewing the odds quite dramatically.

 

[longway]

@longway did you bet that "winner to lose popular vote" line at all? i know your on trump but i think that's a better bet than trump ML. potentially could use it to risk a little less, or win a little more.

I dont think so, but I pulled all my bets out in between the start of COVID thing and getting locked out of my Betfair account. I am using smarkets now, and haven't that bet on.

 

[Roads55]

Maybe the casual money will be right, I don't think so but unlike most people I'm hearing from I'm certainly not willing to commit 100% to my big biden position, I have no problem jumping ship at the first gut feeling that an upset is on the cards as results come in. ppl on both sides seem way to committed to their bets imo, but I clearly think the value is on biden as of now with these odds.

 

[longway]

You do have a point which I want to overstate this at everyone reading here today. but longway is aware of his bias and smart enough to factor into his decision making, as people know the risks then good luck to them but many people don't and that is why the lines are so out of touch with the polls, the trump money is skewing the odds quite dramatically.

I look at differently. I don't think the Trump odds are hype, it's just that the Hiden lead is overstated, and people are using other indicators. The models using the polls and what you see in reality don't tally.

Low youth turnout, huge enthusiasm gap, early voting not that good for Hiden in FL and other states, the quality of the DNC ticket is abysmal (insulting to voters imo), voter registration gap between DNC and GOP at all-time lows in battlegrounds, the disparagement of non-conforming polls as 'low quality/biased', the lack of coherence in state polls, the crazy leads in the national polls, and the betting line itself. I just can't imagine big players will pass up this free money if they actually believed in the polls.

 

[Roads55]

I dont think so, but I pulled all my bets out in between the start of COVID thing and getting locked out of my Betfair account. I am using smarkets now, and haven't that bet on.

I'm pretty surprised smarkets don't actually have that market considering all the other more novel ones they have. here's the betfair link: https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange....au/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.171209463 (not sure if it works for you from the.com.au site but its easy to find anyway.)

I'd really recommend you use betfair for live betting, the money in these markets is insane, and opportunities like this are very rare imo. I know you had a bad experience there but worth a try for this.

 

[Roads55]

I look at differently. I don't think the Trump odds are hype, it's just that the Hiden lead is overstated, and people are using other indicators. The models using the polls and what you see in reality don't tally.

Low youth turnout, huge enthusiasm gap, early voting not that good for Hiden in FL and other states, the quality of the DNC ticket is abysmal, voter registration gap between DNC and GOP at all-time lows in battlegrounds, the disparagement of non-conforming polls as 'low quality/biased', the lack of coherence in state polls, the crazy leads in the national polls, and the betting line itself. I just can't imagine big players will pass up this free money if they actually believed in the polls.

agree with a lot of this, I just don't think the disparity is enough to overcome biden's lead, I just think a certain amount of trump's odds are hype, the action on him confirms this to me, there's plenty of big players on biden, but also some on trump which when combined with the casual trump interest makes the line a bit more skewed.

 

[Roads55]

Anyone liking trump to win florida at 1.8 or so? I got a little bit at an avg of 2.3 or so, but im tempted to add tbh, only thing stopping me is possibly early results coming in might favour biden, pushing trump's line higher where I potentially want to bet live.

 

[Roads55]

not looked at this one really but I like Biden to win 49-52% of the popular vote at 4.7, took a stab at that.

 

[longway]

Anyone liking trump to win florida at 1.8 or so? I got a little bit at an avg of 2.3 or so, but im tempted to add tbh, only thing stopping me is possibly early results coming in might favour biden, pushing trump's line higher where I potentially want to bet live.

Don't panic over the exit polls, they will be bs and favour Hiden, a good time to bet imo, obviously, you got to believe he will win, but maybe a hedge option available there for Hiden bettors

 

[Roads55]

what's everyone's positions atm?

I've tried not to spread too much money about on too many markets, currently i got:

Election winner

Biden +12u
Trump -13u

Winning party

Republicans +1.75u
Democrats -0.8u

Next president to lose popular vote

Yes +4.2u
No -0.2u

Florida

Republicans +2.4u
Democrats -2u
will probably freeroll this on republicans and look to bet in play, or at least half my liability on democrats.

got a few tiny freerolls on various states too and a couple tiny losses.

Edit: Forgot about this too, been scalping since 2017 lol, although won't be graded for a while.

Trump to leave before end of 1st term:

Yes: -0.65u
No: +4u

 

[Roads55]

Don't panic over the exit polls, they will be bs and favour Hiden, a good time to bet imo, obviously, you got to believe he will win, but maybe a hedge option available there for Hiden bettors

My thoughts exactly. unless they seem really favorable to biden ofc. like if the republican vote is lower than anticipated due to IPEV for instance, probably not a factor but worth keeping in mind.

 

[Roads55]

Anyone interested in a discord grp for today? easier to post and keep tabs on shit. just an idea.