Political Betting Thread

Im so happy that the Biden campaign is as stupid as i thought they were.

Massive confidence boost in trump.

Man some of you are beyond delusional. Would you have preferred Warren? If this choice boosted your confidence massively, I’d suggest you’re too invested in a second trump term to objectively evaluate this from a gambling perspective.
 
Couldnt agree more. Rabid golden shower boy fans in here.

There’s no worse bet than betting on your favorite team or fighter instead of objectively looking at who will win
 
Man some of you are beyond delusional. Would you have preferred Warren? If this choice boosted your confidence massively, I’d suggest you’re too invested in a second trump term to objectively evaluate this from a gambling perspective.

Warren would have been even better. She is a bigger idiot than Harris, and with the same level of integrity.

Well, line shifted from +178 to +160 since she was picked, I expect to continue shortening. Harris was rejected by dnc primary voters on a massive scale for a reason, the more people see her the more repulsed they will be. We shall how the odds shift over time.

I bought trump line last year at +150 ish, about 20+ units, it then shortened to - 140 or so prior corona. I wish I had sold then. But then when it became clear that corona was going to have a massive effect I sold my position at no loss.

Now, I think the line is way oversold again. Let's see, I like exchange betting as I can buy and sell as I please. I even put a little Harris to bc president as the odds are great.

I think Biden bettors need a good long look in the mirror. Just look at the state of him, then look at the state of Harris. Being POTUS is no joke, and they both are, and the USA will be the punchline.
 
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There’s no worse bet than betting on your favorite team or fighter instead of objectively looking at who will win

Definitely agree because I do that lmao. There's some guys like Darren Till who I'm always throwing money on because I love him, but I'm always aware those bets are higher than my actual confidence in him.

With politics though, I'm always trying to look at outcomes as objectively as possible. I maintained for a long time that the primary race was Biden vs Bernie, as much as I thought Biden sucked and that other candidates would shine brighter on the debate stages. The polling didn't budge enough against him, and I couldn't ignore that just because I didn't like it.

In 2016 I thought that the election was a tossup and people weren't taking the threat of Trump winning seriously enough. The data had him much closer in some states than people let on, and the Trump base was excited to go out and vote for him, while everyone else was apathetic about the assumed Hillary win. So I laid money on Trump, despite me desperately wanting him to lose. This year I just don't see his path to victory unless some major event happens that pushes things in his favor. If I was worried about it I wouldn't be hiding it. But I'm at the point where I'm thinking of using Biden's victory line as a savings account lol
 
If it were legal and Obama Could run again , with Biden, Hillary or Sanders, they’d all lose 10/10 to Tump.

It’s pure delusion to think Trump doesnt win by a landslide.
 
If it were legal and Obama Could run again , with Biden, Hillary or Sanders, they’d all lose 10/10 to Tump.

It’s pure delusion to think Trump doesnt win by a landslide.

You know that you can get Trump at +125 right now? If you think him winning is basically a foregone conclusion, you must have absolutely insane amounts of $ (relative to how much you have of course) on him right now right? Hell, I would if I saw it how you do. Give me something at + odds that I think has an extremely small chance of losing and it's time to get a bit reckless.
 
You know that you can get Trump at +125 right now? If you think him winning is basically a foregone conclusion, you must have absolutely insane amounts of $ (relative to how much you have of course) on him right now right? Hell, I would if I saw it how you do. Give me something at + odds that I think has an extremely small chance of losing and it's time to get a bit reckless.

I already have $100 on it at + 100. Also, you never bet the house no matter what. Doesn’t matter if you know something is a lock.
 
I already have $100 on it at + 100. Also, you never bet the house no matter what. Doesn’t matter if you know something is a lock.

You can get him on betfair at +146 currently, since biden chose his VP the odds have shortened from +178.
 
I already have $100 on it at + 100. Also, you never bet the house no matter what. Doesn’t matter if you know something is a lock.

Not "the house", I'm not saying risk everything you have. But if you think it's say...90% that Trump wins and you get + odds you have to make it a monster play compared to anything else you'd normally bet.
 
Debating about a national election is tough since you can't really get a good picture of what's going on in the rest of the country unless you travel often. It's impossible to debate the election without your local bias coming into the debate. I live in Seattle and I just posted someplace else that around here the majority in Washington State hate Trump so much that BLM could go house to house kicking whites out and beating or killing them and white liberals would still defend BLM and vote Democrat. Many people don't vote on issues or one single issue -they vote for the same party regardless of what is happening in the news. My guess is that it will come down to the 3 or 4 swing states that it always does- Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona. So unless you know what's going on in those states it's pretty tough to claim that anyone will win by a landslide.
 
Landslide with 4 years of youth turning 18, the BLM movement, and the disaster of COVID?

And we’re the ones who are delusional?

It's his $ haha, if he truly believes it he should go for it.

Betting $ and politics is weird, people are so emotionally invested so often that it skews reality to them. I'm an upper middle class white guy who has always leaned conservative (and likely always will). Not every issue, but more than not. That said I think Trump is a disaster. But man when it comes to betting my $ there is no way I'll let my own views warp reality. That's a good way to watch your bankroll shrink very quickly.
 
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It's his $ haha, if he truly believes it he should go for it.

Betting $ and politics is weird, people are so emotionally invested so often that it skews reality to them. I'm an upper middle class white guy who has always leaned conservative (and likely always will). Not every issue, but more than not. That said I think Trump is a disaster. But man when it comes to betting my $ there is no way I'll let my own views warp reality. That's a good way to watch your bankroll shrink very quickly.

Agreed and we're probably in the same sort of boat on our leanings. Fiscally conservative, socially liberal in the sense that I support people doing whatever they wanna do (gay marriage, etc)- I wouldn't bet on the election though simply because of the absurd nature of the electoral college
 
I’m an upper middle class, second generation Ecuadorian man. My family stood in line and came here legally. Fuck all illegal immigrants period.

most of my family is libertarian or republican. We support people living their lives doing whatever they want (gay marriage) and even though we know it’s murder, we’re fine letting the states decide their abortion laws.

It’s honestly hilarious hearing grown men claim Trumps presidency is a disaster. Please explain.

Lowest black unemployment in US history.

Best economy in years.
President Trump signed the 2018 Farm Bill which legalized the Production of industrial Hemp.

Brought back more manufacturing jobs than the last 2 presidents combined.

Has avoided starting any new wars in the Middle East, unlike Obama and Bush.


Under President Trump’s leadership, Congress passed historic tax cuts and relief for hard-working Americans. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act:

  • Is the first major tax reform signed in 30 years.

  • Provided tax relief for 82% of middle-class families.

  • Doubled the Child Tax Credit proving an additional $1,000 per child in tax relief for working parents.

  • Nearly doubled the standard deduction, a change that simplified the tax filing process for millions of Americans.

  • Cut taxes for small business by 20%, providing $415 billion in tax relief for small business owners.

  • Alleviated the tax burden on over 500 companies. who used those savings to fund bonuses, wage increases for 4.8 million workers.

  • Spurred new investments into the American economy, after it was passed businesses invested $482 billion into new American projects.

  • Repealed Obamacare’s burdensome individual mandate.

  • Made U.S. companies competitive on the world stage, lowering the corporate tax rate from one of the highest in the industrialized world (35%) to 21%.
U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has soared under President Trump, topping 3% in 4 quarters under his administration.

  • 2018 annual GDP growth was 2.9%

  • In the first quarter of 2019 GDP growth was 3.1%
President Trump is unleashing economic growth and jobs. Since his election, the Trump administration’s pro-growth policies have generated 6 million new jobs, the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest point in 50 years, and wages have grown at more than 3% for 10 months in a row.

  • The manufacturing industry created nearly half a million new jobs.

  • 625,000 new construction jobs have been created since President Trump took office.

  • Hispanic, Asian and African American unemployment rates have all reached record lows under President Trump.

  • There are more than a million more job openings than unemployed persons in the U.S.
President Trump signed an executive order that expanded federally funded apprenticeship programs and on-the-job training, to provide an alternative for those looking to gain in demand skills that lack the resources to attend four year universities.

  • The executive order set in motion a new process that makes it easier for businesses to create and scale apprenticeship programs, providing many more Americans access to an affordable education that leads to a well-paying job.

  • The Workforce Development Advisory Council established by President Trump’s executive order has already created on-the-job training opportunities for 6.5 million Americans.
The Trump administration prioritized the economic empowerment of women at home and across the globe.

  • The Trump Administration launched the Women’s Global Development and Prosperity (W-GDP) Initiative, the first-ever whole-of-government approach focused on advancing women’s full and free participation in the global economy and allocated $50 million for the fund.
President Trump rescinded President Obama’s costly Clean Power Plan and instead has proposed the Affordable Clean Energy Rule.

  • According to NERA Economic Consulting, the CPP would have increased electricity rates by as much as 14 percent, costing American households up to $79 billion.

  • The Affordable Clean Energy Rule will reduce greenhouse gasses, empower states, promote energy independence, and facilitate economic growth and job creation
In addition to the Clean Power Plan, the Trump administration has rescinded many costly Obama-Era regulations.

  • The EPA has rescinded President Obama’s methane emissions rule that would cost American energy developers an estimated $530 million annually.

  • The EPA is reviewing a rule that if rescinded would relax costly fuel standards and save $340 billion in regulatory costs.

I mean Christ, do you even do your own research or do you just regurgitate CNN headline?
 
I’m an upper middle class, second generation Ecuadorian man. My family stood in line and came here legally. Fuck all illegal immigrants period.

most of my family is libertarian or republican. We support people living their lives doing whatever they want (gay marriage) and even though we know it’s murder, we’re fine letting the states decide their abortion laws.

It’s honestly hilarious hearing grown men claim Trumps presidency is a disaster. Please explain.

Lowest black unemployment in US history.

Best economy in years.
President Trump signed the 2018 Farm Bill which legalized the Production of industrial Hemp.

Brought back more manufacturing jobs than the last 2 presidents combined.

Has avoided starting any new wars in the Middle East, unlike Obama and Bush.


Under President Trump’s leadership, Congress passed historic tax cuts and relief for hard-working Americans. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act:

  • Is the first major tax reform signed in 30 years.

  • Provided tax relief for 82% of middle-class families.

  • Doubled the Child Tax Credit proving an additional $1,000 per child in tax relief for working parents.

  • Nearly doubled the standard deduction, a change that simplified the tax filing process for millions of Americans.

  • Cut taxes for small business by 20%, providing $415 billion in tax relief for small business owners.

  • Alleviated the tax burden on over 500 companies. who used those savings to fund bonuses, wage increases for 4.8 million workers.

  • Spurred new investments into the American economy, after it was passed businesses invested $482 billion into new American projects.

  • Repealed Obamacare’s burdensome individual mandate.

  • Made U.S. companies competitive on the world stage, lowering the corporate tax rate from one of the highest in the industrialized world (35%) to 21%.
U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has soared under President Trump, topping 3% in 4 quarters under his administration.

  • 2018 annual GDP growth was 2.9%

  • In the first quarter of 2019 GDP growth was 3.1%
President Trump is unleashing economic growth and jobs. Since his election, the Trump administration’s pro-growth policies have generated 6 million new jobs, the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest point in 50 years, and wages have grown at more than 3% for 10 months in a row.

  • The manufacturing industry created nearly half a million new jobs.

  • 625,000 new construction jobs have been created since President Trump took office.

  • Hispanic, Asian and African American unemployment rates have all reached record lows under President Trump.

  • There are more than a million more job openings than unemployed persons in the U.S.
President Trump signed an executive order that expanded federally funded apprenticeship programs and on-the-job training, to provide an alternative for those looking to gain in demand skills that lack the resources to attend four year universities.

  • The executive order set in motion a new process that makes it easier for businesses to create and scale apprenticeship programs, providing many more Americans access to an affordable education that leads to a well-paying job.

  • The Workforce Development Advisory Council established by President Trump’s executive order has already created on-the-job training opportunities for 6.5 million Americans.
The Trump administration prioritized the economic empowerment of women at home and across the globe.

  • The Trump Administration launched the Women’s Global Development and Prosperity (W-GDP) Initiative, the first-ever whole-of-government approach focused on advancing women’s full and free participation in the global economy and allocated $50 million for the fund.
President Trump rescinded President Obama’s costly Clean Power Plan and instead has proposed the Affordable Clean Energy Rule.

  • According to NERA Economic Consulting, the CPP would have increased electricity rates by as much as 14 percent, costing American households up to $79 billion.

  • The Affordable Clean Energy Rule will reduce greenhouse gasses, empower states, promote energy independence, and facilitate economic growth and job creation
In addition to the Clean Power Plan, the Trump administration has rescinded many costly Obama-Era regulations.

  • The EPA has rescinded President Obama’s methane emissions rule that would cost American energy developers an estimated $530 million annually.

  • The EPA is reviewing a rule that if rescinded would relax costly fuel standards and save $340 billion in regulatory costs.

I mean Christ, do you even do your own research or do you just regurgitate CNN headline?

I would not have called Trump a disaster until the pandemic hit. His lack of leadership and accountability has been eye opening. Everyone can of course have their own view but mine is that his "plan" has been to wish the virus out of existence, make ridiculous claims that everything is fine, and on the rare occasion he admits things aren't good to just blame anyone and everyone else.

I'm not going to get into a giant debate about his policy moves, that's not what this thread is for. I agree some have been beneficial. My main issue is that when someone thinks they are infallible like he does AND they are granted a massive amount of power, generally things turn out badly.

Edit: I don't look at CNN or watch it. I'm sure they do nothing but take shots at Trump but I wouldn't know.
 
I would not have called Trump a disaster until the pandemic hit. His lack of leadership and accountability has been eye opening. Everyone can of course have their own view but mine is that his "plan" has been to wish the virus out of existence, make ridiculous claims that everything is fine, and on the rare occasion he admits things aren't good to just blame anyone and everyone else.

I'm not going to get into a giant debate about his policy moves, that's not what this thread is for. I agree some have been beneficial. My main issue is that when someone thinks they are infallible like he does AND they are granted a massive amount of power, generally things turn out badly.

Edit: I don't look at CNN or watch it. I'm sure they do nothing but take shots at Trump but I wouldn't know.

There is nothing particularly disastrous about the pandemic response outside new york and new jersey. Though the states continuing unecessary lockdowns and school closures are making it more of a disaster than it needs to be.

I don't know where you get the idea that he thinks he is infallible.

Fauci and birx are on record saying he has always listened to them.

The things you assert in your post are delusional and beyond ridiculous.
 
There is nothing particularly disastrous about the pandemic response outside new york and new jersey. Though the states continuing unecessary lockdowns and school closures are making it more of a disaster than it needs to be.

I don't know where you get the idea that he thinks he is infallible.

Fauci and birx are on record saying he has always listened to them.

The things you assert in your post are delusional and beyond ridiculous.

I read his Twitter posts. That's literally where I come to my conclusions. Not from anyone else's views or op eds about him, etc. He projects himself to be nearly infallible and if you disagree I don't know what to tell you.

I think NOT viewing him this way is utterly delusional and ridiculous. So...we agree to disagree. I don't have a direct line into his mind so I don't unequivocally KNOW how he views himself but from what I've seen it's what he projects. And again, some of his actual policy decisions have been beneficial imo, I don't think every aspect of his presidency has been a disaster.

Believe me I'm not trying to change yours or anyone else's mind about the guy. Believe whatever you want. We are all free to disagree, nothing wrong with that.
 
I read his Twitter posts. That's literally where I come to my conclusions.

I guess that's better than getting your impressions from Fake News, but it's still quite silly. Twitter posts are meant to promote oneself and rally supporters. Nothing more.

It's not meant to be serious policy discussion and/or a look into a man's soul/mind.

Anywho, this election is pretty fucking simple. On the one hand, you have Democrats, who support mass riots and looting, criminality in general, are in favor of destroying America's heroes and history, terrorizing ordinary citizens in big cities and suburbs alike, institute mass internment for everyone except those involved in said destruction, and hate "whiteness" with the fury of a thousand suns.

It's a basic Marxist approach to taking power in a country. I'm not hating; I immigrated from the Soviet Union, and we've seen this same song and dance dozens of times throughout the world since 1917. Of course, here it's more cultural/racial rather than economic, which is a clever adaptation, but nonetheless.

IF you're someone that hates America and present society, and thinks you will be part of the intellgentsia in the new order, then by all means, vote Biden. I don't type that with any sarcsasm, either.

If, however, you like the US and think present society is nicer than the socialist hellhole that revolution will inevitably plunge the country into, vote Trump.

Not that one's vote will likely matter, especially with the Democrats trying to rig the elections with fraud by mail.
 

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