• The upgrade to XenForo 2.3.7 has now been completed. Please report any issues to our administrators.

Political Betting Thread

Once again Biden shows is is the lone democrat among the front runners who shows glimmers of strategic thinking.

Buden not ruling out a republican running mate. Unfortunately for him the democrat base has been made hysterical with non-stop propaganda, so being reasonable about anything is a massive handicap.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/joe-b...lican-running-mate?source=twitter&via=desktop

I wonder if pelosi is holding up the impeachment (remember that?) as she has realised that trump will destroy biden if she lets her shitshow reach the senate.

Doomsberg has scuppered buttigiegs chance at nomination, and warren is a dishrag not fit for this level of politics.

I think now that impeachment reaching senate likely means that bernie gets the nomination, and thats the end of the dnc as a moderate party as the crazies will take it over.
 
Last edited:
Biden and Sanders have been getting bet this week, warren drifting, bigger and bigger gaps are starting to appear in the odds for some of the candidates on the exchanges, the race and odds are about to pick up steam really fast.
 
Bernie is leading in NH and Iowa. It's between Biden and Bernie now. Pelosi is snookered. She can't continue with the impeachment as it would destroy Biden's reputation. They have to rely on slow joe to pull out a win for them or face complete destruction if Bernie gets the nod. I can only laugh. If you are going to impeach the president, you should actually have some grounds for impeachment. This whole thing was clearly a set-up by Trump from the start.

There should be odds that there will be no democratic nominee, I think the DNC would prefer that outcome over Bernie winning.

Ive got about 1u on trump winning the PV at +700. I think i will add 2u on it.
 
Last edited:
longway said:
Bernie is leading in NH and Iowa. It's between Biden and Bernie now. Pelosi is snookered. She can't continue with the impeachment as it would destroy Biden's reputation. They have to rely on slow joe to pull out a win for them or face complete destruction if Bernie gets the nod. I can only laugh. If you are going to impeach the president, you should actually have some grounds for impeachment. This whole thing was clearly a set-up by Trump from the start.

There should be odds that there will be no democratic nominee, I think the DNC would prefer that outcome over Bernie winning.

Ive got about 1u on trump winning the PV at +700. I think i will add 2u on it.
Click to expand...

where abouts did you get those pv odds?
 
Roads55 said:
where abouts did you get those pv odds?
Click to expand...

5D. It was something silly like winning the PV and EC was at higher odds than getting the PV alone. A mistake on the part of 5D. BTW I just cashed out all 23u of my bet on Trump winning the next election. I cash out with 2.5u profit, but given that the extent of the Iranian missile strikes and the strong possibility of a war with Iran, which would make me an ex-Trump supporter, he could well now lose the election anyway imo. Much of his base are not traditional Republicans, but people who are tired of these stupid wars.

He pulls a rabbit out of his ass and somehow comes out without a massive war I will bet him again, but until then I will wait and see. same with the dnc nominee bets, I have already cashed out with about 4.25u profit, it was too unpredictable, though I will sprinkle something on tulsi now, as her anti-war message will have a special resonance in these circumstances.

It will probably help Sanders too, depending on the fall-out, though good help us if he gets elected, opens up a path where Tulsi is his VP.
 
Last edited:
longway said:
5D. It was something silly like winning the PV and EC was at higher odds than getting the PV alone. A mistake on the part of 5D. BTW I just cashed out all 23u of my bet on Trump winning the next election. I cash out with 2.5u profit, but given that the extent of the Iranian missile strikes and the strong possibility of a war with Iran, which would make me an ex-Trump supporter, he could well now lose the election anyway imo. Much of his base are not traditional Republicans, but people who are tired of these stupid wars.

He pulls a rabbit out of his ass and somehow comes out without a massive war I will bet him again, but until then I will wait and see. same with the dnc nominee bets, I have already cashed out with about 4.25u profit, it was too unpredictable, though I will sprinkle something on tulsi now, as her anti-war message will have a special resonance in these circumstances.

It will probably help Sanders too, depending on the fall-out, though good help us if he gets elected, opens up a path where Tulsi is his VP.
Click to expand...

Cool, can't see it there now unfortunately, was a great line until a few hours ago lol. i just did the same with my trump bets, no telling how this could affect his chances but it's probably going to be negative for him. the market hasn't reacted at all yet which i found surprising, although i guess it is still 2 a.m in europe.

Yeah i guess this will benefit sanders also, but will he really use it to maximum effect? not so sure. he could really use this as a point to hammer home the message that biden was even more reckless than trump has been so far in his fully fledged support for the iraq war, but he hasn't really done so in the past.
 
Roads55 said:
Cool, can't see it there now unfortunately,
Click to expand...

Politics is in other sports, but they take it out of the options regularly to adjust the odds. There is no politics option at the moment afaics. I tried to add the 2u yesterday and luckily, as it turns out, the politics section was pulled.

I guess the Ayatollah loved that guy like a brother and would rather go out like a lion than back down. The human factor is always unpredictable. I still have a hope that Trump will get a negotiation going with whats left of Iran and we pull out of Iraq and the rest the shithole countries there and leave it all alone.
 
Last edited:
Wow, things change fast. Apparrntly fake news were, as usual, lying about us casualties. 0 deaths. And Iran wants to call it quits.

20u back on trump at -104

Situationiin was merely snafu rather than fubar.
 
Warren campaign continues its strategy of doing stupud stuff for no discernible reason. What does she think being president neans? She is like a tourist who got lost and stumbled on to a stage somehow.

 
really does feel like sanders has a shit ton of momentum now,, the mainstream media is now forced to cover him a lot more and give his polling consistency attention. he can really take it to biden if he presses the war monger narrative. the next debate is gonna be a big opportunity for both.
 
really does feel like sanders has a shit ton of momentum now,, the mainstream media is now forced to cover him a lot more and give his polling consistency attention. he can really take it to biden if he presses the war monger narrative. the next debate is gonna be a big opportunity for both.
 
Roads55 said:
he can really take it to biden if he presses the war monger narrative.
Click to expand...

I think it's going to be open warfare between Bernie and Biden now. But the warmongering issue is now dead. Trump is going to make peace with Iran.
 
longway said:
I think it's going to be open warfare between Bernie and Biden now. But the warmongering issue is now dead. Trump is going to make peace with Iran.
Click to expand...

i hope so, but i dont think biden will be able to resist attacking trump in the debate over iran, bernie can plan a strong counter in the lead up.
 
After pulling out all my bets on the dim nominee, I have put about 4U on Buttigieg at +1100 or so. Not that I think he will win, but his line should be +700, about where Warren is right now. She seems to be bleeding support week by week and could well end up without any delegates from Iowa and NH, and Buttigieg is right up there with Biden and Sanders in those 2 states, so that should give his line a boost and I can sell my position then. Also, in the debate, if Bernie goes after Biden, it is most likely Buttigieg/Bloomberg (the Bloomberg line is just ridiculous though) that will be the beneficiary of any loss of support for Biden.

The January debate could be a crucial moment, I suspect this is when most people will start to wake up and take a real interest in the candidates

Hopefully, line movement will go my way and I can squeeze out an extra couple of units profit. I think Biden is a little overbought currently and we could see his line soften, which would be the right time to buy-in as he is still the most likely nominee.
 
Last edited:
Added small amounts to Steyer and Klobuchar in case there will be any line movements after the January 14 debate. With Bernie on the warpath, things could change in unexpected ways.
 
longway said:
After pulling out all my bets on the dim nominee, I have put about 4U on Buttigieg at +1100 or so. Not that I think he will win, but his line should be +700, about where Warren is right now. She seems to be bleeding support week by week and could well end up without any delegates from Iowa and NH, and Buttigieg is right up there with Biden and Sanders in those 2 states, so that should give his line a boost and I can sell my position then. Also, in the debate, if Bernie goes after Biden, it is most likely Buttigieg/Bloomberg (the Bloomberg line is just ridiculous though) that will be the beneficiary of any loss of support for Biden.

The January debate could be a crucial moment, I suspect this is when most people will start to wake up and take a real interest in the candidates

Hopefully, line movement will go my way and I can squeeze out an extra couple of units profit. I think Biden is a little overbought currently and we could see his line soften, which would be the right time to buy-in as he is still the most likely nominee.
Click to expand...

I think we're all a bit surprised that Steyer made it on the stage. Brilliant strategy on his part to dominate the SC/NV media markets. That said, it doesn't really alter my calculations.

Many seem to believe that the Soleimani fiasco will benefit Biden under the "steady hand" theory. While I acknowledge that factor, my take is different. I believe Tuesday's debate will be very important given that it is the final debate before Iowa votes. It will be the most important debate yet by a large margin.

Barring any huge news before Tuesday, Iran/Iraq will be the focus of the first hour of the debate. Notice that there is only one candidate on that stage who supported the Iraq invasion: Joseph Biden Jr. All other candidates have standing to attack him and I think most of them will do so. Sanders in particular voted against the 2002 AUMF and has already telegraphed his attacks.

Biden will come prepared with a response, but his responses so far to that line of attack have been horrible, ranging from outright falsehoods to poor attempts at hair-splitting.

People who are now confidently predicting that Biden will be the nominee should try to imagine what happens if Biden takes 4th in Iowa.
 
Last edited:
Im liking warren as someone to fade right now, I layed her so am -2u on her atm, but will go bigger if she shortens prior to the debate, or if there's any other polls that show her stagnant or declining. can't fault a buttigieg play for a trade but could be risky if he gets overshadowed in the debate or if he drops in the polls even a little in Iowa. Klob could well shorten a tiny bit as she is fairly consistent with her decent debate performances even if they aren't really showing much affect in the polls, so i might hit her odds small for a little trade also, but it's a case of getting out of the trade quickly if her odds drop.

Really don't get bloomberg's odds, currently down to 8.8 on the exchange, i can't really see a scenario in which he won't drift back out to well over 10.0+ after the debates with all the focus being no where near him.
Not to be pro conspiracy here but i think it is worth thinking of the possibility however likely or unlikely that these odds on him are being weighed down by possibly betting his own line. just by fact of the relatively small amount of money that can alter the odds on some candidates.

I have giant positions on bernie and biden now yet it feels very strange given their respective red flags, and I'm unsure what to do with them tbh. I need to think about that some more, but I'll be ready to lay them if warren or pete somehow start to regain momentum. laying both reduces the amount of value lost on both also, while also reducing liability on ppl like bloomberg, warren and pete which i love. got a free +£500 on the field i can use to bet the top candidates also which I'll save until the race becomes clearer.
 
Forgot to mention that the Iowa DM Register poll is coming out tomorrow. That might give some clarity. Mark Shields calls it "the gold standard" for Iowa polling. It's been two months since that one was released. Last time it was

Buttigieg 25
Warren 16
Sanders 15
Biden 15


It will be interesting to see if Biden has actually rebounded or if his uptick in the polling average is just the result of granularity. Important to note also that the results of this poll will affect the candidates' debate strategy on Tuesday. If Buttigieg's lead has grown he's going to take even more incoming fire than last time.

My positions haven't changed since September:


April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
September 20 Peter Buttigieg +2026 $493.58
September 25 Elizabeth Warren +123 $4268
 
Aldo4Ever said:
. That said, it doesn't really alter my calculations.
Click to expand...

I think Bloomberg's entry greatly reduced Buttigieg's chances of snatching the nomination, his timing was especially unfortunate for Buttigieg, just when he was getting attention, Bloomberg took the spotlight.

I love conspiracy theories, and I am convinced, given Bloomberg's strategy, he is running to stop Bernie. Warren as well is functioning as a spoiler, intentional or not.

Bloomberg will take up Biden's slack and prevent Bernie from winning.

I may lay Bernie at some point, but only after I think his odds have peaked.

I think i will add 1u on bernie, i think his line will continue to shorten for a while.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,271,416
Messages
57,715,787
Members
175,817
Latest member
JamesToney44

Share this page

Back
Top