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Political Betting Thread

SeraldoOrtiz said:
@rev0lver @longway

At this point, who do you see as the most likely Democratic nominee?
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Biden or Sanders. AT LEAST in the sense that one will win a plurality. Whatever the DNC would do in a contested convention is up in the air. I don't give Buttigieg a chance, and I think Warren is slowly on her way out.

I genuinely think there's a chance that Sanders will outperform the polling. Young people are more politically motivated than ever, and support Sanders by a pretty wide margin. But they're always undersampled in polling, which is technically the correct method by historical results, but I think there are variables here that can change things.

Also, imagine a scenario where Warren drops out shortly before Iowa and endorses Sanders? That would be a huge play to block Biden. Not saying it's gonna happen, but if her numbers keep shrinking, I think she's rational enough to realize when she's not gonna win.

In the end though, it's not about who I want to win, and I have to go with the data. Biden's slip has taken a long time if it's really gonna happen nationally. So I can't deny his chance here.
 
so trump is on course to be around 1.9 for the presidential race based solely on him presumably getting the republican nomination. trump gop nomination is 1.16 atm, down from around 1.26 about 2-3 weeks ago. this suggests he is gaining favor of the market in other areas, whether it's impeachment popularity or polls or something else. if this continues he could shorten below 1.9 in a matter of weeks.
 
rev0lver said:
Biden or Sanders. AT LEAST in the sense that one will win a plurality. Whatever the DNC would do in a contested convention is up in the air. I don't give Buttigieg a chance, and I think Warren is slowly on her way out.

I genuinely think there's a chance that Sanders will outperform the polling. Young people are more politically motivated than ever, and support Sanders by a pretty wide margin. But they're always undersampled in polling, which is technically the correct method by historical results, but I think there are variables here that can change things.

Also, imagine a scenario where Warren drops out shortly before Iowa and endorses Sanders? That would be a huge play to block Biden. Not saying it's gonna happen, but if her numbers keep shrinking, I think she's rational enough to realize when she's not gonna win.

In the end though, it's not about who I want to win, and I have to go with the data. Biden's slip has taken a long time if it's really gonna happen nationally. So I can't deny his chance here.
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agreed, currently i think it's between biden/sanders as things stand. and i have most of my profit on these 2, and that warren/buttigieg will struggle to maintain/regain momentum. i think time is beginning to run out for these 2. pete i think will struggle to become widely popular enough to get a real boost in the national polls. I'm unconvinced if sanders can actually get the numbers of young people out to vote though that will translate to a victory. social media during the UK election had the market fooled that the conservatives would fail to gain a majority, there was a lot posted about the high number of young people out voting but was absolutely not reflected (as far as i know) in the results. there could be a similar thing happening with sanders, although i think young ppl will be more inclined to vote in the US.

I recently said this is the beginning of the end for biden and im still thinking it very well could be but im not sure it will show for a bit longer yet, i think the possibility of him or hunter being called to testify for the impeachment shit is inflating his odds for the nomination, im not confident however to bet against him just yet as there's still a good chance voters are crazy enough to pick him, and there's plenty of room for his odds to shorten. probably going to start scaling out of my positions and freeroll all my bets in the next few days as it's all still so uncertain, so it'd be dumb not to take the money now (especially when my predictions are contradicting my bets), but with an eye to get back in at any time.
 
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rev0lver said:
I'm still not seeing the data backing that up. Impeachment support is still about where it's been since the proceedings started, which I'll repeat is many points above Trump's approval rating. If anything there's just been marginal fluctuations here and there.
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When impeachment was announced at start of oct, support for impeachment peaked. During the period the dnc controlled the impeachment process support has declined or at best stayed static. Rcp snd 538 show both, respectively. But this is not good. If you cant get more people onboard as so-called evidence is produced, you have lost. And this is national polling, in swing state impeachment polls badly already.

Now, trump, or at least the senate gop will control the process. They are now in a great position to make their case.

Currently 1 dem has come out against imleachment, and another has changed to the gop bc of it.

Trump approval is back at long term highs.

If at this stage the dnc are not winning, they have already lost, as this where they have put on their best performance.
 
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Georgio94 said:
I don't think I've gotten your take on Bloomberg yet. Again, I think he'll be a top five finisher but is unlikely to win. What do you think?

Edit: also forgot to mention I disagree with you about Warren. I think she is a good candidate despite some ridiculous mistakes and she will finish in the top four.
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On Bloomberg - he's wasting his money. He's possibly the most disliked candidate in the race even if he has some support. He has absolutely nothing interesting from a policy standpoint. And people are starting to have more awareness and distaste for politicians trying to buy elections. This is the most blatant form of that. There's no mass appeal to be had, and he can't even get into the debates without individual donors. Yeah he's worked his way to a few % in the polls, but beating out Amy Klobuchar's 3% with $100mil worth of ads seems like a pretty low bar for success. I don't have tv at my place, but my parents tell me about how the constant barrage of Bloomberg ads is just starting to get annoying lol

On Warren - I think she's a great candidate who shot herself in the foot. I remember visiting my family back in January and telling them Warren should run and she'd do very well. They pretty much laughed at me and didn't take it seriously. But she practically sabotaged her own campaign. Personally I blame her staff more than her, as she's acted less and less like her genuine self, and altering her ideas and talking points to appear more "moderate". Sure she'll finish in the top 4, but that doesn't mean anything.
 
longway said:
When impeachment was announced at start of oct, support for impeachment peaked. During the period the dnc controlled the impeachment process support has declined or at best stayed static. Rcp snd 538 show both, respectively. But this is not good. If you cant get more people onboard as so-called evidence is produced, you have lost. And this is national polling, in swing state impeachment polls badly already.

Now, trump, or at least the senate gop will control the process. They are now in a great position to make their case.

Currently 1 dem has come out against imleachment, and another has changed to the gop bc of it.

Trump approval is back at long term highs.

If at this stage the dnc are not winning, they have already lost, as this where they have put on their best performance.
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It's all speculation on both our parts, but I genuinely do think the dems can win big on the senate trial with the right messaging. Most polls I've gone into find that a majority of Americans think Trump did something wrong (whether illegal or grossly inappropriate). There's just some within that grouping who think he should be impeached for it, and some who don't. If this isn't about actually removing Trump from office, the dems can win there. Dems will also still get their say in the senate trial, just not the vote.

Impeachment support has been far ahead of impeachment support for Bill Clinton. And Nixon only saw higher impeachment support a few days before he resigned.

On the dem who's switching - he made that decision like 2 days after a poll came out showing massive pushback from dems in his district. He would get clobbered in the primary if he didn't switch parties. I don't think impeachment votes would affect congressmen in their general elections much if it all. It's just the primaries that are obviously going to be an issue if a dem votes no or a republican votes yes.
 
rev0lver said:
but I genuinely do think the dems can win big on the senate trial with the right messaging.
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Dnc is now considering not sending articles to senate as they obviously dont share your optimism. They are beginning to realise they are in a trap and are looking for a way out.

Could be the right move for them. Vote for impeachment then claim the senate is too unfair to hold a trial.

They are petrified.

 
Biden wants the nomination. Its game on afahic. As a Trump supporter all I can say is Go Biden! And No Malarky in that remark. If he wins the nomination I will get the biggest profit too.

 
longway said:
Dnc is now considering not sending articles to senate as they obviously dont share your optimism. They are beginning to realise they are in a trap and are looking for a way out.

Could be the right move for them. Vote for impeachment then claim the senate is too unfair to hold a trial.

They are petrified.

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Where are you seeing that? Rubin is a conservative commentator who has nothing to do with the DNC. Dems can do what they're doing and speak out about the senate being unfair and obstructing the process.
 
rev0lver said:
Where are you seeing that? Rubin is a conservative commentator who has nothing to do with the DNC. Dems can do what they're doing and speak out about the senate being unfair and obstructing the process.
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That was the second tweet about it in my feed. This was the first. I cant remember now if it I heard about it elsewhere.

 
The imfarcement doesn't seem to have changed Trump's odds of winning the next GE. Now at +100 shortened from +150 just a few weeks ago. I now have 22U on his re-election the majority around +145 or more.
 
as predicted biden's odds have shortened a good amount the last couple days, made a nice trade there. buttigieg's campaign seems in trouble now, not a great debate performance s far, and he's out to 10.0 on the night.
 
Trump campaign ad. These dnc loons are rank amateurs. Nah, i take that back they are just rank. Save bernie, gabbard and yang anyway.

 
feels like political exhaustion has set in at this point in the US, good time to trade , expecting a renewed focus after the new year.
 
almost done scaling out of my bets for the dem nomination, currently im doing pretty well:

Biden: +13u
Warren: +8.25u
Sanders: +9u
Buttigieg: -2.3u
Bloomberg: -13u
Shillary: -14.7u
Yang: +3u
Klob: -9u
Michelle obama: -14.7u
Patrick: -8.7u
Harris +27.2u
The field: mostly +10u

Current Prices (Betfair Exchange)

Total matched: £3,371,288

Biden: 3.45
Warren: 6.0
Sanders: 5.7
Buttigieg: 9.8
Bloomberg: 12.0
Hillary: 20.0
Yang: 36.0


Now i'll just try to reduce my big liabilities(most importantly on hillary/bloomberg) to free up some of the trapped bankroll. i'll probably put a little on buttigieg too just to cover all my bases as he's been drifting in the last few days. I think Biden has more room to shorten closer to 3.0, especially considering how the market overreacted with warren/harris, especially warren where she went close to even money. a poll or 2 with biden still close to 30% will do the trick i think. so i will add a little more to him at this price.
 
This is why I think Trump is an incredible strategist. He understands how to manipulate public opinion to his advantage even though he operates in an incredibly toxic environment.

 
The dnc is terrified of bernie and they should be, if the progressives take over they will destroy it as thoroughly as the momentum group (uk commie nutjobs) destroyed the labour party in the uk.

Obama wants warren to be the spoiler.

 
Meanwhile in the dnc bunker, increasingly desperate and delusional dims flail around for a superweapon that will save them from the looming electoral disaster unfolding before their eyes. At the same time, their party is under threat from within.

They want to impeach Pence now. lol the farce continues. The never-ending impeachment.

https://www.newsweek.com/adam-schif...dence-jennifer-williams-cover-succeed-1478201
 
Looks like Bloomberg has found a way around campaign contribution limits to help Trump win in 2020 and will probably spend a $1 billion doing so.

He has not only already scuppered Buttigieg’s chance of winning the nomination, he has made it much more expensive for other democratic candidates to buy airtime.

Biden is now almost inevitable.

Thanks Bloomberg! You and Shrillary have done wonders for Trump.

https://nypost.com/2019/12/27/michael-bloombergs-massive-ad-spending-greatly-affecting-tv-markets/
 
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