Political Betting Thread

^ this such a tough race to call.

Bloomberg must have been called in. Of the top 3. Warren and biden are imploding. The dnc will not allow sanders the nomination, imo. Well, Warren is imploding, Biden is just lost somewhere between the 1950s to 1970s.

Buttigieg lacks national stature? For now anyway.

This primary is a glorious clusterfcuk of epic proportions.

Bloomberg swooping in is just icing on this multi layered fcuk up. I love it.

Personally i think the dnc should just concede the 2020 election and save everyone the hassle.
 
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^ this such a tough race to call.

Bloomberg must have been called in. Of the top 3. Warren and biden are imploding. The dnc will not allow sanders the nomination, imo. Well, Warren is imploding, Biden is just lost somewhere between the 1950s to 1970s.

Buttigieg lacks national stature? For now anyway.

This primary is a glorious clusterfcuk of epic proportions.

Bloomberg swooping in is just icing on this multi layered fcuk up. I love it.

Personally i think the dnc should just concede the 2020 election and save everyone the hassle.
I'm not sure Elizabeth Warren is imploding, but I think her recent drop off shows that her rise was a bit "soft". She's a good candidate, but you have the real thing (Sanders) running at the same time. DC cosmopolitan types jumped on her as the flavor of the month. Still, I think she has a lot of staying power as the premiere "wonk" in the race.

I also think Bloomberg's entrance will hurt Biden and maybe also Buttigieg. Nate Silver and others are pointing out that Bloomberg wasn't polling that highly back when he was included in the polls---I think that's going to change. I think he could mop up 8% of the vote, which could completely change the outcome of the race. I'm wondering if anyone thinks he has what it takes to win.
 
^ lets see about warren. I am betting her support will continue deflate. Come back is more difficult given she has handed over so much material to her opponents to attack her with too.
 
^ lets see about warren. I am betting her support will continue deflate. Come back is more difficult given she has handed over so much material to her opponents to attack her with too.
Her current RCP average is 20.6%. I don't expect it to decline much more. I'd bet it won't drop below 16%.
 
I think once bernie or warren eventually pulls out, their support for the other one will push them over the edge, despite the surprising difference in their core voter base. but I'm far from extremely positive about this. i have a hard time seeing bloomberg making any real waves towards seriously becoming a front-runner, but he can definitely cause some waves with soaking up some votes possibly from biden and more centrist candidates. I think he's entered too late and will get called out on being a republican to become mayor. he's old as fuck also. he could impact the odds on the others too a bit. he's currently at 14.0 ish on betfair, another option to bet against and trade for a bit of extra value on the field. hillary's been slowly drifting also at a similar price and I've reduced a decent amount of liability/increasing profit(relative for such large odds) on the field from laying/scalping her odds.

I'm surprised that overall the picture seems to be getting murkier by the day rather than edging towards a candidate that is going to establish themselves as the nominee, but really i shouldn't be surprised considering how much of a clusterfuck it is like longway said.
 
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a multi billionaire entering the race will help solidify some of bernie/warren's possible voters that are undecided atm, giving the 2 candidates an easy target for what they feel is wrong with the political system
 
Her current RCP average is 20.6%. I don't expect it to decline much more. I'd bet it won't drop below 16%.

You could be right, but it should mean her odds will get much wider than now. I hope so anyway. If you have a plan that costs $52 trillion, you dont publish it until you get the nomination. Its just common sense. She is making very basic errors in judgement.

I need to look up the demographics of her support.
 
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I think once bernie or warren eventually pulls out, their support for the other one will push them over the edge, despite the surprising difference in their core voter base. but I'm far from extremely positive about this. i have a hard time seeing bloomberg making any real waves towards seriously becoming a front-runner, but he can definitely cause some waves with soaking up some votes possibly from biden and more centrist candidates. I think he's entered too late and will get called out on being a republican to become mayor. he's old as fuck also. he could impact the odds on the others too a bit. he's currently at 14.0 ish on betfair, another option to bet against and trade for a bit of extra value on the field. hillary's been slowly drifting also at a similar price and I've reduced a decent amount of liability/increasing profit(relative for such large odds) on the field from laying/scalping her odds.

I'm surprised that overall the picture seems to be getting murkier by the day rather than edging towards a candidate that is going to establish themselves as the nominee, but really i shouldn't be surprised considering how much of a clusterfuck it is like longway said.

Yeah, there is a curious dynamic there, both are trying to occupy the same political space, but a core part of warren support - liberal wine moms will never forgive bernie. And bernie bros similarly cant handle warren's fakeness.

But if they got together they could win the nomination. If one pulled out, it would cause quite a bit of rancor between their core support groups.
 
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_110619/

Recent monmouth polling on trump favourability and % who want him re-elected.

Both have improved since the last poll a month ago, but within margin of error.
Oct 42/55% reelected/replaced
Sept 39/57

Favourability is 44/54

Democrat favourability

Joe Biden: 43 / 50 percent
Bernie Sanders: 41 / 54 percent
Elizabeth Warren: 42 / 44 percent
Kamala Harris: 27 / 46 percent
Pete Buttigieg: 27 / 34 percent

All of them showing slightly lower favourability since the previous month.

Biden used to have much higher favourability ratings even a few months ago.

Bloomberg entry is a sign that the dnc is now flailing around like a drunk on ice skates.

3 years of screaming about how terrible trump is and they cant even find someone who can run against him. Embarrassing.
 
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Bloomberg in?

Should make a difference but how big and in which directions?

First guess is it hurts Biden.

It gets worse:




Me on July 3 (five months ago):



@Joedaman55 thoughts?

My Current bets (Democratic nomination):


April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
September 20 Peter Buttigieg +2026 $493.58
September 25 Elizabeth Warren +123 $4268


Not sure the Bloomberg entry does much, he has name recognition in the Northeast but I still think Biden beats everyone pretty good there. I think the DNC doesn’t see a candidate that can beat Trump and they’re just trying a bunch of tests to see what sticks. They pushed Kamala early to be the woman version of Obama (great article on this about the implosion of this candidate), Pete scores well in the Middle of America but does terrible everywhere else, Sanders/Warren are pushing socialism which has no shot in the general election, and Biden has aging issues. Biden seems like the choice and he reminds me a ton of Bob Dole and John Kerry when they ran. It’ll go down as a historically bad candidate.

The Republican Primary was pretty easy to pick for me in 2015/2016, I won a couple grand on the 2016 Republican and presidential election (I wanted to throw down $10K on it online when Trump was trading at like 4.5 to 1 but I can’t have my name tied into betting politics). If people take the emotion out of things and look at Trump’s technique/methods, he may be the strongest presidential candidate ever in a political competition. His biggest issue is womanizing in the past but I’ve never seen a president able to control attention and news cycles like this guy, it’s insane.
 
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Bloomberg isn't going to get anywhere in this race. He's exactly what most democratic voters don't want. However, for the small percent that for some reason do like him, it'll probably pull away votes from Biden/Buttigieg, which could throw a couple percentage points in Sanders' or Warren's direction.

I'd give Bloomberg approximately 0 chance at winning any state in the primary. I don't see how this benefits the DNC unless they're trying to create a contested convention
 
The Republican Primary was pretty easy to pick for me in 2015/2016

It should've been fairly obvious by mid-late 2015 that Trump was going to win the nomination. But at the time, pundits on both sides were talking about how terrible the republican field was and how much of a joke it was that Donald Trump was polling at the top. Some people are criticizing the democrat field now, but in a few months from now, the eventual winner could look a lot stronger.

Seemed like most right-wing media and right-wing politicians were anti-Trump until he won the nomination. They didn't really get behind him until it was Trump vs Hillary. The loser of the establishment vs progressives will end up uniting behind the eventual nominee in the same way.

Side note - I remember in July 2015, sitting in a hotel room at an event with my friends, telling them that Trump's going to win the republican primary, and that means the democrats can actually nominate a real left-winger like Sanders without the usual fears of going "too left". I thought they could push him as a counterweight to far-right rhetoric and he could pull an easy W with how much of the country hated Trump. Boy was I naive about what the DNC actually wants.
 
So for you Trump lovers... are you guys hammering him to pardon a Turkey? Opened -140 at Bovada and exploded to -200 already.
 
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It should've been fairly obvious by mid-late 2015 that Trump was going to win the nomination. But at the time, pundits on both sides were talking about how terrible the republican field was and how much of a joke it was that Donald Trump was polling at the top. Some people are criticizing the democrat field now, but in a few months from now, the eventual winner could look a lot stronger.

Seemed like most right-wing media and right-wing politicians were anti-Trump until he won the nomination. They didn't really get behind him until it was Trump vs Hillary. The loser of the establishment vs progressives will end up uniting behind the eventual nominee in the same way.

Side note - I remember in July 2015, sitting in a hotel room at an event with my friends, telling them that Trump's going to win the republican primary, and that means the democrats can actually nominate a real left-winger like Sanders without the usual fears of going "too left". I thought they could push him as a counterweight to far-right rhetoric and he could pull an easy W with how much of the country hated Trump. Boy was I naive about what the DNC actually wants.

Won most of my money on bets with friends that had their degree in political science or worked in government. Most of my bets occurred in December where people still had Cruz and Rubio as the likely winners. Most people didn’t put him as the serious front runner until the South Carolina Primary.
 
seems plausible bloomberg could be running to try and take warren/bernie down to avoid the possible extra taxes. but at the same time it would just take votes away from biden. maybe he will just attack them, concede and then support the centrist with his perceived best chance at the time. either way the current odds on him seem way too short. he's down to 13.5 on betfair at the time of writing this.

https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111

Warren: 2.96
Biden: 5.3
Buttigieg 7.4
Bernie: 9.4
Hillary: 22.0
Yang: 32.0
Harris: 75.0

Buttigieg seems too short considering his poll numbers, the market could be ppl anticipating biden slipping up and taking his place as the dnc's preferred choice. regret not betting much more when he was in the 20.0-30.0 range, really didn't think he would shorten this much. warren slipped some more this week but seems to be pretty stable at around 3.0. biden has shortened a couple times to 4.7ish but always drifts back fairly quickly, the market seems to be losing faith in him. hillary obviously drifting but slower than anticipated, bloomberg should push her out a bit more in the next day or 2. bernie drifting in the alst few days also.
 
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All the top candidates seem unelectable. I think buttigieg potentially Trump's toughest match up, but Bloomberg makes his path more difficult. Or does it mean that biden is going to drop out?

Currently, Bloomberg opens up a power play at the convention by the progressive wing. A sanders-warren team up makes sense.

Time to add to my Trump re-election bet. I cant believe he is still at plus odds. Christmas has come early this year.
 
Harris back on the warpath. I can't bother to watch the whole thing. I do expect her numbers in Iowa to improve somewhat given her big investment there. As I've said from the beginning, I don't consider her a serious contender.

Attacks Elizabeth Warren for "taking away people's private plan options" on health insurance. Says her plan is better in part because 10 year transition is better than four year transition.




======================

I think a minor Harris comeback (~4%) in Iowa would affect the race. I think it's going to happen given that she's pouring so many resources into IA now and is refocusing her messaging. Also the Senate will hold impeachment hearings in the week leading up to the IA caucus so Harris will get TV time to play prosecutor (@Joedaman55). Who would she hurt? Probably (as we've said before) Elizabeth Warren and possibly Biden. Would be good for Buttigieg and/or Sanders.

I still need to see more evidence that Bloomberg is in this to win this. He has flirted with this so many times before. If he's serious, I think this changes things a lot. He has $50 billion and I think he will appeal to a lot of Democrats (doesn't mean he will be the first choice of many of them). If he's in it to win it, he will pour 10s of millions, maybe more, into ad markets in the Super Tuesday states. I think this hurts Biden the most.
 
Just heard an interesting take. Once, if, impeachment reaches the senate, it will hinder sanders and warren`s ability to campaign as they have to spend time on the impeachment farce instead. And trump could get mitch to drag it out. That will really piss off the bernie bros, and it was the progressives who were pushing for it in the first place.

It gives trump so much leeway to further manipulate the dnc primaries.

The progressives are like children, no thought given to consequences, god help us if these guys get one of their number into the presidency.

The dnc is a joke. Their guard are corrupt and useless, the new guard is straight up crazy.

I hope people like tulsi and yang rebuild the dnc, like trump is changing the gop.
 
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