Political Betting Thread

[rev0lver]

I've been thinking about Biden quite a bit these past two days. I noted that the new NY Times/Siena poll has his support at 2% in Iowa among those < 45 years old, yet he's still in the top four.

This isn't just in Iowa, there's a WILD difference between old and young voters on the nominee. Honestly I think youth turnout is being underestimated this time around. Oversampling or giving more weight to older voters is technically the correct thing to do based on election data. But political engagement among young people seems to be at an all-time high, and there's a lot of emotions heading into 2020, both in anti-Trump sentiment and in favor of candidates who they believe can have positive impacts for them. I wouldn't be surprised if we see either Sanders or Warren outperform the polls in some of these states.

Also not-that-serious-sidenote but I absolutely hate thinking about Pete Buttigieg's name as Peter Buttigieg

 

[waiguoren]

NBC/WSJ poll out today (Democratic nomination, national)

Biden 27 (-4%)
Warren 23 (-2%)
Sanders 19 (+5%)
Buttigieg 6 (-1%)
Klobuchar 5 (+3%)
Harris 4 (-1%)
Yang 3 (-1%)
Gabbard 2 (+1%)

Link to poll


Second-choice:

Warren 24
Biden 15
Sanders 14
Buttigieg 12
Harris 9
....


85% say they are satisfied with the Democratic field.

 

[waiguoren]

I think Sanders is going to win Michigan again.

 

[waiguoren]

 

[waiguoren]

Bookmaker Odds (nomination)

Elizabeth Warren +148
Biden +340
Buttigieg +527
Sander +650
Hillary Clinton +943
Andrew Yang +1765
Kamala Harris +4800




Bookmaker (Iowa caucus)

Elizabeth Warren -132
Buttigieg +295
Sanders +500
Biden +520
....

 

[waiguoren]

Castro on life support

Julián Castro to lay off New Hampshire, South Carolina teams

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/04/julian-castro-layoff-new-hampshire-south-carolina-065797

 

[longway]

Trump hypothetical match-ups against the big 3 democrat hopefuls in the key swing states. Voters are now beginning to separate the nominees. It looks bad for the DNC.

I find it hard to believe that Biden will get the nod, but with 85% of DNC primary voters satisfied with the choices, well, I guess he could win it.

Biden does best against Trump; Warren the worst.

It could just mean that people are still not paying attention yet, and Biden's name recognition is all that we are seeing here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/upshot/trump-biden-warren-polls.html

 

[rev0lver]

Trump hypothetical match-ups against the big 3 democrat hopefuls in the key swing states. Voters are now beginning to separate the nominees. It looks bad for the DNC.

I find it hard to believe that Biden will get the nod, but with 85% of DNC primary voters satisfied with the choices, well, I guess he could win it.

Biden does best against Trump; Warren the worst.

It could just mean that people are still not paying attention yet, and Biden's name recognition is all that we are seeing here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/upshot/trump-biden-warren-polls.html

Honestly, this probably is the case. Name recognition is extremely valuable at this point in the cycle. We here are paying close attention to this election, but a large chunk of the country isn't even watching the debates, just getting bits of info here and there. Someone living under a rock for the past 4 years is gonna know who our former VP is and have a general idea of what he stands for. It's common to see someone like Cory Booker, a generally inoffensive candidate who should perform as well as a Buttigieg-type, show poor performances compared to the top bunch because people don't know him if they're not truly following the race.

Also love seeing another MSM article showing data that's blatantly including Bernie Sanders in the mix, and make the entire article about Warren and Biden.

 

[rev0lver]

Bookmaker (Iowa caucus)

Elizabeth Warren -132
Buttigieg +295
Sanders +500
Biden +520
....

Just curious, do books end up putting lines out for every state? I'd expect Iowa but there's some plays I'd want to make if other states pop up closer to primary dates.

Sanders taking WV would be a fun play, considering he won that state in a landslide in 2016. Yet we have Joe Manchin going on record as being extremely anti-Sanders and it being perceived as red-territory, so I could see him get heavy value there. Maybe won't be worth it since it's later in the voting season, though.

 

[longway]

Honestly, this probably is the case. Name recognition is extremely valuable at this point in the cycle. We here are paying close attention to this election, but a large chunk of the country isn't even watching the debates, just getting bits of info here and there. Someone living under a rock for the past 4 years is gonna know who our former VP is and have a general idea of what he stands for. It's common to see someone like Cory Booker, a generally inoffensive candidate who should perform as well as a Buttigieg-type, show poor performances compared to the top bunch because people don't know him if they're not truly following the race.

Also love seeing another MSM article showing data that's blatantly including Bernie Sanders in the mix, and make the entire article about Warren and Biden.

On my twitter timeline, bernie bros and hos are pissed off with Warren. They think she is running as a spoiler to stop Bernie from winning.

 

[rev0lver]

On my twitter timeline, bernie bros and hos are pissed off with Warren. They think she is running as a spoiler to stop Bernie from winning.

As much of a Bernie bro I am myself, I'd strongly disagree with them there. A lot of it probably comes from a lack of real familiarity with Warren by that camp prior to this race. I've followed her since she helped set up the CFPB. She's absolutely true to what she's stood for, especially when it comes to economic issues, and has fought extremely hard in her roles. My problem with her is that she just doesn't have all the right vision beyond that (in my view), even if she might have good intentions. And has potential gaffes and consistency issues (she was a republican for half her life) compared to someone like Bernie Sanders. Small point - she has also historically been anti-gambling, and you know what forum I'm on right now.

I have little doubt that she's running for the right reasons. She actually announced before Bernie, who I even questioned whether or not would run this time around. I get why people have been paranoid in a period of blatant bias and favoritism by the DNC and the MSM. But if you're in the progressive camp, and Bernie were to end up losing regardless of her, Warren's pretty much the best compromise you could get.

 

[longway]

^ It was something about her M4A plan or lack of one. They accused her coming up with a shoddy rip-off of Bernie's plan. But its all good info for betting purposes.

 

[waiguoren]

New Monmouth poll out today (national)

Biden 23 (-2%)
Warren 23 (-5%)
Sanders 20 (+5%)
Buttigieg 9 (+4%)
Harris 5 (+0%)
Yang 3 (+1%)
Klobuchar 2 (+1%)

 

[waiguoren]

Just curious, do books end up putting lines out for every state? I'd expect Iowa but there's some plays I'd want to make if other states pop up closer to primary dates.

Sanders taking WV would be a fun play, considering he won that state in a landslide in 2016. Yet we have Joe Manchin going on record as being extremely anti-Sanders and it being perceived as red-territory, so I could see him get heavy value there. Maybe won't be worth it since it's later in the voting season, though.

Last time 5Dimes had lines for most of the primaries/caucuses. Caveat is that limits are super low. Bookmaker's doing "to win" limits of $1000 on the Iowa caucuses at the moment. No other primary/caucus lines available at BM right now.

 

[waiguoren]

@rev0lver I think I was making this point to you in a previous conversation. Sanders ceiling pretty low, but that might be okay for him.

 

[longway]

There is going to be a huge mess when this primary reaches convention stage. None of the front runners is strong enough to win outright, nor so weak can they easily be persuaded to concede. Does this mean that 2 will team up? Biden-Buttigieg or Sanders-Warren? The DNC super delegates will definitely prefer the first 2. Could even be a Warren-Buttigieg ticket. I think Sanders will be pushed out at the convention no matter what.

 

[longway]

Link to video that explains why Killary hates Tulsi and accused her of being a Russian asset.

Cliff notes: kamala is killary's bitch and Tulsi killed kamala's campaign.

 

[longway]

I think warren made a big mistake in releasing her m4a plan. The price tag alone is going to make people baulk. Imo this has most likely cost her the nomination.

If the primary process was fair, bernie would have a shot. But i think this means its between biden and buttigieg now.

 

[longway]

Decided to pull the trigger with a lay bet on Warren. First the DNA debacle, and now this. Both are self-inflicted. She is not ready for the big show, and that's saying something, considering one of her opponents is Biden. It's like having an open goal and instead of scoring you kick the ball off the field of play and run facefirst into a goal post. What was she thinking? Whenever she thinks she is making a big move, it a disaster.

 

[waiguoren]

Bloomberg in?

Should make a difference but how big and in which directions?

First guess is it hurts Biden.

It gets worse:




Me on July 3 (five months ago):

The dynamics of this race are more complicated than any race I can recall. This race appears very different to me than the 2015/6 Republican primary in terms of lacking a clear front-runner. I think Buttigieg is the only candidate with the potential to break away from the pack.

@Joedaman55 thoughts?

My Current bets (Democratic nomination):


April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
September 20 Peter Buttigieg +2026 $493.58
September 25 Elizabeth Warren +123 $4268