Political Betting Thread

[Scythe]

I'm on Buttigieg +1200 to win the presidency now as well, for odds, it's hard to imagine that getting much better. If he's capable of actually winning the nomination, which I still doubt, he'd be too well positioned to beat Trump.

And agree that Harris is quite inflated now, if Not Harris pops up somewhere at top pick odds in the next few months (like the -235 Not Biden from a week ago), might just arbitrage.

 

[rev0lver]

That would be interesting to observe. I perceive that there is a lot of corporate money opposing the Sanders agenda, and I wonder if that money could end up slanting coverage to undermine Sanders even on MSNBC and other anti-Trump platforms.

I just can't imagine seeing the democratic establishment preferring 4 more years of Trump to having a progressive in office, even if corporate money doesn't like the progressives. It seems like they care about defeating Trump a lot more than any actual policy objectives. And if Warren/Sanders are the nominee, they have to give them their support. Again, Trump was in a very similar position before he became the clear primary winner. Even Fox News wasn't totally on his side until it became clear he was winning the primary.

 

[Scythe]

It would follow that exact same protocol, especially for Bernie; they'll smear lightly until there's no other option. I'm finding it difficult to see a real path for him now, as he won't shift or pander and is constrained in the format by other candidates copying the most digestible portions of his platform.

 

[waiguoren]

I'm on Buttigieg +1200 to win the presidency now as well, for odds, it's hard to imagine that getting much better.

Which book? I looked for a line of that caliber a month ago but couldn't find it. It's the right play imo. He's the guy to smash Trump, and his toughest battle is the primary.

I just can't imagine seeing the democratic establishment preferring 4 more years of Trump to having a progressive in office, even if corporate money doesn't like the progressives. It seems like they care about defeating Trump a lot more than any actual policy objectives. And if Warren/Sanders are the nominee, they have to give them their support. Again, Trump was in a very similar position before he became the clear primary winner. Even Fox News wasn't totally on his side until it became clear he was winning the primary.

I think there's a high chance that if Sanders gets the nomination, MSNBC (for example) will bolster Sanders's campaign while continuing to undermine some of its key policy proposals (Medicare for All, non-interventionism).

You're definitely correct that it seems a lot of the big Democratic donors are "beat Trump at any cost".

It would follow that exact same protocol, especially for Bernie; they'll smear lightly until there's no other option. I'm finding it difficult to see a real path for him now, as he won't shift or pander and is constrained in the format by other candidates copying the most digestible portions of his platform.

Warren appears to be a thorn in his side, but it might actually be a benefit. Warren takes a lot from Harris imo. It's possible that without Warren in the race, Harris just runs away with this.

 

[Scythe]

Which book? I looked for a line of that caliber a month ago but couldn't find it. It's the right play imo. He's the guy to smash Trump, and his toughest battle is the primary.

It’s on 5dimes (+1100 on Bookmaker as well).

 

[longway]

Warren is the anointed candidate imo, it's all heavily rigged anyway. The people who really choose the DNC presidential candidate behind the scenes will find a way to push Warren over the finish line by hook or by crook. She will be portrayed as an 'outsider' candidate when the presidential campaign kicks off in the hope of capturing some of the Trump voters who switched from Obama.

I hedged my Warren bet with Harris before the debates, so all looking good now, even have a lay bet against Biden which I think will pay off nicely. Harris a dirtbag even by US political standards, just saying.

 

[waiguoren]

Warren is the anointed candidate imo, it's all heavily rigged anyway. The people who really choose the DNC presidential candidate behind the scenes will find a way to push Warren over the finish line by hook or by crook. She will be portrayed as an 'outsider' candidate when the presidential campaign kicks off in the hope of capturing some of the Trump voters who switched from Obama.

I hedged my Warren bet with Harris before the debates, so all looking good now, even have a lay bet against Biden which I think will pay off nicely. Harris a dirtbag even by US political standards, just saying.

I think the dirtbag perception places a ceiling on Harris's support. Smart guys in this thread disagree with me.

I don't believe in the 'DNC rigging' thing so much*. I think there was some of that last time (superdelegates, leaking debate questions), but the DNC has made a lot of concessions since.

I think Warren's been playing extremely smart politics recently. However, I think she will fade somewhat during the smaller debates as she is not a very forceful debater. If Booker or Harris want to get really nasty, they will play the Native American card on the debate stage.

The dynamics of this race are more complicated than any race I can recall. This race appears very different to me than the 2015/6 Republican primary in terms of lacking a clear front-runner. I think Buttigieg is the only candidate with the potential to break away from the pack.

*I do think MSM undermines Sanders consistently. Maybe there is a DNC connection there.

 

[Joedaman55]

I think the dirtbag perception places a ceiling on Harris's support. Smart guys in this thread disagree with me.

I don't believe in the 'DNC rigging' thing so much*. I think there was some of that last time (superdelegates, leaking debate questions), but the DNC has made a lot of concessions since.

I think Warren's been playing extremely smart politics recently. However, I think she will fade somewhat during the debates as she is not a very forceful debater. If Booker or Harris want to get really nasty, they will play the Native American card on the debate stage.

The dynamics of this race are more complicated than any race I can recall. This race appears very different to me than the 2015/6 Republican primary in terms of lacking a clear front-runner. I think Buttigieg is the only candidate with the potential to break away from the pack.

*I do think MSM undermines Sanders consistently. Maybe there is a DNC connection there.

Eh, I think it’s pretty similar to the 2015-2016 Republican primary, there is just no top tier candidates like Trump (although most people thought differently at the time, prolly still do now). Biden is similar to Bush as he is what the base wants but isn’t talented enough to be president. Cruz is like Bernie and Warren, both at the extremes of their party but no shot in a general election. Harris is like Rubio as sort of a moderate candidate and what the party wants as their future face (although Kamala is pandering to the extreme left and will shift right on policies soon to win the moderates). Pete is a more charismatic Kasich. Beto is like Christie, way overhyped by the media and not talented enough to stand a chance.

You take Trump out of the Republican race, I think Rubio wins. Trump took a bunch of his voters and he had no path after Trump started rolling.

 

[rev0lver]

Warren is the anointed candidate imo, it's all heavily rigged anyway. The people who really choose the DNC presidential candidate behind the scenes will find a way to push Warren over the finish line by hook or by crook. She will be portrayed as an 'outsider' candidate when the presidential campaign kicks off in the hope of capturing some of the Trump voters who switched from Obama.

I hedged my Warren bet with Harris before the debates, so all looking good now, even have a lay bet against Biden which I think will pay off nicely. Harris a dirtbag even by US political standards, just saying.

I'm not disagreeing with you that bias and manipulation exists, but how is it for Warren? If anything, it seems like she's one of the last candidates they'd want and corporate money would hate her. She's arguably been the most antagonistic with Wall Street of anyone in the field.

 

[waiguoren]

I'm not disagreeing with you that bias and manipulation exists, but how is it for Warren? If anything, it seems like she's one of the last candidates they'd want and corporate money would hate her. She's arguably been the most antagonistic with Wall Street of anyone in the field.

One could make the argument that the corporate money wants to "divide and conquer" the progressive vote. Prop up Warren for a while. Hope that the Sanders/Warren camps splinter. Later, after Sanders dies, kill Warren.

If I were Goldman Sachs or Aetna, that's basically the approach I would take. Of course the real story is more complicated.

 

[waiguoren]

Eh, I think it’s pretty similar to the 2015-2016 Republican primary, there is just no top tier candidates like Trump (although most people thought differently at the time, prolly still do now). Biden is similar to Bush as he is what the base wants but isn’t talented enough to be president. Cruz is like Bernie and Warren, both at the extremes of their party but no shot in a general election. Harris is like Rubio as sort of a moderate candidate and what the party wants as their future face (although Kamala is pandering to the extreme left and will shift right on policies soon to win the moderates). Pete is a more charismatic Kasich. Beto is like Christie, way overhyped by the media and not talented enough to stand a chance.

You take Trump out of the Republican race, I think Rubio wins. Trump took a bunch of his voters and he had no path after Trump started rolling.

Biden isn't what the base wants though. Maybe 40% of the Republican base wanted someone who would be strident on illegal immigration, and only Trump really fit that description. What does 40% of the Democratic base want, other than Trump out of office?

Disagree that Sanders and Warren have no shot in the general. Especially Sanders. Agree that Cruz had no chance. Clinton would have beaten him.

Kind of agree with the Harris/Rubio comparison, but I think Harris has way more stage presence than Rubio. She can make canned lines seem like a B list movie. Rubio turned into a robot with a glitch.

I kind of like the Kasich/Buttigieg comparison, but Buttigieg is way younger and more handsome, less baggage, speaks better, military experience, less political experience, and has the advantage of being a guy that almost all registered Democrats like (or will like) at a time when the Party is splintering.

 

[onC]

It’s on 5dimes (+1100 on Bookmaker as well).

Buttigieg for next president is +2100 on Betfair. Like ~1k$ available at over +1900.

Do you guys have any % estimations for his chances? I dont follow US politics enough.

 

[Joedaman55]

Biden isn't what the base wants though. Maybe 40% of the Republican base wanted someone who would be strident on illegal immigration, and only Trump really fit that description. What does 40% of the Democratic base want, other than Trump out of office?

Disagree that Sanders and Warren have no shot in the general. Especially Sanders. Agree that Cruz had no chance. Clinton would have beaten him.

Kind of agree with the Harris/Rubio comparison, but I think Harris has way more stage presence than Rubio. She can make canned lines seem like a B list movie. Rubio turned into a robot with a glitch.

I kind of like the Kasich/Buttigieg comparison, but Buttigieg is way younger and more handsome, less baggage, speaks better, military experience, less political experience, and has the advantage of being a guy that almost all registered Democrats like (or will like) at a time when the Party is splintering.

I guess it depends what you call the base. I still call the base the moderates controlling the money and media influence. If you consider the base the majority, it’s gone way left since the last election.

I think you’ll see moderates vote for Trump over a Bernie or Warren. Moderate Democrats prefer more government programs/funding but the more left side tax rate is probably too dangerous for them to vote for it. When McCain/Palin ran, I had a lot of Conservative friends vote for Obama over that ticket based on similar fears.

 

[Joedaman55]

Buttigieg for next president is +2100 on Betfair. Like ~1k$ available at over +1900.

Do you guys have any % estimations for his chances? I dont follow US politics enough.

For Pete, maybe 5%.

I have it 80% kamala, 15% Bernie and 5% Pete. I don’t think any of the others have a shot.

 

[waiguoren]

Buttigieg for next president is +2100 on Betfair. Like ~1k$ available at over +1900.

Do you guys have any % estimations for his chances? I dont follow US politics enough.

I'll say 25% to win the nomination and 75% to take the presidency if he wins the nomination. That makes 18.75%. Keep in mind I'm the most bullish person on Buttigieg here.

 

[waiguoren]

For Pete, maybe 5%.

I have it 80% kamala, 15% Bernie and 5% Pete. I don’t think any of the others have a shot.

He was asking the chance for him to be president though. You think Harris has an 80% chance to be president, or you misread?

 

[waiguoren]

Harris Backs Away From Busing As A Federal Mandate After Biden Attack

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/kamala-harris-busing-federal-mandate_n_5d1df665e4b04c48140fdc3f


I think the Harris backers should be concerned here and encourage them to read through some of the comments on that article. Harris is on the way to making herself a pariah with this stuff. I continue to believe that Harris's attacks were a kamikaze tactic. Will damage both Biden and herself in the end.

 

[Joedaman55]

He was asking the chance for him to be president though. You think Harris has an 80% chance to be president, or you misread?

Misread that, I’d say less than 0.5% chance.

 

[Joedaman55]

Harris Backs Away From Busing As A Federal Mandate After Biden Attack

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/kamala-harris-busing-federal-mandate_n_5d1df665e4b04c48140fdc3f


I think the Harris backers should be concerned here and encourage them to read through some of the comments on that article. Harris is on the way to making herself a pariah with this stuff. I continue to believe that Harris's attacks were a kamikaze tactic. Will damage both both Biden and herself in the end.

No worry here, it’s all about optics and most people that watched the debate already forgot what she was attacking him on. Most will just remember she commanded the stage, fought hard for something about racism, and Biden got angry and looked jumbled. She can also play the move that she forced him to address this issue if she hadn’t brought it up (I.e making it a win/win for her by using pacing/leading and a high ground maneuver). I can’t remember anything Bush and Trump argued about in 2016 but I do remember Trump utterly owning him.

Semantics and wordplay on stances don’t mean that much once people master the high ground maneuver.

 

[waiguoren]

No worry here, it’s all about optics and most people that watched the debate already forgot what she was attacking him on. Most will just remember she commanded the stage, fought hard for something about racism, and Biden got angry and looked jumbled. She can also play the move that she forced him to address this issue if she hadn’t brought it up (I.e making it a win/win for her by using pacing/leading and a high ground maneuver). I can’t remember anything Bush and Trump argued about in 2016 but I do remember Trump utterly owning him.

Semantics and wordplay on stances don’t mean that much once people master the high ground maneuver.

I think she's building both 1) a coalition of Democrats who think she would "prosecute Trump" on the debate stage 2) a coalition of Democrats who want almost "anyone but Harris". I think 2) is going to end up being pretty big, and I think this splintering favors Sanders, Warren, or Buttigieg.