Political Betting Thread

[Slohog]

Le Pen @ +350 is pretty decent. I took it for 1u.

I mean, I can't fault that, but it seems really hard for her to catch up in the heads up.

 

[Roads55]

anyone been keeping up on the FE? fillon seems to be outright mimicking trump's campaign strategies, polls have him like 6 /7 points behind the other 2, and la penn just launched a tirade against him: http://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-attacks-francois-fillon-as-man-who-loves-money/. his price immediately re-acted on the exchange, drifting back out too 5.8 atm from around 5.0

 

[waiguoren]

anyone been keeping up on the FE? fillon seems to be outright mimicking trump's campaign strategies, polls have him like 6 /7 points behind the other 2, and la penn just launched a tirade against him: http://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-attacks-francois-fillon-as-man-who-loves-money/. his price immediately re-acted on the exchange, drifting back out too 5.8 atm from around 5.0

Not following. Saw some lines with le Pen around +400. I thought Fillon had fallen off the map due to some scandals or something? And the favorite is someone called Marcon? Lol, help me

 

[Slohog]

I kind of gave up on it since my books lacked odds at some point or had limits. Fillon fucked up, he looked like the least corrupt mainstream guy and then it turns out he had given fake jobs to his family or something.

Macron seems like a weirdo, can't trust him.

 

[waiguoren]

My understanding is that Le Pen is favored to win the first round but expected to lose in a run-off vs. Macron.

 

[Roads55]

yeah fillon had given high paying jobs to his familly which they didn't actually do any work for. he was tied with la penn(in the odds) untill a couple days ago. then la penn launched a verbal attack on him and his odds drifted back out to 5.9ish. he's like 6/7 points behind in the polls i think, russia have stated he's actually winning the race lol. his wife is now officially being ivestigated for the fake jobs scandal which could damage him further. same patterns emerging as brexit/us election starting to emerge. I think the left will be more prepared for such an obvious strategy this time.

apparently melanchon had a very good performance this week and may possibly even overtake fillon in the first round. I'm not super involved in this at all yet as it's hard to gather information constantly trying to translate shit from french. la penn should win the 1st round but it could be tight, macron is presumed to beat her comfortably in the 2nd but I feel la penn could get a boost from non deciders and other groups as her core base is the strongest and most steadfast out of all the candidates.

 

[Roads55]

I don't see how fillon wins this currently, I've been laying his outright price waiting for some drifts to hedge. he has a lot of money behind him apparently but, I just can't see it.

 

[Roads55]

Not following. Saw some lines with le Pen around +400. I thought Fillon had fallen off the map due to some scandals or something? And the favorite is someone called Marcon? Lol, help me

I probably know the least about macron but at a spritely 39 years old he could appeal a lot more to the younger demographic, I think younger french voters are more invested and involved in the political process than UK or USA, but could be wrong.

 

[bruthead]

Took Trump to see out first term (assassination voids bet) on Betfair exchange at about +112 after their commission.

 

[Roads55]

I probably know the least about macron but at a spritely 39 years old he could appeal a lot more to the younger demographic, I think younger french voters are more invested and involved in the political process than UK or USA, but could be wrong.

lol yep very wrong:

https://www.ft.com/content/5119f9ac-08cb-11e7-97d1-5e720a26771b

wow 40% of young voters between 18-24 will vote for la penn according to this, macron trails way behind. the unemployment rate seems to be extremely high for this age group, could have a major effect on the results if they can be bothered to actually go vote.

 

[waiguoren]

Took Trump to see out first term (assassination voids bet) on Betfair exchange at about +112 after their commission.

Fucking awesome line.

 

[Roads55]

Fucking awesome line.

it's been around that for a while, it's a good little market to trade on the exchange, it fluctuates a little with everything trump does pretty much lol.

 

[Roads55]

melanchon surging in the polls, not all that far behind fillon now, his odds shortened from 30/1 to about 12/1 right now. no way the establishment let's him pick up to much support. la penn seems to be getting attacked a lot more, evident by her polling numbers, it's hard to cap altogether with all the worldwide events taking place that could possibly have some effect on ppl's views.

 

[waiguoren]

melanchon surging in the polls, not all that far behind fillon now, his odds shortened from 30/1 to about 12/1 right now. no way the establishment let's him pick up to much support. la penn seems to be getting attacked a lot more, evident by her polling numbers, it's hard to cap altogether with all the worldwide events taking place that could possibly have some effect on ppl's views.

Can you try? I have no betting interest here, just genuinely curious. I know that media analysis is often less than trustworthy in politics.

 

[Roads55]

Can you try? I have no betting interest here, just genuinely curious. I know that media analysis is often less than trustworthy in politics.

I'll try, I'm going to do plenty more reading up as it get's closer, pretty busy with the ufc this week and I'm travelling around europe also, so that might slow things down a little.

 

[Slohog]

Can you try? I have no betting interest here, just genuinely curious. I know that media analysis is often less than trustworthy in politics.

I can dig up the link at some point when I've got time, but I know I read a long article in some respected paper (like, not Breitbart or anything, but a center/leftish paper of some kind, might've been the Times or something like that) a few years back on how Le Penn was very favored by the gay community.

Basically her dad, who used to be the leader of the party, was a raging old-school homophobe but then it became a popular past time for a bunch of more extrem Islamic retards to beat up gay guys for kissing in public in parts of southern France. Overnight the new Le Penn got her self a gay hair stylist, kicked out anyone who said anything bad about gay guys and promised to keep the streets safe and suddenly she had higher polling numbers among HBTQ-voters then other voters.

I think that might be her ticket, if some retarded lowlife that looks even slightly muslim or liked a weird video posted by ISIS on Twitter 3 years ago does something bad that gets some news coverage she might pick up a couple of extra votes.

To lazy to do my due diligence on this election but I have a feeling that she'll have a hard-ish time winning without either that or a decent sized scandal by whoever gets to go up against her in the second round.

I don't think she's as good as Trump at finding creative paths to an election win by appealing to non-standard groups of voters, but she's definitely fairly good at grabbing opportunities. Not sure if she gets the opening, but if she gets it she can probably take it.

 

[waiguoren]

I don't think she's as good as Trump at finding creative paths to an election win by appealing to non-standard groups of voters, but she's definitely fairly good at grabbing opportunities. Not sure if she gets the opening, but if she gets it she can probably take it.

I didn't see much creativity from Trump at all. He lucked out that the electoral college was flippable due to the combination his long-standing mercantalism and Clinton's long-standing globalism. I can't think of an effective creative appeal to non-standard groups that he made which actually helped him win.

 

[Slohog]

Well for one thing he decided to spend a ton of his time and resources in the rust belt during the last weeks despite media, polling and a bunch of us in this thread thinking that was kind of wtf and a waste of time. Somehow he got those states and lost a few we thought he had a bigger chance in. Somehow the guy knew where to aim and did well due to it. Obviously those things you mention had a much bigger impact, but I still think he could've fucked it up very easy if he wasn't reasonably good about it.

I also think you could argue that he put up decent numbers with minorities, but that was mostly on Obama being much better at appealing to them then Hillary I think.

 

[waiguoren]

Well for one thing he decided to spend a ton of his time and resources in the rust belt during the last weeks despite media, polling and a bunch of us in this thread thinking that was kind of wtf and a waste of time. Somehow he got those states and lost a few we thought he had a bigger chance in. Somehow the guy knew where to aim and did well due to it. Obviously those things you mention had a much bigger impact, but I still think he could've fucked it up very easy if he wasn't reasonably good about it.

It was my belief that Trump wasn't doing many events in the rustbelt until the very end. I thought it was more of a last ditch effort. I don't believe significant rustbelt polling was available until the last 45 days or so.

 

[Slohog]

It was my belief that Trump wasn't doing many events in the rustbelt until the very end. I thought it was more of a last ditch effort. I don't believe significant rustbelt polling was available until the last 45 days or so.

Yea I'm to lazy to look it up but I know that in my mind Pennsylvania was lost and stuff like Michigan and whatever other state next to it went to Trump highly unlikely. I mean maybe it was a Yolo-allin, but either way it worked and it wasn't the traditional/obvious play. Or maybe they had additional polling information with better dept which somehow indicated that the rust belt was hist for some reason, but on the other hand the democrats did not take it seriously so I'm not sure about that.