Political Betting Thread

[Cord]

/pol is trying to meme Le Pen into presidency (thus she is considered by bookmakers) however they won't make it this time as language barrier won't make them influence French public opinion as they could with Trump. Furthermore for the same exact reason their insights on the current French candidates and contest are limited.

Therefore, I will bet 5u on Fillon @1.67 (above you can read a good analysis on him by Slohog).

 

[Slohog]

I agree with the Fillon bet but I really don't think internet memes was the reason Trump won.

The difference between Le Pen/Trump and Fillon/Clinton is that Le Pen is not an as good communicator as Trump and that Fillon is not the by far worst candidate for a major party in modern election history.

Not gonna be political here and it's ok to feel that Trump is the devil and whatnot, but I think it's a serious mistake to underestimate how good he is at winning elections and communicating with the correct target group. I think he was about two or three steps ahead of both the other republican candidates and the Clintons in strategy.

Lastly Fillions lead is bigger then it was in the US election, I think.

 

[waiguoren]

I think he was about two or three steps ahead of both the other republican candidates and the Clintons in strategy.

I don't really agree with this. He barely won and had the benefit of running against an extremely unlikable person from a divided incumbent party.

He also seriously lucked out in that the core of his economic message appealed to the very swing voters he needed to win the EC. This is luck and not planned; he has been calling loudly for protectionism/mercantilism since the 1980s when he wasn't even serious about running.

In general I see very little "strategy" in what Trump did in the sense of planning or scheming. His "strategy" was to soak up as much attention as possible while assaulting his opponents at every juncture...the same thing he always did as a businessman. I think Clinton had a lot more strategy (e.g., the pussy tape leak, GOTV) but in the end it wasn't enough.

 

[Slohog]

I dunno, I think a lot of the attacks was really well timed and thought out. His "nicknames" are fairly hilarious and he decided to put a lot of effort into "unwinnable" states which I personally called retarded but ended up winning him the election.

All these "Lying Ted", "Low energy Jeb" and "Crocked Hillary" nick names really stuck and was fairly genius.

Probably true that all the stuff he said as a civilian stuck with him now too, but at least he had the timing right (it probably wouldn't have worked vs Obama) and decided to go full himself rather then try to look like a guy running for office.

I'm not sure how much of it was contemplated and how much was luck, but he did a lot of small things right that most people probably would've fucked up.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Trump definitely had strategy. Can't link to it from work but just type in Trump CharismaOnCommand on youtube and they do a phenomenal breakdown of his political strategy

Those nicknames were def part of it

 

[Timurd123]

thread re-opened, betting discussion only for politics, no personal political agenda's permitted

I thought this forum might be headed toward a direction away from personal attacking 24/7, but I guess not. I hope your all so happy that Russia is attacking election systems around the world, got ur man elected, and won you $7.25.

I'm sure you all saw that retarded Comey letter coming in ur Fake-News driven 'capping analysis." please stay racist for me 'rille31', and adieu to the rest of you uneducated.

Theres more than enough political threads on here, keep it out of betting threads

 

[rille31]

some euro props


Will Donald Trump build a wall covering the entire US-Mexican border by the end of 2020? : yes +500

Donald Trump to be successfully impeached by the end of 2020 yes +500

Politics and Business - USA - US Presidential Election

lots of candidates maybe clinton +1400 or m obama +950

 

[Joseph Budden]

some euro props


Will Donald Trump build a wall covering the entire US-Mexican border by the end of 2020? : yes +500

Donald Trump to be successfully impeached by the end of 2020 yes +500

Politics and Business - USA - US Presidential Election

lots of candidates maybe clinton +1400 or m obama +950

michelle obama +950 seems worth a stab, but the 4 year wait. Fuck that

 

[vkram]

Ladbrokes are offering lines on what Trump will say during his inauguration speech.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/...ecials/trump-inauguration-specials/223139648/

Anything you guys like?

 

[Roads55]

put a bit on trump to say "tremendous" "folks or "incredible in his speech.

 

[Cord]

0.1u on China at 1.50 and Build a Wall at 3.00.

 

[Slohog]

I have problems with my Ladbrooks account but gun to my head I like UK and Brexit. Think he'll talk about stuff that's going well now and make this look like a new start for the country.

 

[waiguoren]

Who is the favorite to be new DNC chair? Any books offering lines?

 

[Barkus]

Should be plenty of elections and stuff to bet on this year, I can see bookmakers offering more odds on political events after the gigantic sums of money wagered on the US election.

there's the presidential election in france, the german federal election, article 50, and loads of trump related bets already up, amongst other things. I think with the variety of posters from different countries in here presents some good knowledge and potential edges where we can make some money.

usefull links:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics (links for rest of the world politics are on this page too)
https://smarkets.com/politics/world - some interesting markets here too
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
https://www.youtube.com/user/TheYoungTurks
https://www.betfair.com/exchange (politics is on the a-z on the left)

lemme know of any other links that will be helpful too, so I can add them.

PS: Just to make it clear now, bet's that we make have no link to our own political leanings and should not be viewed in that way.

www.predictit.org
A political prediction market with tonnes of political odds and active comments (lots of trolls and pump+dumpers though).

 

[iGnP]

If @Jack Scrapper had a son

 

[Joseph Budden]

If @Jack Scrapper had a son

Jesus fucking christ. Libs are some ridiculous people.

 

[rille31]

If @Jack Scrapper had a son

Im pretty sure that’s @Jack Scrapper

 

[Jack Scrapper]

That's a shame the way your football seasons turned out iLnP. You really tried convincing this forum that you knew Wtf u were talking about. Alas, no.

Also, Timurd123 (w/e the fuck that means) is an absolute punk.

 

[iGnP]

That's a shame the way your football seasons turned out iLnP. You really tried convincing this forum that you knew Wtf u were talking about. Alas, no.

Also, Timurd123 (w/e the fuck that means) is an absolute punk.

Save your money. Trump isn't going to be president.

Firstly, that little nugget that I quoted is priceless. Even with my down year in the NFL, I suspect I still have more respect ITT capping football than you do at anything.

Secondly, it's really fitting that you would not quote me or tag me in your post seeing as you're a passive aggressive little pussy

@EzFlyer dude I don't even mind getting yellows for this. No one wants this troll in here and he doesn't even contribute. I understand everything you've done w Robbie but I urge you to consider banning this twat. I'm sure @mkess101 @Joseph Budden @rille31 @SBJJ will agree w me on my stance on the subject

 

[Joseph Budden]

Even though I chuckled @ iLnP, I agree. Not sure i've ever seen Jack come into this section to do anything but fuck w ppl lol