Political Betting Thread

It's on Saturday. Trump back up to -300 in New Hampshire which is about right at this point.

He should be much higher according to the polls but I just don't trust his base or his ability to get through the next debate unscathed. His last debate was a high point. Now, he's coming off a loss and has been whining for Cruz's win to be nullified on Twitter.

What's worked for him while winning may burn him coming off a loss.
From the parts I watched, Trump had a strong debate performance. The media is saying that Rubio had a disastrous showing. I think Trump takes NH easily and is the most likely nominee.

In today's NH polls, Rubio is tied with Kasich for 2nd. Others such as Bush are close behind. What happens if Rubio places 4th?
 
Rubio destroyed himself, it was embarrassing. He recovered later, but the big moments are what get remembered. Definitely a bad moment for him. He's still the nomination favorite at 5dimes which speaks to the weakness of this field. In other years, I think he'd be out of the race for that performance.

Trump was just there, so that's a strong performance for him. Nobody went after him aside from Jeb, and that was a very short exchange. Cruz was completely placid here, don't know if he wants to avoid confrontation after winning Iowa but it was a non-performance for him. I would say that Jeb and Kasich came out of this one the best but it should be too little, too late for them. Although I don't think he looked the best, Trump wins just because it was fairly uneventful besides the Rubio plunge.

It's funny, Christie buried Rubio but it probably did absolutely nothing for him. He didn't make himself look good and I doubt he gained any voters.

I still don't think Trump's going to win once the field thins, but I have no idea who's going to be on the other side.
 
I still don't think Trump's going to win once the field thins, but I have no idea who's going to be on the other side.

The thinning of the field will be fascinating to watch.

One question is: where do the Bush, Kasich, Carson, Christie supporters go when their favorite candidate drops out? I think the Christie supporters will mostly go to Trump. Bush/Kasich supporters mostly to Rubio.

I don't see Cruz getting much more support than he has now, but he has enough support now to hang in it for a long time. When he eventually drops out, where would his supporters go?
 
It's difficult to correlate with polls, especially in this ridiculous race. Cruz actually ranks at the top for "2nd choice" in polls, Trump is 3rd. But these aren't huge %s that are in the bag for either. And there are large %s that would vote for anyone else over Cruz and Trump. Cruz has been trying to take Trump's voters (the anti-establishment) but I'm not really sure that Trump can successfully appeal to Cruz's base (the religious).

Rubio would seem to be a much better fit for that group. Trump has been divorced multiple times, has a wife that has done more scandalous posing than Megyn Kelly (which Trump tweet-shamed Kelly for, of course), and he opened a strip club only 2 years ago. It may be difficult to negotiate those voters over to his side, especially when his opponents have more connections with local church leaders (something Trump was trying to develop in Iowa).

Rubio placing 4th would hurt him monetarily because it means he got beat by... Jeb and Kasich? Right now a lot of Jeb's money is poised to move over to Rubio's campaign. It also opens him up as a whipping boy for these guys, and he needs to get more ready for the big brother treatment badly. Everyone knew Christie was coming after him. Christie advertised it and used the exact same lines in the debate that he'd thrown to the media prior. It was somewhat flabbergasting that Rubio fell apart at the seams to such a predictable (and frankly, pedestrian) attack.
 
In NH tonight, I expect: 1. Trump 2. Kasich 3. Rubio

and

1. Sanders 2. Clinton
 
Bets I have tonight for NH

Sanders -160

Trump -175

Kasich +1400
 
Just bet Kasich has a better NH finish than Rubio -120. You guys like that?
 
Well done! Which bookie?
Thanks man. It was on Bookmaker. I originally tried betting it at -111 and the line jumped to -120 by the time I got my bet in. I put 2u down on it. I was thinking about putting down 5u on it, but I am pretty much new to politics. Ironically, betting has got me into it... lol. The line ended up at -165 before it was taken down at 5pm EST
 
Thanks man. It was on Bookmaker. I originally tried betting it at -111 and the line jumped to -120 by the time I got my bet in. I put 2u down on it. I was thinking about putting down 5u on it, but I am pretty much new to politics. Ironically, betting has got me into it... lol. The line ended up at -165 before it was taken down at 5pm EST
Next for Dems is Nevada, right? No good polls yet. I can't imagine Sanders doing well there, though.
 
I checked 5Dimes last night and I'm shocked how low the limits are for betting politics. I think I'm limited to $20 a bet.

Nevada:

Factors that favor Clinton:
Caucus (rewards organization)
Harry Reid and Dem establishment
About 40% latino or black


Factors that favor Sanders:
Same-day voter registration
Momentum post-NH
 
Trump wins Nevada -570 on BM
Trump wins Nevada -210 on 5d

I hit the -210, just because. Who would be the likely winner besides Trump? Cruz?
 
Trump wins Nevada -570 on BM
Trump wins Nevada -210 on 5d

I hit the -210, just because. Who would be the likely winner besides Trump? Cruz?
Yeah, probably Cruz.
 
My limits have varied between 100 and 250 generally.

Bet Cruz at +325 in South Carolina and Trump at -210 in Nevada..
 
When I checked yesterday, 5Dimes had Trump wins nomination at -105. I still think there is value there. I see the road ahead being very favorable to Trump. Limits are so low I'm not even going to bother.
 
That one is $100 for me (and at +115 now).
 
Just did Cruz wins Nevada +400 as a small, semi hedge to Trump -210. Also hit Cruz wins SC +400
 
Back
Top