Really? It's not complex. If you think he has a 5% chance of winning, then a 5-1 bet is a great bet. You claim to think he has a 0.x% chance of winning - you should think a 5-1 bet is a lock.
Look, I get it. You're just talking out of your ass because it's fun. You don't really gamble, and you've never tracked how you would do overall IF you gambled with actual odds. Forums are great places for guys like this to spout silliness. Because it's fun.
But I actually think you should gamble. When you can afford $100, start making $5 bets. It will give you a whole new appreciation for analyzing fights. Good luck.