Elections Perhaps the biggest post election myth...

[jeremyemilio]

I've heard both the right and the left (for different reasons) claim that voter turnout this election was way down from 2020. The number that keeps getting thrown around is 10,000,000 fewer votes. But with votes still being counted, that's down to less than 6,500,000, and that's with almost a million and a half votes left to count in California alone. When all is said and done, the total is going to be pretty close.

Why does it matter?

For the rightie election deniers it matters because they've been citing lower turnout as evidence that some of the votes in 2020 were made up. This probably doesn't need a lot of discussion except to point out that it's just crazy talk. There is no way to sneak 10,000,000 votes into the count. It's simply an impossibility. Even the most partisan leftie reporter who got the slightest whiff of this being something that happened would sell their own grandmother to land that scoop. And in the end, the vote count is going to be pretty comparable.

For the lefties it matters because there's a core of left leaning talking point developing that Trump did not change the electorate from the last election or bring in any new voters, but that Biden voters failed Kamala (there are a variety of explanations out there, from sexism and racism to people just forgetting how awful Trump is). But that narrative simply doesn't fly when you look at the states that Trump picked up:

In 2020 Biden took Arizona 1,672,143 votes to Trump's 1,661,686; in 2024 Trump has (so far) received 1,747,059, which flipped the state for him, but also would have been enough to take it in 2020.

In 2020 Biden took Georgia 2,473,633 votes to Trump's 2,461,854; in 2024 Trump has (so far) received 2,662,971, which flipped the state for him, but also would have been enough to take it in 2020.

In 2020 Biden took Michigan 2,804,040 votes to Trump's 2,648,852; in 2024 Trump has (so far) received 2,814,251, which flipped the state for him, but also would have been enough to take it in 2020.

In 2020 Biden took Nevada 703,486 votes to Trump's 669,890; in 2024 Trump has (so far) received 750,101, which flipped the state for him, but also would have been enough to take it in 2020.

In 2020 Biden took Pennsylvania 3,459,923 votes to Trump's 3,378,263; in 2024 Trump has (so far) received 3,529,983, which flipped the state for him, but also would have been enough to take it in 2020.

In 2020 Biden took Wisconsin 1,630,866 votes to Trump's 1,610,184; in 2024 Trump has (so far) received 1,697,769, which flipped the state for him, but also would have been enough to take it in 2020.

I get that everyone is shocked at Trump winning the popular vote, and so there's a lot of commentary and analysis that is focused on how that could have happened, but the bigger story is that even with Biden's record breaking vote totals of 2020, if Trump had received the same votes that he managed to collect in 2024, he'd have defeated Biden in the electoral college (and the election) 312 to 226, with the exact same map that he managed against Harris.

Or, put another way, if Harris had turned out the same voters as Biden (this is going with the theory that they didn't convert to Trump, but just stayed home), and Trump collected the same votes as he did, he still would have won with the exact same map.

I don't think there's anything particularly debatable (or even very political) here, but just thought it was worth noting.

 

[Fergelmince]

I've heard both the right and the left (for different reasons) claim that voter turnout this election was way down from 2020. The number that keeps getting thrown around is 10,000,000 fewer votes. But with votes still being counted, that's down to less than 6,500,000, and that's with almost a million and a half votes left to count in California alone. When all is said and done, the total is going to be pretty close.

Why does it matter?

For the rightie election deniers it matters because they've been citing lower turnout as evidence that some of the votes in 2020 were made up. This probably doesn't need a lot of discussion except to point out that it's just crazy talk. There is no way to sneak 10,000,000 votes into the count. It's simply an impossibility. Even the most partisan leftie reporter who got the slightest whiff of this being something that happened would sell their own grandmother to land that scoop. And in the end, the vote count is going to be pretty comparable.

For the lefties it matters because there's a core of left leaning talking point developing that Trump did not change the electorate from the last election or bring in any new voters, but that Biden voters failed Kamala (there are a variety of explanations out there, from sexism and racism to people just forgetting how awful Trump is). But that narrative simply doesn't fly when you look at the states that Trump picked up:

In 2020 Biden took Arizona 1,672,143 votes to Trump's 1,661,686; in 2024 Trump has (so far) received 1,747,059, which flipped the state for him, but also would have been enough to take it in 2020.

In 2020 Biden took Georgia 2,473,633 votes to Trump's 2,461,854; in 2024 Trump has (so far) received 2,662,971, which flipped the state for him, but also would have been enough to take it in 2020.

In 2020 Biden took Michigan 2,804,040 votes to Trump's 2,648,852; in 2024 Trump has (so far) received 2,814,251, which flipped the state for him, but also would have been enough to take it in 2020.

In 2020 Biden took Nevada 703,486 votes to Trump's 669,890; in 2024 Trump has (so far) received 750,101, which flipped the state for him, but also would have been enough to take it in 2020.

In 2020 Biden took Pennsylvania 3,459,923 votes to Trump's 3,378,263; in 2024 Trump has (so far) received 3,529,983, which flipped the state for him, but also would have been enough to take it in 2020.

In 2020 Biden took Wisconsin 1,630,866 votes to Trump's 1,610,184; in 2024 Trump has (so far) received 1,697,769, which flipped the state for him, but also would have been enough to take it in 2020.

I get that everyone is shocked at Trump winning the popular vote, and so there's a lot of commentary and analysis that is focused on how that could have happened, but the bigger story is that even with Biden's record breaking vote totals of 2020, if Trump had received the same votes that he managed to collect in 2024, he'd have defeated Biden in the electoral college (and the election) 312 to 226, with the exact same map that he managed against Harris.

Or, put another way, if Harris had turned out the same voters as Biden (this is going with the theory that they didn't convert to Trump, but just stayed home), and Trump collected the same votes as he did, he still would have won with the exact same map.

I don't think there's anything particularly debatable (or even very political) here, but just thought it was worth noting.

It's November 14th, NINE FUCKING DAYS AFTER THE ELECTION. What kind of 3rd world shit is this??? Why are votes still being counted??? That sounds like some kind of Congolese election rigging.

 

[jeremyemilio]

It's November 14th, NINE FUCKING DAYS AFTER THE ELECTION. What kind of 3rd world shit is this??? Why are votes still being counted??? That sounds like some kind of Congolese election rigging.

Mostly stuff being mailed in, I think?

But, yeah. I don't understand why it takes days upon days to count some significant part of the vote.