Elections Pennsylvania 18th District Special Election (3/13)

[Lead]

Pennsylvania's 18th district is being decided today. This is a district Trump won by 20pts but is looking to be very close between the two candidates. Trump visited the district Saturday to help bolster support. The ads have been interesting to see/hear. Saccone (R) has been doing mostly attack ads that Lamb is just going to do whatever Pelosi wants while Lamb (D) is running almost as an independent saying he will work with both Republican and Democrats.

What to watch in the Pennsylvania special election

Voters in southwest Pennsylvania are heading to the polls Tuesday for a special election. Democrats, looking to take back the majority in Congress next year, are hoping a high-profile win in Pennsylvania's 18th District will give them a boost in the heart of Trump country. Republicans are hoping to avoid an embarrassing defeat in a district that has voted Republican since 2002.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/13/politics/pennsylvania-special-election-what-to-watch/index.html

Republicans abandon tax cut message in Pa. special election

Republicans backed away from their signature tax-cut law in the final days of a closely watched special House election in the Pittsburgh suburbs — even though it's the very accomplishment on which they had banked their midterm election hopes.

Instead, GOP groups that once proudly declared the tax law would be the central fight of the midterms are now airing ads on so-called sanctuary cities and attacking Democrat Conor Lamb’s record as a prosecutor as they try to drag GOP state Rep. Rick Saccone over the finish line in Tuesday‘s election.


The strategy shift has been dramatic.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018...ecial-election-preview-tax-republicans-458276

It's just one district but any of these special elections before midterms are looked at ten fold to get a glimpse of what we may see.

 

[Prime Rib]

Cliff notes on how this will be a +/- please, beyond the obvious seat.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Expecting a lot of threads on this subject, I see.

 

[Lead]

Expecting a lot of threads on this subject, I see.

Have you noticed any already? I just kinda scanned the first page and didn't see anything. I've been checked out a bit this week.

 

[Rational Poster]

Have you noticed any already? I just kinda scanned the first page and didn't see anything. I've been checked out a bit this week.

What Jack is saying is that he doesn't expect the Trump bots to want to talk about this.

 

[Lead]

Cliff notes on how this will be a +/- please, beyond the obvious seat.

Are you asking for the polls?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ct_special_election_saccone_vs_lamb-6327.html
Lamb is averaging +2 which is pretty much a dead even match up. Saccone obviously lost a lot of ground since 2016 and is fighting to squeek this out. The race has has become nationalized with Lamb being tied to Pelosi and also with Trump's recent play on steel tariffs. This is a district that would show interest in hearing about steel jobs as it's the suburbs of Pittsburgh.

 

[KILL KILL]

This will be interesting. We've seen a growing trend of red seats being flipped in special elections lately.

 

[Lead]

What Jack is saying is that he doesn't expect the Trump bots to want to talk about this.

Yea, I suppose. Might depend on the result. You could get a Saccone close win with a bunch of late posts flooding in. I don't really get the fanboyism of elections, especially small ones like this.

 

[HomerThompson]

I saw some chick on Hardball last night that said, "Lamb plus 4". That sounds good, but I'll say only +3.

 

[Rational Poster]

Yea, I suppose. Might depend on the result. You could get a Saccone close win with a bunch of late posts flooding in. I don't really get the fanboyism of elections, especially small ones like this.

Well, I think they all learned their lesson about the Roy Moore fiasco.

Can't get too invested too soon.

 

[Joe Wong]

What's interesting here is that whoever wins needs to run again in like 2 months.

Because of Republican Gerrymandering, the Congressional Districts had to be remapped (which caused me a fuckton of extra work, so fuck you Republicans), so what is currently the 18th Cong District will be something like the 14th etc.

A lot of candidates got fucked over because of it too. The district they were once campaigning in is no longer relevant to their candidacy.

That being said, Conor Lamb is like quintessential candidate. Tall, smart, veteran, good looking (some homo), not a dumbass, former Prosecutor, smart. He should win, but this is "Trump Country" so who knows.

 

[Lead]

Well, I think they all learned their lesson about the Roy Moore fiasco.

Can't get too invested too soon.

It kinda happens both ways. We can't ignore 2016 either. People get super invested and certain of themselves and then you get those kinda nights.

The Moore situation was almost in a category of it's own because it was 2-3 weeks of what the fuck should the GOP do and you had a major split in what should've been a guaranteed seat.

 

[Lead]

What's interesting here is that whoever wins needs to run again in like 2 months.

Because of Republican Gerrymandering, the Congressional Districts had to be remapped (which caused me a fuckton of extra work, so fuck you Republicans), so what is currently the 18th Cong District will be something like the 14th etc.

A lot of candidates got fucked over because of it too. The district they were once campaigning in is no longer relevant to their candidacy.

Yea, they didn't give an extension or grace period. The new lines make more sense to me from the perspective of the western PA. I'm not too sure what all go arranged in Philly but it does look less mangled now.

Why did this cause you a ton of work? What is your job?

 

[Jack V Savage]

Have you noticed any already? I just kinda scanned the first page and didn't see anything. I've been checked out a bit this week.

Bad joke. Referring to the 3/13 in the title.

 

[Joe Wong]

Yea, they didn't give an extension or grace period. The new lines make more sense to me from the perspective of the western PA. I'm not too sure what all go arranged in Philly but it does look less mangled now.

Why did this cause you a ton of work? What is your job?

We develop and support the voter registration apps used by the state. So when district lines are redrawn, we have to incorporate this into the apps and ensure all voters get linked to the right district, etc. We have the Special Election today, followed by the Primary in a few months, so we essentially had to figure out a way for counties to set their districts to conform to the new lines, while also allowing the old districts to remain in place for the election.

Long days and nights.

 

[Rational Poster]

What's interesting here is that whoever wins needs to run again in like 2 months.

Because of Republican Gerrymandering, the Congressional Districts had to be remapped (which caused me a fuckton of extra work, so fuck you Republicans), so what is currently the 18th Cong District will be something like the 14th etc.

A lot of candidates got fucked over because of it too. The district they were once campaigning in is no longer relevant to their candidacy.

That being said, Conor Lamb is like quintessential candidate. Tall, smart, veteran, good looking (some homo), not a dumbass, former Prosecutor, smart. He should win, but this is "Trump Country" so who knows.

You're supposed to say handsome, not good looking.

It's less gay.

 

[Lead]

We develop and support the voter registration apps used by the state. So when district lines are redrawn, we have to incorporate this into the apps and ensure all voters get linked to the right district, etc. We have the Special Election today, followed by the Primary in a few months, so we essentially had to figure out a way for counties to set their districts to conform to the new lines, while also allowing the old districts to remain in place for the election.

Long days and nights.

PA is somewhat crazy with how we handle our school districts and localities. I'm sure it's a nightmare for you to deal with.

 

[Fawlty]

Polls closed. First results starting to come in. Only ~1000 votes in so far. Insignificant Lamb lead.

 

[Fawlty]

According to https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...ults-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

10.6k votes in- 60.5% Lamb - 38.9% Saccone

Still a tossup

 

[Joe Wong]

Let's go Lamb!