Overeem basically has to avoid a brawl in the 1st and he'll be fine. Control the pace like he's done in his last 3 and be effective with what he throws. 75% striking accuracy paints the picture. He's looking for openings and landing at will in fairly slow-paced fights. If Stipe risks gassing by throwing caution to the wind early he has a good chance, but that's a big risk in a 5-rounder with everything on the line. A slower pace doesn't benefit him, Overeem's too calculated with his attacks for a Werdum repeat being a likely outcome.
Clinching early and tripping Stipe down wouldn't be a bad idea, neither. Then again, Stipe might go for takedowns/GnP, which wouldn't be a bad idea at all. One factor also is Stipe's mental strength he showed against JDS when being in a tough fight. Kept pushing the pace in the 5th round despite being beaten up, and Overeem has lost before when his opponent doesn't fold. All this combined, this is actually a pretty good fight.