Out of these 3 upcoming UFC 219 bouts which is the more likely underdog upset

fiftywattmafia

fiftywattmafia

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Holly at +265 (Cyborg -300)
Barboza +225 (Khabib -265)
Esparza +250 (Calvillo -300)

I think the odds on Calvillo are just a bit high. To me she's not a fighter that should be favored by that much vs. just about anyone at 115. Carla isn't who many thought she'd be but I'd say there is some value in a wager there.

I think betting Holly (don't go crazy) is a good chance. Cyborg is virtually untested. While she did finish Tonya in her last fight it took her some time and Borg looked somewhat mortal. Holly, while not looking unreal vs. anyone except Ronda (yes she KO'd Betche in a Hall of Fame GIF moment....but was a snooze fest until then) Holly has the tools and fight IQ to really have a real shot vs. Cyborg. She could shock the world but I don't think it'd be that shocking.

Lastly, I'd say Barboza if he can have unreal TDD, utilize his amazing kicks and stand w/Khabib he can win this fight. With 2 or so fights in 3 years and having shown some (small) holes in his game....he's not unbeatable. Really nobody is.

What do you think. I'd throw $50 at Holly and watch her play keep away until she lands a killer left kick.
 
I agree, TS.

To be quite honest, I actually am picking Holly.
 
Surprised at the odds for Kebab. Can't see anything but an easy one sided victory for him.

I'd say of the 3, Esparza is the most likely to win, but who knows.
 
Esparza. I could see her grinding Calvillo out.

The biggest gripe I have against Holly is her ground game. I feel like the fight will be competitive on the feet, but if it hits the floor, Cyborg will just maul her.
 
None but the esparza calvillo odds are off imo
 
fiftywattmafia said:
Holly at +265 (Cyborg -300)
Barboza +225 (Khabib -265)
Esparza +250 (Calvillo -300)

I think the odds on Calvillo are just a bit high. To me she's not a fighter that should be favored by that much vs. just about anyone at 115. Carla isn't who many thought she'd be but I'd say there is some value in a wager there.

I think betting Holly (don't go crazy) is a good chance. Cyborg is virtually untested. While she did finish Tonya in her last fight it took her some time and Borg looked somewhat mortal. Holly, while not looking unreal vs. anyone except Ronda (yes she KO'd Betche in a Hall of Fame GIF moment....but was a snooze fest until then) Holly has the tools and fight IQ to really have a real shot vs. Cyborg. She could shock the world but I don't think it'd be that shocking.

Lastly, I'd say Barboza if he can have unreal TDD, utilize his amazing kicks and stand w/Khabib he can win this fight. With 2 or so fights in 3 years and having shown some (small) holes in his game....he's not unbeatable. Really nobody is.

What do you think. I'd throw $50 at Holly and watch her play keep away until she lands a killer left kick.
Click to expand...
Barboza brah
Knee takes Kebab’s head clean off.
 
Too much hype on Calvillo.

Esparza will take her down and control her.

Time to capitalize sherbetters

Edit:
All underdogs on the main card are worth a look, good value on Magny and Lineker right now
 
Barboza. He's way faster and more athletic then khabib, has scary striking, and good lateral movement. All this could lead to Khabib taking desperate shots from too far away or hesitating due to the threat of counter knees.

People seem to think this will be a mauling by Khabib, and it might be if he gets him down early, but barboza has a very real shot at winning this
 
I'm such a bitch. In the OP I said Holly. I just can't pick her. This is why I seriously don't bet. Just like to have fun with it. I don't love my pics but who gives a shit.

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I have Holly winning, because Cyroid just squashes bloated 135ers and part timers. I might be just a little clouded by hate though.
 
If I were a betting man, I'd put a bit down on Esparza. She's undersized for the division, but her wrestling is quite good, I could see her grapple fucking Calvillo.

The reason I'm not a betting man is that my picks suck...
 
EffinCraig said:
I have Holly winning, because Cyroid just squashes bloated 135ers and part timers. I might be just a little clouded by hate though.
Click to expand...
Fair enough. TBH I really want to see Cyborg be willing to lose muscle mass and let her frame diminish just enough to be able to make 135 and fight Amanda and company. At 145 its just Cyborg and anyone crazy enough to come up to her. War Holly for taking it on.

Can you imagine if Holly gets this done? She beats Cyborg and Ronda? Sweet lord....that's awesome.
 
Holly is the least likely by far I think. Unless Cyborg fights like a spastic there's no way she loses.
 
I'm picking Khabib to win but I think people are sleeping on Barboza. He's a very live dog in this fight
 
I can't tell Calvillo apart from Esparza.

Both are journeymen at best, that fight is bound to end in a 29-28 either way.
 
Esparza would be the best bet there. In those WMMA fights anyone can beat anyone, its very amateurish, number 30 can beat number 1 for sure, its a 50/50 fight.
 
Esparza.... Sure she has looked absolutely pathetic if she can't get the takedown. But I like her chances of grinding out a win more than I like the other two of pulling a rabbit out of a hat.
 
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