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As a rule, you want your betting investments to be as safe as possible. This essentially means finding low risk, high reward, where people think there is a high risk, and low reward. This means betting on underdogs, yes, but not arbitrarily, because 'anything can happen'. One has to have good reasons for thinking the majority is wrong about what is likely to occur.
Good example: Brock vs. Cain. Brock was the clear favorite, but a good analysis of how the fight could turn out suggested rather that Cain had an advantage.
One determines and evaluates the judgment of the majority, on a case by case basis, by looking at the fight ahead itself.
In this case, is it likely that Jones shouldn't be the heavy favorite? I don't think so. OSP has been developing, has solid takedown defense, and very good striking. He is aggressive and can try to push against Jones. We have seen Jones handle pressure extremely well so far, both from Gustaffson and Cormier. But OSP has power, aggresiveness, and has thus a legitimate shot to hurt Jones on the feet.
Unfortunately, I don't think this by itself tips the scale anywhere near his favor. Jones still has a huge reach advantage, which allows him to keep distance well, though fighters have been gettting better at plowing through it by either technique-speed (Gustaffson) or by sheer pressure (Cormier). Will OSP be able to exert similar pressure or exert similar technique speed advantage? Considering what we saw in his performance with Glover, I'm inclined to say no: he doesn't seem as refined as Gustaffson, nor as technically capable of pressuring as Cormier. He is susceptible to the takedown, and his submission defense reveals very patchy BJJ.
The more likely scenario, as I see it, is that Jones will submit him or TKO him without much controversy.
Good example: Brock vs. Cain. Brock was the clear favorite, but a good analysis of how the fight could turn out suggested rather that Cain had an advantage.
One determines and evaluates the judgment of the majority, on a case by case basis, by looking at the fight ahead itself.
In this case, is it likely that Jones shouldn't be the heavy favorite? I don't think so. OSP has been developing, has solid takedown defense, and very good striking. He is aggressive and can try to push against Jones. We have seen Jones handle pressure extremely well so far, both from Gustaffson and Cormier. But OSP has power, aggresiveness, and has thus a legitimate shot to hurt Jones on the feet.
Unfortunately, I don't think this by itself tips the scale anywhere near his favor. Jones still has a huge reach advantage, which allows him to keep distance well, though fighters have been gettting better at plowing through it by either technique-speed (Gustaffson) or by sheer pressure (Cormier). Will OSP be able to exert similar pressure or exert similar technique speed advantage? Considering what we saw in his performance with Glover, I'm inclined to say no: he doesn't seem as refined as Gustaffson, nor as technically capable of pressuring as Cormier. He is susceptible to the takedown, and his submission defense reveals very patchy BJJ.
The more likely scenario, as I see it, is that Jones will submit him or TKO him without much controversy.
) Plus, online betting sites wouldn't let you bet that amount. They're pretty pathetic.
