There's a common misconception that just because a fighter begins to find success consistently by entering a meaningful streak that they must somehow be better than they were before, or that because someone begins to lose they must have 'lost a step'. After all, if they are winning more and reaching the top, they must be better than were they were losing and performing inconsistently!
This is generally true but not always. Sometimes it is just a matter of probability reflecting a tendency that in the grand scheme does not affect the total distribution. If I am throwing dice 1v1 and I start getting higher numbers over a 10 throw toss that doesn't mean I suddenly got better at throwing dice or that I am more likely to win the next throw. Same if were to lose; it doesn't mean I am suddenly worse at throwing dice or that it is more likely I will get a 4 and my opponent a 6.
Is Oliveira better than he used to be? One might be inclined to use his success against top dogs lately as undeniable proof for that. But this by itself would be presumptuous. And I just don't see where in this case Oliveira has improved.
He has always had very aggressive and dynamic jitz, crafty at finding openings from scrambles and hustling from position, even if not graceful. He has great cardio, good power, is flexible, lanky, tough, durable, good at scrambling for position and finding openings, fantastic from his back, and throws strikes from weird angles. In some respects, he reminds me of Ferguson. And he has always had the same weaknesses; sloppy technique with his boxing, which leaves him often prone to getting hit a lot, not the best takedown defense, prone to being overwhelmed by pressure.
Has he been more consistently successful against top competition? Undeniably.
Is he better than he was? Sure, he's much better than he was in his debut. But his recent success does not designate a paradigm shift in his skillset. I think it is a similar situation than with Ferguson. It is rare, and more bound to occur with someone who is durable and gritty, and resourceful at finding avenues to victory. All of which Oliveira has, and has always had, in spades. Or Werdum. But I think the same will happen with him that happened with Ferg. The streak will end, because of the same weaknesses being reflected and suddenly everyone will say "oh now he's past his prime!".
