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Official UFN 85 Thread - Brisbane - Hunto vs Murrrr

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 5, 2016.

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  1. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    Hunt + Shoeface + Patrick pays 2.59. Hitting that.
     
  2. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Patrick +187 looking golden after weigh ins.
     
  3. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Wow, crazy they didn't void it!
     
  4. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    It could though. I have followed Frank his entire career. And I'm old, I'm talking about since when he entered the UFC against Traven. He's been my favorite fighter for like 15+ years.

    Frank isn't going to stand in there and trade with Hunto. He's just not. Yeah he might be okay striking on the outside for a while if he can stay out of Hunt's range, but this will look nothing like the Duffee fight where Frank just decided to stand in the pocket and throw hands figuring he could slip a few more punches than Duffee could and land a big one (which he did). Frank also got tagged by Duffee but showed good composure and a solid chin. That said, I think he respects Hunt's power and chin way too much to engage in a firefight.

    The reason that could bring cardio into play is that we may see Mir shoot for more takedowns or look for other creative ways to get the fight to the mat. If he's successful, Hunt is probably in trouble. But if Frank struggles there it could really sap his energy if he's in less than amazing shape. Might be a good LB opportunity if Frank is trying and failing to bring the fight to the mat. Yeah it could tire Hunt too but his power stays even when he's tired.
     
  5. wigglestick pess de gward Platinum Member

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    I'm liking Rawlings +3.5 -265 for parlay material. Its her hometown and she should be planning to get it to the mat and with her size and consistance theres a good chance she does and takes atleast 1 round. I parlayed it with patrick for basicly even odds
     
  6. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Disappointed in Frank's shape. He has shown serious cardio issues in his last couple of fights. It feels weird saying this but if he cant take Hunt out in r1 i dont like his chances.
     
  7. Card Silver Belt

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    Crazy how many pick'em fights are on this card - 7 of 12.
     
  8. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Should be great for lb!
     
  9. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    I will add a few more momentarily but here are a few breakdowns with my picks if anyone is interested:


    Neil Magny vs. Hector Lombard
    Lombard -110 Magny -110
    Coming off of a prolonged absence -- due to a suspension for performance-enhancing drug use -- former Bellator Middleweight Champion Hector Lombard is back. Built like the proverbial fire hydrant, Lombard is a dynamic and ultra-versatile mixed martial artist who is competent wherever the fight takes place. An astute grappler, Lombard is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Judo black belt respectively. The fighter represented his home country of Cuba in the 2000 Olympics as a member of their Judo team. That said, the Cuban bomber has historically used his judo base to keep him vertical so that he can employ his kickboxing game. Short and stocky with the power to knockout a jackass with a single punch, Lombard is physically -- and somewhat stylistically-- reminiscent of a young Mike Tyson. Indeed, with twenty wins coming inside the first round this is readily apparent. The 38-year-old Cuban is almost always able to dictate where the fight takes place due to his outstanding takedown defense. Consequently, this allows him to be the predator in the cage/ring and walk his opponent down which historically has resulted in free naps. Nearing 40 years old -- with over a decade in the sport -- it will be interesting to see where Lombard is when he makes his return. However, if his physique means anything at all it's bad news for his foes because he was positively jacked at the weigh-ins. Still yet, there will be a lot of intrigue as to how he will perform now that he "MAY" be competing au naturel for the first time in his protracted MMA career.

    Among the lone bright spots on the 16th installment of 'The Ultimate Fighter' (TUF) is Brooklyn, New York native Neil Magny. Physically Magny is a rarity, standing in a long and strong 6'3" tall with a prodigious 80-inch reach he automatically enters almost every fight with a distinct advantage in the aforementioned departments. What's more, Magny recognizes his potential and understands how to best utilize his physical weapons. Using his left hand to keep his opponent at the end of his punches, he will in turn utilize the right like a frozen rope that crashes into his opponents face like a battering ram. From the clinch Magny can be a handful as well. Slicing elbows, spearing knees and trips from the body-lock are just a few weapons in his vast -- and ever expanding -- arsenal. The best asset for the 28-year-old Denver, Colorado-based product is not his physical attributes but rather his seemingly endless gas-tank. Magny is capable of going fullbore for 15 minutes without needing a second to catch his breath.

    Coming into the fight Magny is going to enjoy a colossal 5 and 9 inch height and reach advantage respectively over Lombard. That is to say nothing of the ten year age gap between the two which -- on paper -- should benefit the 28-year-old Elevation Fight Team product to a substantial degree. If Magny has shown himself to be vulnerable to a certain discipline it is in the grappling department. This was the case early in his UFC career where he was taken down and dispatched quickly by Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace Sergio Moraes and then most recently when he was controlled from pillar to post by Damien Maia. A purple belt in BJJ himself, Magny has tightened up much of his grappling deficiencies. This was highlighted prominently in his five round tilt with scramble-monster Kelvin Gastelum and his utter domination of Judo and BJJ black belt Eric Silva in his penultimate outing. Still yet, Lombard will be his sternest test when it comes to fending off takedowns since the Maia bout. Assuming Magny can continuously shrug off Lombard's takedown attempts, then I believe this fight will be decided on who dictates the range. If Magny is able to exploit the height and reach disparity -- and keep the ATT representative at the end of his punches -- he should be able to take home a clear-cut decision. Moving in straight lines like a rook on a chessboard, Lombard has trouble when facing an opponent who moves like a bishop and cuts angles. However, if Lombard is able to bob and weave his way inside the pocket he can bomb on Magny and dust the cat with a single blow.

    Prediction: Lombard via KO

    Jake Matthews vs. Johnny Case
    Case -117 / Matthews -102
    Among the youngest competitors on the UFC roster, Matthews makes his way back to the octagon this weekend as.the 21-year-old Australian native seeks to put on a show in front of his hometown fans. An incredibly strong young man, Matthews uses his strength and excellent technique to impose his will on his opponent. This style works well for the Aussie given that he is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has excellent takedowns. There is no hyperbole in stating how talented Matthews is on the mat considering one of his three wins in the UFC was achieved by submitting second degree BJJ black belt Vagner Rocha. In the striking department the 21-year-old has a serviceable attack yet he is still rough around the edges. Primarily, Matthews uses his striking as a means to work his way into a clinch where he can tussle with his man to wear them down or bring them to the canvas. From top position the young fighter will hunt for the submission and/or rain down heavy punishment via a steady drip of elbows and punches. Either way, Matthews is consistently looking for the finish while he pushes a torrid pace.

    Tonight Case will make his fifth UFC appearance. The 26-year-old fighter is 4-0 thus far under the ZUFFA banner. An ultra-diverse competitor, Case has a vast array of weapons in his arsenal. Moreover he is not averse to breaking them out as he is absolutely a killer in the cage consistently seeking a finish. In fact, he has achieved his goal and beat the bell in 18 of 22 professional bouts. A purple belt in "Jury Jiu-Jitsu" under fellow UFC fighter Myles Jury, Case is an excellent grappler and now that he is a member of Power MMA his takedowns are going to infinitely improve. With crisp and technical striking, "Hollywood" has a nice kickboxing game and is most effective when he is putting together punches from the fringe. In sum, Case is a well-rounded fighter with few holes in his game and he seems to improve with each outing. Finally, he is a well conditioned fighter who always comes to his bouts with a full tank of gas.

    This is a great match up by Joe Silva and/or Sean Shelby in matching up two of the most promising young prospects in the lightweight division. The two individuals are equally athletic and explosive with a ton of upside regardless of the outcome in this particular match. The one advantage that Matthews will enjoy is in the strength department as he is going to be more physical than 90% of the opposition standing across from him. That said, Case is no weakling and his technique should be able to match the physicality Matthews brings to bear. This tilt could very well go either way although I believe the caginess, diversity and cardio are all on the side of Case who I envision finding a way to win.

    [\spoiler]
    Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Daniel Kelly
    Shoeface -450 Kelly +355
    Former 'The Ultimate Fighter' Brazil 2 HW Champion and fighter affectionately known as "Shoeface" is back in the cage this weekend where another win will have him in great position to crack the top 15 middleweight rankings. Having competed as a HW and LHW to start his career, the young Brazilian prospect has found his niche in the Middleweight division where his grapple heavy style of fighting has translated brilliantly. An expert grappler SF is a high level BJJ black belt with excellent takedowns to force his opponent to play his game. Possessing a stifling top game, SF is a serious threat to notch a submission from atop his man or even throw up a triangle/armbar from his guard. That said, even when the submission doesn't present itself, Shoeface will impose a suffocating attack where he maintains superior position throughout. Though he isn't exactly the most polished striker on the feet, his kickboxing is competent nonetheless and works well integrated with his takedowns. Ultimately the 26-year old Brazilian has a ton of untapped potential which will make him a real problem in the division if he continues to progress on the current trajectory.

    A member of 'The Ultimate Fighter' Nations: Australia versus the UK was the first time fans got a good look at Daniel Kelly. Representing the Australian team, Kelly was eventually finished by season runner-up Sheldon Westcott via submission. This was a bit surprising given Kelly's history as submission artist himself. Indeed, Kelly is a purple belt in BJJ and a 4th° Judo black belt. Having made his professional mixed martial arts debut in 2006, Kelly would subsequently retire from the sport only to make a comeback six years later as a 34-year-old. Now a ripe 38-years old, Kelly is trying to remain competitive as a professional mixed martial artist before forming a rec-league basketball team at his local YMCA. Not surprisingly, Kelly's attack revolves almost exclusively around his grappling abilities. With a fundamentally flawed kickboxing game, Kelly's pugilistic prowess is unkempt and disheveled which often places him in position to be hit cleanly. Indeed, this was the case in his second octagon appearance when Sam Alvey bombed on him 49 seconds inside the opening stanza forcing him to be woken up with the help of smelling salts. Essentially for Kelly to find any meaningful success he must work his way into the clinch where he can work his dirty boxing, lean on his man or hit a trip takedown.

    Basically this fight is going to be a uphill struggle for the Aussie which is being generous. Ostensibly every pertinent category favors the Brazilian in this matchup and given that he is over a decade younger only compounds Kelly's problems. Barring a meltdown or fluke injury from Shoeface, I can't figure out a route for the Aussie to get his hand raised.

    God I hate this new format
     
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Didn't watch weigh ins last night, just watched the replay this morning.

    Only thing I'm adding to is Te Huna itd. He already has the skill edge on Bosse, and he towers over him too. His punches should connect first even if it's a brawl.
     
  11. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Rawlings ham fotn +1000
     
  12. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    AMAZING line. Definitely doesn't reflect the likelihood this has of getting FOTN, i'm on it.
     
  13. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Daniel Kelly
    Shoeface -450 Kelly +355
    Former 'The Ultimate Fighter' Brazil 2 HW Champion and fighter affectionately known as "Shoeface" is back in the cage this weekend where another win will have him in great position to crack the top 15 middleweight rankings. Having competed as a HW and LHW to start his career, the young Brazilian prospect has found his niche in the Middleweight division where his grapple heavy style of fighting has translated brilliantly. An expert grappler SF is a high level BJJ black belt with excellent takedowns to force his opponent to play his game. Possessing a stifling top game, SF is a serious threat to notch a submission from atop his man or even throw up a triangle/armbar from his guard. That said, even when the submission doesn't present itself, Shoeface will impose a suffocating attack where he maintains superior position throughout. Though he isn't exactly the most polished striker on the feet, his kickboxing is competent nonetheless and works well integrated with his takedowns. Ultimately the 26-year old Brazilian has a ton of untapped potential which will make him a real problem in the division if he continues to progress on the current trajectory.

    A member of 'The Ultimate Fighter' Nations: Australia versus the UK was the first time fans got a good look at Daniel Kelly. Representing the Australian team, Kelly was eventually finished by season runner-up Sheldon Westcott via submission. This was a bit surprising given Kelly's history as submission artist himself. Indeed, Kelly is a purple belt in BJJ and a 4th° Judo black belt. Having made his professional mixed martial arts debut in 2006, Kelly would subsequently retire from the sport only to make a comeback six years later as a 34-year-old. Now a ripe 38-years old, Kelly is trying to remain competitive as a professional mixed martial artist before forming a rec-league basketball team at his local YMCA. Not surprisingly, Kelly's attack revolves almost exclusively around his grappling abilities. With a fundamentally flawed kickboxing game, Kelly's pugilistic prowess is unkempt and disheveled which often places him in position to be hit cleanly. Indeed, this was the case in his second octagon appearance when Sam Alvey bombed on him 49 seconds inside the opening stanza forcing him to be woken up with the help of smelling salts. Essentially for Kelly to find any meaningful success he must work his way into the clinch where he can work his dirty boxing, lean on his man or hit a trip takedown.

    Basically this fight is going to be a uphill struggle for the Aussie which is being generous. Ostensibly every pertinent category favors the Brazilian in this matchup and given that he is over a decade younger only compounds Kelly's problems. Barring a meltdown or fluke injury from Shoeface, I can't figure out a route for the Aussie to get his hand raised.

    Alan Jouban vs. Brendan O'Reilly
    O'Reilly +385 / Alan Jouban -485
    A former contestant on The Ultimate Fighter Nations: Canada vs. Australia, O'Reilly was eliminated from the tournament by Kajan Johnson in the opening round via a quick submission. O'Reilly comes into this match having won six of eight with the other being a draw. Representing Gamebred Submission Fighting in Australia which is a solid camp "down under" based in Brisbane, the "Badger" has good coaches and partners who've been instrumental in his progression. Far from a dynamic athlete, O'Reilly is a gritty individual who likes making things ugly. For the most part, the 27-year-old is at his best when he's able to grapple with his opponent. Though the skill level is far below that in the States and Eastern Europe, O'Reilly has won multiple freestyle and Greco Roman wrestling championships. Additionally, the 'Badger' holds the rank of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt. While he is a serviceable striker, O'Reilly has a lot of holes in his game that can be exploited and it is by no means a serious threat. Historically he has shown to have they sufficient cardio and usually comes in to his matches well conditioned.

    Perhaps the best looking man in the UFC -- apologizes to Sexyiama and Rockhold --returns this weekend looking to make the Aussie crowd unhappy by besting their hometown fighter. A long fighter who at 6'0" tall with a 73.5 inch reach utilizes his frame efficiently by making the most of his physical attributes. This is done through his vicious Muay-Thai work which he excels at both on the inside or outside. Fighting out of the southpaw stance Jouban unfurls a rapier-esque a jab and sizzling leg kicks to all levels. As good a striker as Jouban is, he owns a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Eddie Bravo. This fact demonstrates "Brahma's" ground game is much better than the one submission win on his record indicates. The biggest problem for Jouban is despite being a pretty boy he doesn't mind getting into a slobber knocker of a brawl and this is a dangerous tactic. For the most part he has been able to withstand any shot he has taken inside of the octagon yet he is coming off a brain-scrambling knockout loss to heavy-handed Russian juggernaut Albert Tumenov. Given the outcome of his last fight I suppose that we will see him fight a bit more technically this time out. I mean, after all, the dude has modeling duties to fulfill.

    Fortunately for Jouban, he is taking a massive leap down in competition facing the Aussie. In short, he doesn't necessarily have to worry about the technical striking and power which the Russian possessed. Moreover, Jouban has advantages in every department pertinent to getting the win. The only area O'Reilly may best "Brahma" in is straight up wrestling which the 10th Planet products BJJ will nullify. Long story short, this is a mismatch and barring Jouban flat out not showing up, he should cruise two an a easy victory.

    Prediction: Brahma via HHK r1
     
  14. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Main card? Check
    Main card opener? Check
    Featured wmma bout? Check
    Popular local Aussie? Check
    High output fight? Check
    Likely to be back and forth? Check
    Likely to be long fight? Check

    Camannnn let's cash this +1000
     
  15. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Bec Rawlings vs. Seo Hee Ham
    Ham -125 Rawlings +105
    Eccentric Aussie Bec Rawlings is back fighting in her home country of Australia for the seventh time in her professional mixed martial arts this weekend. A serviceable striker, Rawlings looks to make every fight a grueling war of wills -- so to speak -- which as her record indicates has provided mixed results. While aggressive, Rawlings doesn't possess much pop in her punches as she instead aims for volume and accuracy. Rarely will you see Rawlings shoot for a take down or look to bring the fight to the floor. Incidentally, the 27-year-old does have an underrated Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu attack as she has finished four of her opponents via submission. Defensively her grappling has proven to be quite deft having never been submitted herself. Basically Rawlings wins her fights by being the more physical party and breaking her adversary's down over the course of the match. Moreover, her diverse jack of all trades's skill-set puts her in position to be comfortable wherever the fight takes place.

    Similar to her opponent, Ham is a solid all-around fighter who generally relies on her striking and aggression to win the day. Basically the 29-year-old is a pugnacious kickboxer who is constantly on her front foot taking the fight to her opponent. Like Rawlings, the South Korea native rarely opts to take things south opting instead to settle matters on the feet. Unleashing a torrent of kicks and punches, Ham is effectively seeking to please the judges given the lack of power in her strikes. In fact, 13 of her 16 victories have came via decision without ever collecting a single stoppage by strikes.

    At the end of the day this fight is ostensibly a coin flip that will almost certainly go the distance. At just 5'2" tall with a stunted 62" reach -- Ham is often undersized and can be bullied by the bigger person. As such, Rawlings will enjoy both a four and two inch height and reach advantage respectively. The 5'6" tall Rawlings and her 64 inch reach will be significant physical advantages in the Aussies favor to be sure. That said, Rawlings has proven herself to be an average fighter falling short every time she has stepped up in competition. Dropping fights to the lowly Heather Clark and an 18 year old Mizuki Inoue in two of her last three outings show this. Meanwhile, the South Korean fighter has reeled off six of seven with the only blemish being a short notice fight she lost against a very formidable Joanna Calderwood. Given the preponderance of evidence in its totality, it appears that while Rawlings has plateaued, Ham is continuing to evolve. As a consequence, I think Ham will be able to score enough on the feet to win a hard-fought split decision. Though I wouldn't be shocked to see the local product get a "W" in somewhat controversial fashion.

    Prediction: Ham via split decision
     
  16. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Love it, hit it too.
     
  17. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Dammit. Wish those FOTN lines was available in EU.
     
  18. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Leslie Smith vs. Rin Nakai
    Smith -140 Nakai +130

    After having her ear basically torn off of her skull the last time we saw her, Cesar Gracie fight team product Leslie Smith is back to put that horror show in the rearview. The Number three ranked fighter in UFC women's bantamweight division, Smith is a high-volume striker who gets stronger as the fighter progresses. Standing a lean 5'9" tall, Smith uses her height and reach very well. In particular she will lean on her opponent in the clinch and work them over with Muay-Thai striking. Specifically, striking inside telephone booth range her attack includes a stream of gut busting knees, slicing elbows over the top and lots of dirty boxing. Just a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Smith is not particularly known for being a threat in the grappling arts. What's more, you rarely if ever see her shoot for the takedown as her game revolves almost exclusively around her kickboxing output. Still yet, Smith has proven that she is able to defend herself if taken down and she also solid takedown defense. At 33 years old, Smith seems to be in the prime of her career and loves putting pace on her opposition and forcing them to wilt under the pressure. The main liability in Smith's game has been her penchant to get into a brawl rather than remain composed and trust her fundamentals. Her willingness to trade leather and eat lots of strikes often making it difficult to score in her favor.

    Nakai as been absent for a while, but the Judo Black belt is an absolute tank of a female. Just 5'1" tall, she compacts her 115 pounds into a severely tight frame. On the mat Nakai is a physical brute with a top notch submission grappling game. Highly without a background in gymnastics, will sawed-off Japanese juggernaut Will of the intensity with him she wants to bring her opponent to the floor. Whether it be a judo trip or toss or lifting them up with brute force, Nakai is quite effective at bringing her opponent south if she so chooses. From there, she is excellent at maintaining top position and possesses a lightning quick armbar.

    At the end of the day this fight is going to be dictated and subsequently decided upon which fighter is best able to implement their preferred range. If Smith is able to keep the Japanese fighter at a distance and potshot her with a plethora of straight punches from the fringe without allowing Nakai to close the distance I believe she has a great chance of winning a clean-cut decision. On the flipside however, if Nakai is able to worm her way into the pocket and clinch with Smith she will be able to work her judo trips/throws which give her a much better chance to get the upset. Ultimately, I am leaning on the latter happening as I think Nakai is quick enough to force her way inside and make the fight an ugly tussle. If Nakai can get Smith down then it is very likely that we see a arm-bar finish but at the very least she should be able to control Smith with her superior top game to win two out of three rounds.

    James Te Huna (-255 favorite) vs. Steve Bosse (+215 underdog)

    Coming off three consecutive losses James Te Huna makes his way back to the cage this weekend in desperate need of a victory. One of the few fighters not to get a pink slip after dropping three in a row, the native New Zealander must prove the ZUFFA brass was right keeping him around. Working against him is the protracted time he has been away from the sport. Indeed the 33-year-old has been away from action going on a full two years now. Negatives aside, Te Huna is a very solid and well rounded competitor with a deep repertoire of attacks. Among the array of weaponry in his striking arsenal is a stiff jab, a tight left hook and a dynamic uppercut which he lands with great consistency. Regardless of where the fight is taking place -- be it on the inside or the outside -- Te Huna is technical, accurate and packs a wallop in whatever he throws. A testament to his power is the fact that he has knocked out 10 of the 16 opponents whom he has bested. Though he makes his money on the feet, Te Huna is a serviceable grappler who will indeed shoot for the takedown if he can exploit a weakness in his opponents game. Still yet, the New Zealand banger generally prefers to keep things vertical and let his handiwork earn the checks.

    Having retired after exactly one fight in the UFC, former hockey goon Steve Bosse is back to erase the memories of his octagon debut. Making his initial foray in the preeminent mixed martial arts organization, Bosse was toasted by Muay-Thai wrecking machine Thiago Santos seconds into the first round. Undoubtedly the Canadian fighter wishes to rinse out such a sour taste in his mouth. That said, Bosse is a very limited fighter having basically no ground game to speak of. Additionally, the 34-year-old brawler primarily gets by with his ferocious power. Collecting eight scalps via knockout in his ten wins, Bosse has achieved such results by doing the exact opposite of what is taught. Rather than strike technical, Bosse aims to meet his man in the middle of the cage, plant his feet and try and land with one of those cinder blocks he calls hands. Bosse is certainly no stranger to throwing caution to the wind and just engaging in a good ol' donnybrook which is one reason the former hockey enforcer can't be counted out.

    This fight is teed up for the hometown crowd to get amped up as they'll be cheering for JTH in a match that seems destined to end suddenly but be fun while it lasted. Similarly the UFC is teeing JTH up with an opponent who is a very favorable stylistic matchup for him. Basically, unless Bosse can get to JTH's. chin early and catch him cold, the chance that he finds success in any other format seems unlikely. That said, I think JTH understands the importance of this fight and consequently keeps his hands up and chin down as he works for some sort of takedown. I envision JTH taking the path of least resistance and exploiting the canyon sized hole in Bosse's grappling.

    Prediction: JTH X Sub
     
  19. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Agree sham and Hunts TDD has gotten progressively better through the years where it is now very good. I went back and watched his fight with Werdum and he easily stuffed the champions TDAs. Same with BF too. Moreover, as he showed in the BF fight he has the cardio to go five rounds and still have power late in the fight.
     
  20. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    I have this exact same parlay SA

    Bol
     
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