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I don't see anyone in this thread claiming that Kimbo is a lock Cooler -- but instead they are saying that given the preponderance of evidence we have at our disposal Kimbo is definitely the overwhelming favorite and at his current odds hey does dictate a small play. Moreover, at his current line of -295 even the bookies are setting Kimbo up to be a lock but instead are giving him the implied probability that he wins three out of every four times that they fight. Given the fact that Shamrock is 51 years old and hasn't competed in a combat setting in five years and only has two wins in the last deck I was both of those victories coming against fighters who couldn't run a 20 yard dash without requiring a fully filled oxygen tank at the finish line. To believe that 51-year-old can't Shamrock is going to stroll in after I five year absence from any combat sport and take Kimbo out with his patented leg-lock is almost as preposterous as believing that he will also enter the cage by descending from Darth Vader's premier flagship of the Imperial Navy. Okay, Shammy stepping off of the Executioner to enter the cage is not quite that outlandish -- but close. 😋
Granted, any fighter who has as many technical vulnerabilities as Kimbo is most certainly never a lock no matter who they are fighting, but definitely they are not locks when they are fighting against submission artists. However, we are in this funny gray area in regards to Kimbo's hype vs. his true fighting ability. As cappers we must appropriately assess not just his own merits but how they stack up in contrast to his opposition. While Kimbo is not UFC level he probably is around the lower rung of the bellator HW ladder whereas Shamrock wouldn't even b on the middle rung of the Shark Fight's HW ladder.
Getting to my point, we cannot denigrate Kimbo's fighting ability so much as to where we start to lose value as bettors merely because we know that Kimbo has always been a "fraud" marketed to rubes by shady fight promoters as the "big scary black guy from the streets" capable of knocking out true mixed martial artists without putting in the same amount of training. Essentially, Kimbo is being bilked as Shaq's character from the 1990s movie Blue Chips -- the 7'2" massive black guy from Africa with the innate talent to play in the NBA Who some white American happens to discover.
I actually thought that this con had ran it's course long ago as everyone from the sleazy Shaw family to Dana White sold the circus act; yet (sadly) Scott Coker is dusting off an old ratings jewel he never got to play with at Strikeforce and is subsequently squeezing the last bit of fraudulent juice he can from the sideshow while it still has legs. 💰💰
Again though, as both fans and bettors of the sport we have to try to cap Kimbo from a fighting perspective and not let our biases lower the bar so far that we begin to lose value on him at the expense of our own bets. Subsequently, in this spot I don't think that we can take advantage of the casual fans ignorance and place a bet on Kimbo's opponent like we did when he was fighting in Elite XC and the UFC where he was entering EVERY fight as a big favorite with the hard-core fan knowing that as soon as he faced a legit opponent he would get tuned up.
For instance, I remember like it was yesterday when Kimbo came out a massive favorite over Seth Petruzelli and I put a big bet on Seth at +3xx as even on short notice I thought he had a way better than >25% chance of "upsetting" Kimbo. However, I got burned when I bet Houston Alexander to defeat Kimbo although not by much because that fight was a pick em' and my bet was small. But I did bet against him again when he fought Meathead as Kimbo once again opened as a near 2-1 favorite (IIRC) and I got MH at like ~+130. My point is, that these were good opponents to play as underdogs and fade the Kimbo hype -- conversely, Shammy is not that guy. One more thing, Barry and a few others I TT have mentioned the fact that Shamrock is "ripped and shredded" which leads me to ask -- "how many bodybuilders do we have as champions in MMA today or for that matter ever?" 💪 and/or 💉 do not equal mixed martial arts champion.
Indeed, like Ken today, past opponents like Tank Abbott weren't worth a play as they were virtual fish food for the company shark. Likewise, at 51 years old and a chin that holds up about as well as a clay pot in an earthquake - Ken's not worth a play. Of course if you do not want to bet Kimbo and just want action on the fight, I would not besmirch a flier just for the hell of it; but anything more than .3u is crazy given what we know. Can Ken win? Sure, anything can happen. Will he win? It is highly unlikely. What's more, as bettors, there are far better spots to make a flier bet on this weekend's MMA docket than on a +300 51-year-old Ken Shamrock whose body has taken more damage than a losing Pitbull in Michael Vick's dog kennel.
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